Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 230031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Aug 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 23-Aug 25 2014 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 23-Aug 25 2014

            Aug 23     Aug 24     Aug 25
00-03UT        2          2          2
03-06UT        2          1          1
06-09UT        2          1          1
09-12UT        1          1          1
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          2          1
18-21UT        1          2          2
21-00UT        1          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 23-Aug 25 2014

              Aug 23  Aug 24  Aug 25
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 22 2014 0628 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 23-Aug 25 2014

              Aug 23        Aug 24        Aug 25
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts
through the forecast period, particularly from Regions 2148 and 2149.


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