Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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AXUS73 KGID 111429
DGTGID
KSC089-123-141-147-163-183-NEC001-019-035-047-059-061-065-073-077-
079-081-083-093-099-121-125-129-137-143-163-169-175-181-185-
121430-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
929 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO A SMALL PART OF THE
NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE JUNE 2014...

SYNOPSIS...

ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA HAVE
PERIODICALLY OBSERVED ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
DURING THE PAST TWO YEARS (PER WEEKLY ISSUANCES OF THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR)...FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JUNE 2014 A SMALL PORTION OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS RECENTLY BEEN DEGRADED TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS (THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA ENCOMPASSES 24 COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND 6 COUNTIES IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS). PER THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR RELEASED AUG.
11TH...THIS RELATIVELY SMALL/LOCALIZED AREA OF SEVERE DROUGHT IS
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ADAMS COUNTY ALONG WITH
NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEBSTER...EASTERN KEARNEY...AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES.

PLEASE SEE BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING CURRENT DROUGHT
CLASSIFICATION BY COUNTY...RECENT PRECIPITATION TOTALS WITHIN THE
MODERATE/SEVERE DROUGHT AREAS...AND A LOOK AHEAD AT THE SHORT TERM
AND LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS...

ABOUT THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT IS RELEASED EACH THURSDAY MORNING
AND IS PRODUCED THROUGH A PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA-LINCOLN...THE U.S.
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA) AND THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND
ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION (NOAA). THE DROUGHT MONITOR TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY OF EACH
WEEK. THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS OF DROUGHT: D1 /MODERATE/...D2
/SEVERE/...D3 /EXTREME/...AND D4 /EXCEPTIONAL/. ANOTHER
CATEGORY...D0...IS USED TO INDICATE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...WHICH IS ONE STEP BELOW MODERATE DROUGHT. IT IS ALWAYS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BECAUSE OF HIGHLY LOCAL VARIATIONS IN THE
SEVERITY OF DROUGHT...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ONLY PAINTS A
GENERALIZED "BIG PICTURE" OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND DOES NOT
NECESSARILY ACCOUNT FOR HIGHLY-LOCALIZED IMPACTS. FOR
EXAMPLE...IT IS POSSIBLE TO OBSERVE SEVERE WATER SHORTAGES OR CROP
FAILURES WITHIN AREAS NOT DESIGNATED AS HAVING SEVERE OR WORSE
DROUGHT...JUST AS THERE COULD BE LOCATIONS WITH ADEQUATE WATER
SUPPLIES WITHIN DROUGHT-INDICATED AREAS.

THE FOLLOWING IS A SPECIFIC BREAKDOWN OF DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION BY
COUNTY WITHIN THE NWS HASTINGS 30-COUNTY COVERAGE AREA...ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID AUGUST 9TH (PLEASE NOTE
THAT IF A COUNTY CONTAINS MORE THAN ONE CATEGORY...THE MOST SEVERE
ONE IS NOTED EVEN IF IT CLIPS ONLY A SMALL AREA):

SEVERE DROUGHT (D2): ADAMS...WEBSTER...KEARNEY AND CLAY.
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...IN SEVERE DROUGHT POSSIBLE
IMPACTS INCLUDE THE LIKELIHOOD OF CROP AND PASTURE LOSSES...AND WATER
SHORTAGES ARE COMMON.

MODERATE DROUGHT (D1):
FRANKLIN...BUFFALO...NUCKOLLS AND HALL.
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...IN MODERATE DROUGHT...SOME
DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURE IS POSSIBLE. SOME WATER SHORTAGES
DEVELOP OR ARE IMMINENT...AND VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY
BE REQUESTED.

ABNORMALLY DRY (D0):
SHERMAN...HOWARD...NANCE...MERRICK...HAMILTON...POLK...YORK...
PHELPS...FILLMORE...HARLAN...THAYER...PHILLIPS...SMITH AND JEWELL.
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...THE CURRENT ABNORMALLY DRY
CATEGORY DENOTES AREAS OF SHORT-TERM DRYNESS THAT IS SLOWING GROWTH
OF CROPS OR PASTURES.

OTHER LOCAL COUNTIES NOT LISTED ABOVE ARE CONSIDERED VOID OF DROUGHT
CATEGORIES AT THIS TIME (INCLUDING ABNORMALLY DRY).


CLIMATE SUMMARY (INCLUDING PRECIPITATION TABLES)...

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...RAINFALL TRENDS OVER THE LATE SPRING AND
SUMMER MONTHS HAVE BEEN RATHER VARIABLE ACROSS THE LOCAL SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AREA. VERY GENERALLY
SPEAKING...NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN THE STORY SO FAR
THIS SUMMER WITHIN MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...ALONG WITH SOME
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AREAS MAINLY NEAR/NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 92 CORRIDOR. FOR EXAMPLE...ORD NEBRASKA MEASURED A NOTABLE
11.40 INCHES BETWEEN JUNE 1-JULY 31 (173 PERCENT OF NORMAL).

HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN A VERY DIFFERENT STORY SO FAR THIS SUMMER
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HEART OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA CURRENTLY IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE/MODERATE DROUGHT ZONE. HERE...ONE RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITY AFTER ANOTHER HAS SEEMED TO "AVOID" THE AREA...FOCUSING
INSTEAD SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH...SOUTH...EAST OR WEST. TO HIGHLIGHT
THE LACK OF RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL FEW MONTHS IN THE AREA...PLEASE
REFER TO THE TABLE BELOW.

