Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 191734
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1134 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Generally quiet weather is expected the next couple of days, and
temperatures will provide the main forecast challenges.

Main feature on the 300 mb chart from last evening was a 130 knot
jetstreak over AR into western TN. This was on the southern edge
of shortwave trough that extended from upper MI to IL and then
down into AR. 12 hour height falls at 500 mb were 90-120 meters in
that area. Farther west, height rises of 30 to 100 meters were
noted at 500 mb across most of the northern and central parts of
the Plains. A ridge of high pressure at the surface extended from
TX into western MN early this morning. That feature will move east
and southwesterly low level flow should strengthen over the
Midlands today, allowing highs to reach into the 50s.

South/southwest low level flow continues tonight with variable
high level cloudiness. Expect a decent range of lows tonight,
depending on where the low levels can decouple. Lows tonight should
mostly vary from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Weal low level warm air
advection continues Monday, ahead of a strong cold front that
will blast through Monday night. There are weak signals that some
light precipitation is possible, but will keep the forecast dry at
this time. Then a cold ridge of high pressure builds over the
area for Tuesday, with highs 35 to 40 north and 40 to 45 south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Winds should become light Tuesday night, and with good radiational
cooling, expect lows in the mid teens to around 20. As that
ridge moves east of the region Wednesday, southerly flow should
strengthen. Western parts of the forecast area should see some
warming Wednesday, but the rest of the area will have to wait
until Thursday.

Aloft, the pattern at 500 mb starts out fairly meridional, with a
ridge from off the coast of Baja up into western Canada. That
builds east through Thursday, then starts to flatten out. It then
amplifies again to our west over the weekend.

The 00Z run of the GFS painted a band of light precipitation from
northwest to southeast over parts of the forecast area Saturday
night, but the 00Z ECMWF was dry. Will keep a blend of the two
going for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR conditions through the TAF period with increasing patches of
bkn- ovc cirrus clouds. South to southwest winds 7 to 14kts this
afternoon...decreasing to 5kts or less after 00Z...then increasing
to 12+kts Monday after 16Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Zapotocny


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