Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 291810
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
110 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...

1058 AM CDT

SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY KICKED OFF THIS MORNING WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING WEAK BUT UNCAPPED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POOR ACROSS THE AREA...AROUND 5 C/KM WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN SLOW GROWTH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND VERY LITTLE IF ANY
LIGHTNING THUS FAR THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN
THESE LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...DONT EXPECT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL INCREASE IN THE
SB/MLCAPE UNLESS WE SEE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER.
REFINED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING TO SHOW CURRENT LINE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CHICAGO METRO. THIS AFTERNOON...LACK OF ANY FOCUS AND ONLY
BROAD/MODEST ASCENT MAKES IT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS ON
TIMING OR AREA SO BLANKETED THE CWA WITH 35-45 PERCENT POPS.
UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DEUBELBEISS

&&

.SHORT TERM...
339 AM CDT

THROUGH SATURDAY...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NE IOWA INTO THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF
CHICAGO AND INTO INDIANA CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS DURING
THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE MID 50S
DEWPOINTS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL SOON BE REPLACED BY MUGGY 60S
DEWPOINTS.  ALOFT...A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WYOMING...WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT
MAXES EMBEDDED IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
EXTENDING INTO THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND EXTENDING BACK INTO MISSOURI IN
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST (PWS OF 1.5 OR SO). SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/EARLIER T-STORMS NEAR KGYY ARE OCCURRING OVER OUR
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER JET SEGMENT...ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW PER OVERNIGHT AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND
LOCAL VWP ANALYSIS. A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DO EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.

THE CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE PASSING OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVER
THE LAKE...WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHES IN THE WARM SECTOR BY
DAYBREAK. WE WILL BE UNCAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE TEMPERED. WEAK UPGLIDE ON 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES
ARE NOTED OVER NE ILLINOIS...SLIGHTLY BETTER OFF TO OUR WEST.
THEREFORE EXPECT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED OVER THE AREA
INITIALLY. THIS LIFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THESE SHORTWAVES
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. ATTEMPTING TO LATCH ONTO THESE WAVES IN
IOWA/MISSOURI AND AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FROM DECENT
AGREEMENT IN HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IN PROGGING SHOWERS TO
INCREASE LATE MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY. RECENT GUIDANCE IS BACKING
OFF A BIT ON THIS SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN STILL SUPPORTS
SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATER IN THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
ACTIVITY NOT LONG AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT
BEST. THIS IS INITIAL MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY DOES NOT
POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WOULD BE A CONCERN IN THE INCREASING HIGH PW AIRMASS.

CONCERN THEN INCREASES LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST THAT A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. WE WILL STILL BE UNSTABLE...THOUGH TO WHAT DEGREE WILL
DEPEND ON ANY EARLIER CONVECTION. THE FRONT WILL ALSO INTACT WITH
AN INCREASING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH THIS INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND MODEST
INSTABILITY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN DEEPER UPDRAFTS WITH MODEST 500-300 MB LAPSE RATES.
STILL COVERAGE ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA MAY BE TEMPERED AS THE FRONT
LINGERS TO THE WEST AND MAY BE ARRIVING A BIT PAST PEAK
TIMING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR.

BROAD WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS BEING DRIVEN BY A STRONG UPPER
WAVE IN SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXISTS WITH HOW QUICKLY
THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SPECIFICALLY WHEN COMPARING THE WRF-NAM TO
THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND ANY IMPACT OF SURFACE WAVES POTENTIALLY
SLOWING THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION OVER LAND.  IMPRESSIVE FGEN FIELD
WITH THE FRONT PER THE NAM MAY LEAD TO SOME FOCUSED MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GLOBAL MODELS PUSH THE CORE OF THE PRECIP
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE IMPACTS OF THE TIMING
OF THIS FRONT AND ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WILL DIRECTLY CORRELATE
TO WHETHER ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE THE
TEMPERATURE PROGRESSION AWAY FROM LAKE AREAS DURING THE DAY.

KMD

&&

.LONG TERM...
356 AM CDT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE A BIT QUIETER...AND
CERTAINLY INITIALLY MUCH COOLER. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...AND WILL ALSO FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NEAR LAKE AREAS ONLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 70 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. COOLER CONDITIONS MAKE LITTLE HEADWAY OUT OF THE AREA AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST MAINTAING AN ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD WHICH WILL ALLOW ONSHORE
WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND A WARMING AIR MASS EACH DAY.
LAKE BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY AS WELL...KEEPING LAKE AREAS
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY JUNE.

KMD

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

* WIND SHIFT TO STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY MORNING
  AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

* IFR CIGS/POSSIBLY LIFR/DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING.

* PERIODS OF RAIN AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
  THE AFTERNOON.

RC

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION AND TRENDS SUGGEST THIS GENERAL REGIME WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. DUE TO GENERALLY WEAK
INSTABILITY...NONE OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING OVER IL AND IN. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD BUILD TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
TSRA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS REMAINS LOW.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CLIP NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
IL THIS EVENING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN LIGHTER SW THIS EVENING.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOKS TO
ARRIVE WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER GIVEN UNFAVORABLE TIMING WOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE
THAN VERY ISOLATED TSRA SO HAVE PULLED THUNDER MENTION. AS WIND
SHIFT FROM LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO STRONG/GUSTY NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS
OCCURS MID- SATURDAY MORNING...MARINE AIRMASS DRIVEN SOUTHWARD
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...A STOUT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE AREA WILL GENERATE STEADY/OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
RAIN THAT WILL TAPER OFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AFTER THE WIND SHIFT...WITH GUSTS
UP TO ABOUT 30 KT FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS.

RC


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA OVER REGION THROUGH MID
  AFTERNOON...LOW IN DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS...LOW IN TSRA.

* LOW IN SHRA/TSRA TRENDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

* HIGH IN WIND SHIFT ON SATURDAY TO STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST
  WINDS...MEDIUM IN TIMING AND SPEEDS.

* HIGH IN IFR CIGS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING...MEDIUM IN
  TIMING...LOW IN LIFR.

* HIGH IN PERIODS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY...LOW-MEDIUM IN SPECIFIC
  VSBY IMPACTS.

RC

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
* MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

335 AM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 30 KT WITH SOME GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. COULD BE A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PREVAILING GALES. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE...SO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF 15-25KT IS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...LEAVING A
WEAKER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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