Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 071921
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
221 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure persists tonight. A cold front crosses early
Thursday morning, followed by much colder weather through
Saturday. Next system crosses Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 219 PM Wednesday...

A weaK high pressure will continue to provide dry and clear
conditions tonight. Satellite images show widespread clearing over
the region, and mid to upper clouds far away upstream. These
clouds could reach southeast OH by Thursday morning.

Clear skies, decoupled atmosphere and boundary layer winds at 5 to
10 knots, expect radiational cooling dropping temperatures into
the low 30s. This could produce frost instead of fog.

Low level ceilings could develop during the predawn hours early
Thursday morning. These clouds should dissipate by mid morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...

Colder air will infiltrate into the region on Thursday as an upper
trough deepens across the area. Temperatures will remain either
steady, or gradually fall as the day progresses on Thursday, with
light snow showers developing later in the day Thursday and Thursday
night, mainly across the higher terrain counties, with flurries
elsewhere. Friday looks to be continued cold, along with additional
light snow showers in favored upslope regions as a more favorable
northwesterly flow takes hold. Still looking at light
accumulations,Medium into Wednesday morning, then generally an
inch or two across the higher terrain, with little to no
accumulations elsewhere. Snow showers will taper off later in the
day Friday and Friday night, as flow becomes less favorable, and
weak ridging takes hold over the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...

Milder air to take hold over the weekend as weak upper ridging
builds in response to approaching sw trough/low pressure system,
which will spread light rain and snow showers back into the region
by late Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1150 AM Wednesday...
No changes necessary.

As of 645 AM Wednesday...

Morning stratocu will go MVFR at times this morning, before
mixing out this afternoon, as weak high pressure briefly builds
into the area.

As the next cold front approaches from the west tonight, mid
level clouds from the associated upper level short wave trough
will overspread the area. This should be enough to keep fog from
forming. MVFR to IFR stratocu may form in the mountains toward
12Z Thursday.

Light west surface flow will diminish today, and be calm to light
and variable tonight. Flow aloft will be light to moderate west to
northwest.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and occurrence of MVFR morning cu may
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR in possible snow showers Thursday through Thursday night in
the mountains,

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ


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