Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 010031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Oct 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 01-Oct 03 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 01-Oct 03 2016

            Oct 01     Oct 02     Oct 03
00-03UT        5 (G1)     4          4
03-06UT        4          4          4
06-09UT        4          4          3
09-12UT        4          4          3
12-15UT        3          3          3
15-18UT        4          3          2
18-21UT        5 (G1)     3          3
21-00UT        4          3          3

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is likely to be at G1 (Minor) storm
levels on day one (01 Oct) as CH HSS influence continues. Weakening CH
HSS effects on days two and three (02-03 Oct) are expected as CH HSS
influences are anticipated to weaken to below G1 storm levels.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 01-Oct 03 2016

              Oct 01  Oct 02  Oct 03
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 01-Oct 03 2016

              Oct 01        Oct 02        Oct 03
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


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