Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 300002
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
802 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS MID / UPPER WAVE PASSES JUST
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND NO SURFACE FRONTS AS SEPTEMBER BEGINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK AS EVENING CONVECTION SLOWLY WANES.

PREV DISCN...
SOME SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR AS OF 17Z. HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SE OHIO AND IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD ON LIGHT SW FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS
AROUND...AND LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN US WILL DRIFT TOWARD
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WHILE THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH...DID UP POPS TO MID-CHANCE RANGE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE ARE SEEING TODAY. USED A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL 500 MB VORT MAX THAT MOVED UP FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...GETS SHEERED OUT TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING.
HOW FAR NORTH ITS INFLUENCE GETS...IS IN QUESTION.  LEFT SOME 40
POPS EARLY IN OUR SE... WITH 30 POPS ELSEWHERE EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING 30 POPS THRU THE NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

MOSTLY JUST 20/30 POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ON THE SENSITIVE NAM DO SHOW SOME
SKINNY CAPE TO 30 TO 35 THSD TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
LOWLANDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PCT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NO FRONTS IN OUR VICINITY...THE LONG
TERM WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER TIME PATTERN...DESPITE THE APPROACH
OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

WILL TYPE TO HAVE MOSTLY A DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM POSSIBILITY WITH
20/30 POPS MOST DAYS. OF COURSE...AS WE GET CLOSER...THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A DAY...WHERE WE CAN ENHANCE OR DECREASE THOSE POPS.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SE FLOW SATURDAY...SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES COMPARED TO FURTHER WEST..FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FIGURING A RELATIVELY DRY GROUND...WILL TRY TO HAVE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AOA GFS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE W AND FROM THE
S...WILL BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND...FOR
SUNDAY...SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE LESS FOG THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH IFR IS STILL FCST FOR EKN. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SCATTERED TO CODE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS OTHER THAN A VICINITY
MENTION IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

LIGHT SE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT S TO SW ON SUNDAY.
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM
MAY DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL ON SUNDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 08/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
SPOTTY IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS...MAINLY
IN WV AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM


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