Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 252310
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
708 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through midweek. Cold front
to bring cooler temperatures but limited precipitation Thurday.
Another weak system by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

High pressure dominates the weather the start the week. This
will bring dry conditions with daytime highs well above normal.
High clouds, thanks to Hurricane Maria will linger during this
time. Morning river valley fog will be the only real weather
concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...

Temperatures will remain well above normal for this time of year
to start the period as the responsible upper-level ridge erodes
with an approaching trough from the West.

Autumn knocks on the door with great anticipation Wednesday
night through Thursday with a mainly-dry cold front moving
through the region from the NW to SE. Hurricane Maria will
continue to hang around the coast of North Carolina, and its
circulation effectively cuts the moisture feed into this area.
Pressure fields will be somewhat compressed in the eastern zones
due to Maria, so some gusts in 10-15 mph neighborhood can be
expected. What little low-level moisture exists will turn to
scattered cumulus cover in the cold-air advection behind the
front during the day Thursday with near-normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...

A progressive weather pattern dominates the long-term forecast.
A reinforcing shot of cold air behind another mainly-dry cold
front will sweep though Friday night into Saturday, with low-
level Great Lakes moisture struggling to make much headway into
this area. Long-range model consistency tapers off considerably
going into the next week with indications of generally
unsettled weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 705 PM Monday...

VFR conditions can be expected with the exception of some late
night/early morning river valley fog.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog may vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Morning valley fog possible through Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/MC
NEAR TERM...JB
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...RPY



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