Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 020755
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

TIMING OF OR INCLUSION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINS PRIMARY
SHORT TERM CHALLENGE. THROUGH MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST
WILL BUILD EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST BUT KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN NWRLY FLOW AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING
OVER IT...AS IS THE CASE THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK COMPLEX EDGING
INTO NWRN ZONES AS OF 07Z. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO PROBABLY
ALLOW AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT TO SETUP ACROSS FAR ERN ZONES BY
LATE TODAY AND POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY COULD
BE SHOVED TO SERN ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE IS PINCHED ACROSS NWRN
GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
ACROSS THAT AREA.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED TWO POSSIBLE WAVES
DROPPING SSE INTO OR NEAR FA. LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE
FOR THE SMALL PRECIP AREA ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD WAVE. ALTHOUGH
COULD ENVISION SOME LINGERING SHOWER/ISOLD CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THIS AFTN AS AN UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FA...FOR NOW
BANKED ON MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY WEAKENING.
HOWEVER...RENEWED DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN NWRN ZONES
AS ANOTHER WAVE...APPROACHING NW ND AT 07Z...DROPS SE TOWARD NEBR.
THIS WAVE WAS FORECAST TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL JET...OR
AT LEAST MORE FOCUSED INTO/ACROSS THE NRN FA TONIGHT COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING. THUS...WOULD EXPECT SOME SORT OF PRECIP CLUSTER IF
NOT AN MCS POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS THE FA...WITH NERN/ECNTRL
ZONES APPARENTLY MORE FAVORED. INCLUDED LOWER END CHANCE POPS THAT
AREA FOR NOW WITH A WEAKENING COMPLEX POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO SERN
NEBR SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING/DISSIPATING. SCENARIO COULD
REPEAT ITSELF SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL JET
IS FOCUSED MORE ESE OF THE FA. DID INCLUDE SMALL POPS ERN ZONES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT THEM IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH SHORT TERM. MAIN
ONES WERE TO RAISE THEM A BIT TODAY ECNTRL CLOSER TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM A BIT OVER YDA. ALSO
BOOSTED THEM A DEG OR TWO SUNDAY...MAINLY S...AS H85 THERMAL
RIDGE BULGES ACROSS THE SOUTH AHEAD OF WEAK BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS ERN NEBR. ANY LOWER 90S OR BETTER ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
RESERVED TO SRN ZONES AS ERLY FLOW LIKELY ACROSS
CNTRL/N...ALTHOUGH MINIMAL COOLING WAS NOTED AT H85.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

PATTERN STILL FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN MORE ACTIVE AS UPPER FLOW
FLATTENS ALLOWING HIGHER MID LEVEL/MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PUSH
ACROSS PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FORECAST TO EXCEED
1.5/1.75 INCHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY OVER THE FA WITH MAX SHIFTING
WEST TO EAST OVER SRN ZONES BY END OF THE WEEK. THUS MID RANGE TO
HIGH END CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. ALTHOUGH TUE YET LOOKS QUITE
WARM WITH LOWER PRECIP CHANCES...AND THEN MAINLY NRN/ERN FA...THE
CLOUDS IF NOT SCT PRECIP SHOULD BRING A COOLING TREND WED INTO
THU/FRIDAY AS TEMPS TREND FROM A LITTLE ABOVE TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR VISBY
STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY SAT MRNG. OTHERWISE SOME SHRA OVER NRN NEB
WILL TRY TO MOVE TOWARD THE OFK TAF SITE OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE
IN ANY PRECIP MAKING IT IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. BUT
AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVR
SD DROPS SEWD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



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