Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 282001
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
301 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH TIMING OF PCPN AND QPF FROM TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS. SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE NOT BEEN THE BEST THE PAST FEW DAYS. 12Z RUNS OF THE HIRES
ARW AND HIRES NMM WERE GIVEN THE MOST WEIGHT ALONG WITH RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR.

CURRENT ACTIVITY IS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT TIED TO A WEAK VORT MAX/
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE CIRCULATION COULD BE SEEN IN REGIONAL
RADAR LOOPS TRACKING OVER WESTERN IOWA. LOOK FOR MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY TOO MOVE OFF OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING...SO
LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MORE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE
INTENSITY OF THAT ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN. IT SHOULD GENERALLY
WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECT LOWS FROM 60 TO 65.

FRIDAY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN THE
MORNING. MORE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY 70S
BUT SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF NORFOLK. THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA. SOME SCATTERED POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE
GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR DRYING AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY...AND LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ON SUNDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD
REACH 65 TO 70...THEN 69 TO 73 ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT AS MAINLY DRY AS A MID TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. RIPPLES MOVING OUT OF
THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE NOT ZERO...BUT OPTED TO
LEAVE POPS AT LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OR LESS FOR THOSE PERIODS. DID
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS INTO ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN MAINLY CHANCE POPS ALL OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT 55 TO 60 THEN
MODERATE TO LOWER AND MID 60S. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S MONDAY
THEN MAINLY UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AVIATION FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EAST
COLORADO AS OF 17Z WAS PUMPING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH INTO EAST
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO KLNK AND KOMA AND
NOT INCLUDED THUNDER AT THIS TIME. VFR TO MVFR EXPECTED AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THOUGH A STRAY THUNDERSTORM MAY HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH...HAVE NOT
ATTEMPTED TO BRING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST UNTIL
AROUND 12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA AND KLNK...WHEN ACTUAL COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS TAF
SITES BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER


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