Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
452 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016

PRIMARY STATEMENT #2016P3a

...UPDATE to Drought Information Statement #2016P3 includes
updated drought conditions by county, new agricultural information
and drought disaster counties, new water restrictions and calls to
action, a wildfire status update, and updated medium-range
precipitation and drought forecasts...

...Extreme Drought Conditions Expand Across Northeast Georgia,
Upstate South Carolina, and the Southwest North Carolina
Mountains while Severe Drought Conditions Spread into the North
Carolina Foothills...

=====================================================================
SYNOPSIS...
=====================================================================

August`s above-normal rainfall has been erased by significant
deficits in September and October for most of the region.
Areas that experienced brief recovery from drought are
experiencing significant deterioration in soil moisture,
streamflows, and reservoir levels, exacerbating ongoing
agricultural impacts.  Drought conditions will continue to worsen
towards mid-November, but the latest weather guidance suggests
increasing chances for near-normal precipitation heading towards mid-
and late November which may slow drought deterioration across the
area.

=====================================================================
CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS BY COUNTY...
=====================================================================

Drought intensity from the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) occupying
at least 25% of surface area in each county is listed below...

------------
..GEORGIA...
------------

COUNTY       CATEGORY        INTENSITY       D1 DROUGHT
             AS OF:          AS OF:          BEGAN*:
             Aug| Oct| Nov   Nov. 01
             16 | 25 | 01

Elbert       D2 | D3 | D3    Extreme         05/03/16
Franklin     D3 | D3 | D3    Extreme         04/26/16
Habersham    D1 | D3 | D3    Extreme         04/26/16
Hart         D2 | D2 | D3    Extreme         04/26/16
Rabun        D1 | D3 | D3    Extreme         04/26/16
Stephens     D2 | D3 | D3    Extreme         04/26/16

-------------------
..NORTH CAROLINA...
-------------------


COUNTY       CATEGORY        INTENSITY       D1 DROUGHT
             AS OF:          AS OF:          BEGAN*:
             Aug| Oct| Nov   Nov. 01
             16 | 25 | 01

Alexander    NO | D0 | D0    Abnormally Dry  Not Begun
Avery        NO | D1 | D1    Moderate        09/20/16
Buncombe     D0 | D2 | D2    Severe          05/03/16
Burke        NO | D1 | D2    Severe          09/20/16
Cabarrus     NO | NO | NO    No Drought      Not Begun
Caldwell     NO | D1 | D1    Moderate        09/20/16
Catawba      NO | D0 | D1    Moderate        11/01/16
Cleveland    NO | D2 | D2    Severe          09/27/16
Davie        NO | D0 | D0    Abnormally Dry  Not Begun
Gaston       D0 | D1 | D1    Moderate        10/25/16
Graham       D1 | D2 | D3    Extreme         05/03/16
Haywood      D1 | D2 | D2    Severe          05/03/16
Henderson    NO | D2 | D3    Extreme         09/20/16
Iredell      NO | D0 | D0    Abnormally Dry  Not Begun
Jackson      D1 | D2 | D2    Severe          05/03/16
Lincoln      D0 | D1 | D1    Moderate        10/25/16
Macon        D1 | D3 | D3    Extreme         05/03/16
Madison      D0 | D1 | D2    Severe          05/03/16
McDowell     NO | D1 | D2    Severe          09/20/16
Mecklenburg  D0 | NO | NO    No Drought      Not Begun
Mitchell     NO | D1 | D1    Moderate        09/20/16
Polk         NO | D2 | D3    Extreme         09/20/16
Rowan        NO | NO | NO    No Drought      Not Begun
Rutherford   NO | D2 | D2    Severe          09/20/16
Swain        D0 | D2 | D3    Extreme         05/03/16
Transylvania D0 | D2 | D3    Extreme         09/20/16
Union        NO | NO | NO    No Drought      Not Begun
Yancey       D0 | D1 | D1    Moderate        09/20/16

-------------------
..SOUTH CAROLINA...
-------------------

COUNTY       CATEGORY        INTENSITY       D1 DROUGHT
             AS OF:          AS OF:          BEGAN*:
             Aug| Oct| Nov   Nov. 01
             16 | 25 | 01

