Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 301744
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT
FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO THIS SUMMER DAY. A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING
BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA...ONLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO SEE
IF THIS CREEPS IN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR KCRW/KEKN WHERE VLIFR FOG WAS CODED UP.
THINK BL WINDS WILL HOLD UP REMAINING TERMINALS AND LIMIT THEM TO
LATE MVFR FOG.

ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH JUST SOME FLAT DIURNAL CU.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
10 KTS WITH SFC WINDS RELAXING TONIGHT. WINDS BACK AROUND TO MORE
WNW FOR FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE SFC.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BL WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...30



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.