Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 300612
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
212 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts through today, followed by a cold front
Thursday night and Friday. High pressure crosses Sunday. Next
system Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

High clouds will be on the increase early today as a surface low
and closed 500mb low cross the Central Plains. This will lift a
warm front through, with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible along the Ohio River and into
north-central WV. With SE flow at the surface, think precip
will have a hard time moving into the typical downslope zone
along I-79 from Charleston to Clarksburg. However the SE flow
could drive some light rain along the eastern slopes and
Appalachian ridge.

Precip will rapidly increase tonight as the surface low crosses
northern IN with a cold front pushing in from the west. This
will likely be the remnants of the strong to severe
thunderstorms expected in the Lower Ohio River Valley today. It
will be coming through overnight, a poor time for sustained
strong convection. However, should a good cold pool driven
convective complex already be ongoing, there is enough CAPE
(200-400J/kg) and shear (40-50kts) to keep a somewhat organized
line going as it moves in from the west with a potential for
damaging winds and some hail.

PWAT values of 1.0-1.3" indicate the potential of heavy rain.
Basin averages should be in the 0.25-0.5" range, but of course
there could be locally higher amounts which could approach an
inch. With current 3 hour flash flood guidance of around 1.5-2"
we should be able to avoid any significant water issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 PM Wednesday...

The next in the series of spring southern stream bowling balls
approaches Thursday night, and then rolls across Friday and
Friday night. Showers associated with the warm front may be
lifting up through the middle Ohio valley Thursday evening.

Otherwise, models, most notably the NAM, are slower with this
system, delaying the main round of showers and thunderstorms
associated with the cold front, so that, with the loss of
heating, thunder is more likely Friday than Thursday, albeit
more like morning and midday rather than Friday afternoon.

The system pulls out of the area late Friday and Friday night,
with upslope rain showers / drizzle lasting into Saturday. High
pressure brings some clearing Saturday night.

Temperatures and dew points in line with previous forecast and
central guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 420 PM Wednesday...

After a dry close to the weekend, the next spring southern
stream bowling ball approaches late Sunday night and Monday, and
crosses late Monday night into Tuesday, and the one after that
may already be approaching by the end of the day on Wednesday.
Temperatures continue above normal including behind the
cold front Wednesday, with central guidance staying largely in
line with the previous forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

VFR expected today, as with clouds on the increase. An isolated
to scattered t-shower is possible along the Ohio River and
across the eastern slopes, which could lead to restrictions but
confidence not high enough to mention at any TAF site. More
widespread rain will being moving in late tonight. Wind will
generally be SE to S through the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Could get some MVFR to IFR in t-showers
today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 03/30/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Thursday night
and Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...MZ


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