Abbeville    D3 | D3 | D3    Extreme         05/03/16
Anderson     D2 | D3 | D3    Extreme         05/03/16
Cherokee     D0 | D1 | D2    Severe          09/27/16
Chester      D0 | D0 | D0    Abnormally Dry  Not Begun
Greenville   D0 | D3 | D3    Extreme         05/10/16
Greenwood    D2 | D1 | D1    Moderate        06/28/16
Laurens      D1 | D3 | D3    Extreme         07/12/16
Oconee       D1 | D3 | D3    Extreme         04/26/16
Pickens      D1 | D3 | D3    Extreme         05/03/16
Spartanburg  D0 | D2 | D3    Extreme         07/05/16
Union        D0 | D1 | D1    Moderate        10/25/16
York         D0 | D1 | D1    Moderate        10/25/16

DEFINITIONS...

D1 DROUGHT BEGAN: The date D1 conditions began for a given county.
                  If a county is upgraded to a combination of D0
                  AND no category for at least 4 weeks, then the D1
                  DROUGHT BEGAN date is reset.  For example, if a
                  county was in D1, then upgraded to D0 for 4 weeks,
                  then returns to D1 on the fifth week, the
                  DROUGHT BEGAN date is NOT reset because D0
                  conditions never ended and the county therefore
                  never fully recovered from the drought.

USDM CLASSIFICATIONS...

D0 Abnormally Dry:     - Going into drought: Short-term dryness
                         slowing planting, growth of crops or
                         pastures;
                       - Coming out of drought: Some lingering water
                         deficits; pastures or crops not fully
                         recovered;
                       - Streamflows below 30th percentile

D1 Moderate Drought:   - Some damage to crops, pastures;
                       - Streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some
                         water shortages developing or imminent;
                       - Streamflows below 20th percentile

D2 Severe Drought:     - Crop or pasture losses likely;
                       - Water shortages or restrictions common;
                       - Streamflows below 10th percentile

D3 Extreme Drought:    - Major crop/pasture losses;
                       - Widespread water shortages or restrictions;
                       - Streamflows below 5th percentile

D4 Exceptional Drought:- Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture
                         losses;
                       - Shortages of water in reservoirs,
                         streams, and wells creating water
                         emergencies;
                       - Streamflows below 2nd percentile

--------------------------------
..COMPARISON TO PAST DROUGHTS...
--------------------------------

The 2007-2009 drought was the worst drought for western North
Carolina, upstate South Carolina, and Northeast Georgia in terms of
severity and extent since the categorization of drought began in
2000.  For comparison purposes, the 2007-2008 drought began
(classified as the first presence of D1 conditions anywhere in the
region) in February 2007 and ended in early May of 2009 for a total
duration of 26 months.  During this drought there was an initial
intensity peak in late December of 2007, followed by a modest
improvement during the spring of 2008, but then the drought
restrengthened through the summer and fall of 2008 before gradually
weakening through the winter and spring of 2009. Cabarrus,
Mecklenburg, Rowan, and Union counties in North Carolina experienced
an earlier end to the drought from October to early December of 2008.

=====================================================================
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
=====================================================================
-----------------
..AGRICULTURAL...
-----------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Drought Disaster Counties
------------------------as of November 2, 2016-----------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

As of November 2, 2016:

STATE           COUNTY        TYPE

GEORGIA         Elbert        Primary
GEORGIA         Franklin      Primary
GEORGIA         Habersham     Primary
GEORGIA         Hart          Primary
GEORGIA         Stephens      Primary

NORTH CAROLINA  Graham        Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Henderson     Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Jackson       Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Macon         Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Madison       Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Transylvania  Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Buncombe      Contiguous
NORTH CAROLINA  Haywood       Contiguous
NORTH CAROLINA  Polk          Contiguous
NORTH CAROLINA  Rutherford    Contiguous
NORTH CAROLINA  Swain         Contiguous
NORTH CAROLINA  Yancey        Contiguous

SOUTH CAROLINA  Abbeville     Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Anderson      Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Greenville    Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Greenwood     Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Laurens       Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Oconee        Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Pickens       Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Spartanburg   Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Cherokee      Contiguous
SOUTH CAROLINA  Union         Contiguous

For more information on requesting assistance, please visit:
http://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/
disaster-assistance-program/index

---------------------------------------------------------------------

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
-----------------------

The primary agricultural impact for the entire region has been
severe to major damage to pastureland and consequently, severe to
major financial losses for cattle ranchers.  These will continue to
be the primary impacts as the growing season is winding down.  Hay
production and forage harvest is down 30-50% across the region.  The
second cutting of hay is widely reported to be half of what the first
cutting was this spring. Typically, producers will stockpile
cool-season grasses like fescue by letting it grow long to last
through December, but these grasses are not growing fast enough if
at all due to the lack of rainfall.