THIS TABLE SUMMARIZES TOTAL RAINFALL AND DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL/PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR EIGHT OFFICIAL PRECIPITATION STATIONS
WITHIN OR NEAR THE CURRENT SEVERE/MODERATE DROUGHT AREA...VALID FOR
THE ENTIRE TWO MONTHS OF JUNE-JULY. THESE DATA ARE PRIMARILY FROM
NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...ALONG WITH A FEW AUTOMATED AIRPORT
SITES. FROM THIS DATA...IT IS APPARENT THAT MOST OF THE
SEVERE/MODERATE DROUGHT AREA ONLY MEASURED BETWEEN 25-60 PERCENT OF
NORMAL RAINFALL FOR JUNE-JULY...HIGHLIGHTED BY A PALTRY 26 PERCENT
OF NORMAL NEAR BLUE HILL AND 29 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT MINDEN.
ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS EXTREME...THE TRI-CITIES AIRPORTS AT
HASTINGS...KEARNEY AND GRAND ISLAND ONLY MEASURED BETWEEN 39-55 OF
NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME (ALTHOUGH GRAND ISLAND HAD
CONSIDERABLY MORE RAIN IN JULY THAN IN JUNE).

                   RAINFALL
LOCATION         JUN 1-JULY 31    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  % NORMAL
--------           --------       ------   ---------  --------
BLUE HILL 4SW        1.95          7.54      -5.59       26
CLAY CENTER          3.04          8.10      -5.06       38
FRANKLIN             4.39          7.40      -3.01       59
GRAND ISLAND ARPT    4.15          7.70      -3.55       54
HASTINGS AIRPORT     2.97          7.54      -4.57       39
KEARNEY AIRPORT      3.99          7.21      -3.22       55
MINDEN               2.24          7.64      -5.40       29
RED CLOUD            3.42          7.31      -3.89       47


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

IT`S NOW TIME TO SWITCH GEARS AND LOOK AHEAD TO EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND EXPECTED CLIMATE TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS:

STARTING WITH THE MOST IMMEDIATE LOCAL WEATHER EXPECTATIONS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO (THROUGH AUG. 18): ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NWS
HASTINGS 7-DAY FORECAST...THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER ONCE WE GET BEYOND A HALFWAY DECENT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT AWAY THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
FORTUNATELY FOR DROUGHT CONCERNS...THERE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANY
MAJOR "HEAT WAVES"...WITH DAILY HIGHS AVERAGING MAINLY IN THE
80S...WHICH IS NEAR-NORMAL.

LOOKING OUT OF BIT FARTHER...THE LATEST 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) VALID AUG 18-24 FAVORS A
CONTINUATION OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR-NORMAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
POSSIBLY A VERY SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE NEBRASKA-KANSAS BORDER.

FOR THE UPCOMING FALL MONTHS OF SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER AS A
WHOLE...THE LATEST THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK FROM CPC (ISSUED JULY 21)
DOES NOT OFFER AN ABUNDANCE OF HOPE FOR APPRECIABLE RELIEF IN
DROUGHT-AFFECTED AREAS. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHILE PRECIPITATION-WISE THERE ARE
"EQUAL CHANCES" OF OBSERVING ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR-NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL VALUES. EQUAL CHANCES MEANS THAT LONG RANGE FORECAST TOOLS DO
NOT PRESENT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO SUPPORT ONE OUTCOME (ABOVE, BELOW
OR NEAR-NORMAL) OVER ANOTHER. MORE SPECIFICALLY REGARDING FALL
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING WARMER THAN NORMAL. HOWEVER...THIS STILL STILL MEANS THAT
THERE IS A ONE-IN-THREE CHANCE THAT THAT TEMPERATURES COULD AVERAGE
NEAR-NORMAL (WITHIN THE MIDDLE ONE-THIRD OF CLIMATOLOGY) AND A
SMALLER 17-27 PERCENT CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

FINALLY...THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK ISSUED BY CPC ON
JULY 21 AND VALID THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER INDICATES THAT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS COULD VERY WELL PERSIST WITHIN THE HEART OF THE CURRENT
SEVERE/MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE NO
"OBVIOUS" SIGNALS TO SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA OF DROUGHT WILL
EXPAND APPRECIABLY IN SIZE EITHER.

THE LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS ISSUED BY CPC AND REFERENCED ABOVE ARE
BASED ON OUTPUT FROM VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS AS WELL AS FORECASTER
EXPERTISE WHICH TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION ONGOING GLOBAL AND TROPICAL
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC STATES...RECENT TRENDS IN OBSERVED DATA AS
WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE
FORECASTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS (CPC)
WEB SITE AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL LIKELY BE UPDATED SOMETIME IN SEPTEMBER...AS LONG
AS SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST OR WORSEN WITHIN THE NWS
HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

TO REPORT EFFECTS OF THE DROUGHT IN YOUR AREA...PLEASE GO TO THE
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER AT: HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU AND CLICK
ON SUBMIT A REPORT.

DROUGHT INFORMATION FOR THE MEDIA MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/NEWSOUTREACH/INFORMATIONFORMEDIA.ASPX

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

NOAA DROUGHT PORTAL
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER
HTTP://HPRCC.UNL.EDU

USDA WEATHER AND CLIMATE PRODUCTS
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/

NWS RIVER INFORMATION
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS

USGS RIVER INFORMATION
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS PRODUCED THROUGH A PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA-
LINCOLN...THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA) AND THE
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION (NOAA).


QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT
THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
6365 NORTH OSBORNE DRIVE WEST
HASTINGS, NE 68901-9163
PHONE: 402-462-4287
E-MAIL: W-GID.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

PFANNKUCH


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