Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 231013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
613 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD
FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST VA IN THE
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY EWD TUE-WED. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CROSSES THE FCST AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE W MON NT THROUGH TUE NT. A S
TO SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR RESULTS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THE FCST STARTS DRY SUNDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. BY MON...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON OR
EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE NAM SHOWS A SFC TROUGH OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MON WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION
THERE VS FARTHER E.

THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH FROM THE W PREVENTS
THE CHANCE FOR1 PRECIPITATION FROM COMPLETELY VANISHING MON
NT...AND PROVIDES FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUE
THROUGH TUE NT. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TUE
AFTERNOON AND NT...A LITTLE LOWER FARTHER E....OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ENERGETIC THAN THE ECMWF AND WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST LIKELY POPS BY TUE NT.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...BEFORE LEVELING OFF...THE WARMEST
AFTERNOON BEING MON AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR BY TUE.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL IN LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE SEEMING A BIT LOW MON-TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES 18-23Z.

PATCHY MVFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY
AT KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER O6Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.