The lack of grazing forage has required livestock producers to feed
hay weeks to months earlier than normal (late October to early
November is typically when producers begin feeding hay).  If normal
rainfall does not return within the next few weeks, there will not
be enough time for pastures to recover to provide adequate grazing
forage through the winter.  Furthermore, the planting of cool-season
grasses for winter grazing will largely be unsuccessful as the
ground is too hard for seeding.  Thousands of acres are being left
unplanted.  As a result, producers will have to continue to purchase
hay, which is already in short local and regional supply due to the
widespread southeast U.S. drought.  This will only increase cost,
and may require some producers to sell animals to offset expenses.
Additionally, ranchers are moving cattle out of pastures or selling
cattle due to dried up ponds and a lack of adequate water. However,
the sale of livestock at premature ages may also reduce profits and
the bearish cattle market is driving sale prices down further.
Finally, reports of significant armyworm infestations in northeast
Georgia continue, which is also causing damage to forage crops.

Ranchers in the northern mountains, foothills, and northwest
Piedmont of North Carolina are faring better, especially if the
pasturelands are well-managed. However, farmers in these regions are
reporting late-season corn is not germinating due to the lack of
moisture.

While unirrigated or dryland crops were severely damaged throughout
the summer, irrigated row crops are being reported to have done
fairly well.  Nevertheless, soybean producers are reporting some
damage as pods and leaves drop due to the dry conditions and there
have been reports of disease pressures on late-season vegetable
crops.  In some areas, soybean production is down 50%.

The South Carolina Department of Agriculture is reporting that
usually 25% of the winter wheat crop has been planted, but this year
only 5% has been.  In North Carolina, Cherokee and Macon County
farmers are reporting dried wells and springs at a time when they
are needing irrigation to germinate wheat seeds.  Furthermore, trout
farmers are experiencing the lowest flows in recent memory.

-----------------
..RECREATIONAL...
-----------------

Several lakes within the region are experiencing reservoir
levels well below autumn pool targets.  As lake levels decline,
impacts to boat ramps, docks, beaches, marinas, and other
recreational areas across major lakes are increasing and closures
are likely.  Visitors are encouraged to contact reservoir operators
before travelling in order to stay abreast of specific access point
closures.

Visitors and residents to area lakes are being advised to take
greater care when boating, swimming, and fishing as the declining
reservoir levels are revealing additional obstructions such as rocks
and tree stumps or bringing underwater obstructions closer to the
surface.  Some lake coves are drying up to unnavigable and/or
unusable levels.  As a result, the reservoir operators are strongly
advising boaters to stay within the main channel whenever possible.
Declining reservoir pools and drying coves are forcing residents and
marina operators to move or close docks and relocate boats at many
lakes, including Fontana, Hartwell, and Norman.

Streamflows have fallen substantially across most basins within the
region since late August, yet reports of significant impacts to
stream canoeing, kayaking, tubing, or fishing across the region are
sparse.  Nevertheless, during periods of drought and reduced
streamflow, financial impacts to related businesses and tourism are
likely.  As stream levels fall, fish populations and catch will also
decrease as fish retreat to deeper water sources.

Most mainstem rivers and major tributaries within the drought
region are currently in the lower runnable to below recommended
ranges. The Broad, Chattooga, upper Enoree, French Broad, Little
Tennessee, Nantahala, Pigeon, Tuckasegee, Reedy, and upper Saluda
Rivers are all below recommended levels and should be avoided.
Users are advised to exercise caution along below-normal runs and
avoid below-recommended level rivers as additional protrusions
become visible or reside just below the surface.

