Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 290032
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Mar 29 0031 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 29-Mar 31 2017 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 29-Mar 31 2017

            Mar 29     Mar 30     Mar 31
00-03UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     4
03-06UT        4          4          4
06-09UT        4          4          3
09-12UT        4          3          3
12-15UT        3          3          3
15-18UT        3          3          3
18-21UT        4          4          3
21-00UT        6 (G2)     4          4

Rationale: An isolated period of G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is
possible on day one (29 Mar) due to elevated solar wind speeds
associated with a CH HSS. G1 (Minor) storming is anticipated early on
day two (30 Mar) due to continued CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 29-Mar 31 2017

              Mar 29  Mar 30  Mar 31
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 29-Mar 31 2017

              Mar 29        Mar 30        Mar 31
R1-R2           15%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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