-----------------------
..WATER RESTRICTIONS...
-----------------------

Keowee-Toxaway River Basin Status...
------------------------------------

As of October 2nd, 2016, the Keowee-Toxaway river basin is currently
in Stage 2 of the Low Inflow Protocol established by the
Keowee-Toxaway Drought Management Advisory Group.

Large water intake users, including municipal, industrial, and power
plant users, are required to reduce withdrawals from Lake Keowee by a
minimum of 5-10% from normal intake. This may impact the water
supplies of communities that rely on Lake Keowee.  Furthermore,
voluntary water conservation is encouraged for all other users of the
Keowee-Toxaway basin water supply.  Since August, residents on Lake
Keowee and Lake Jocassee are being asked to voluntarily reduce their
water usage for irrigation to two days each week (Tuesday and
Saturday).

For additional information, please refer to the following website:
https://www.duke-energy.com/lakes

Catawba River Basin Status...
-----------------------------

As of November 1st, 2016, the Catawba River basin is currently in
Stage 1 of the Low Inflow Protocol established by the Catawba-Wateree
Drought Management Advisory Group.

Water usage is being closely monitored and users are being asked to
voluntarily reduce irrigation to two days each week (Tuesday and
Saturday).

For additional information, please refer to the following website:
https://www.duke-energy.com/lakes

Little Tennessee River Basin Status...
--------------------------------------

As of October 20, 2016, several Nantahala and Tuckasegee River
basin reservoirs, including Bear Creek Lake, Lake Glenville,
Tanasee Creek Lake, and Wolf Creek Lake are in Stage 2 of the
Low Inflow Protocol established by Duke Energy.

This has the principal effect of reducing releases to conserve
remaining pool but may also impact water supply for any
municipalities or residents that rely on these lakes.

For additional information, please refer to the following website:
https://www.duke-energy.com/lakes

Savannah Basin Status...
------------------------

Since September 19th, 2016, Lake Hartwell, Richard B. Russell Lake,
and Lake Thurmond are in Level 2 of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers`
Drought Management Plan.  As reservoir levels decrease, impacts are
possible for local municipalities that rely on these lakes for water
supply.  The reductions in discharge from Thurmond Dam as a result of
the Level 2 status is reducing generation of hydroelectric power for
the Southeastern Power Administration.

For additional information, please refer to the following website:
http://balancingthebasin.armylive.dodlive.mil/

Water Restrictions...
---------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------- KNOWN WATER RESTRICTIONS ----------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

STATE            CITY, COUNTY, or PROVIDER   STAGE  TYPE

South Carolina | City of Union             | NA   | Voluntary
South Carolina | York County               | 1    | Voluntary
South Carolina | Greenville Water          | NA   | Voluntary

North Carolina | Asheville                 | None | Pending
North Carolina | Charlotte                 | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Concord                   | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Harrisburg                | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Hendersonville            | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Kannapolis                | 1    | Voluntary

---------------------------------------------------------------------

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

Asheville:      Officials are monitoring supply for potential
                restrictions.

Charlotte:      Irrigation only on Tuesday and Saturday, 6pm-6am,
                only 1-inch of water per week;
                No residential car washing;
                No pool filling, no fountains;
                http://charlottenc.gov/Water/Pages/
                DroughtCentral.aspx
Concord,
Harrisburg,
Kannapolis:     http://www.concordnc.gov/Resident/Community-
                News/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/882
Greenville
Water:          Outdoor watering only twice-per-week between 7pm and
                8am for no more than 10 minutes
                https://www.greenvillewater.com/
                dry-weather-leads-to-voluntary-water-restrictions/

York County:    Outdoor watering limited to only two days per week;
                Reduce outdoor washing

Hendersonville: Customers to reduce water usage by 10%;
                Preparing to connect to French Broad River to
                avoid Stage 2, Mandatory water restrictions pending
                State of Emergency declaration from North Carolina.

In the North Carolina mountains, there are reports of drying springs
and wells with residents having to rely on other residents for some
water needs.  Drying ponds are also impacting farmers and residents.

Calls to Action...
------------------

The public in encouraged to contact their local municipalities to
confirm the lack of water restrictions in their specific area.
Please be mindful of drought conditions in your area even if your
community is not officially under water restrictions.  Limit outdoor
watering and conserve water use indoors whenever possible.

--------------------
..WILDFIRE DANGER...
--------------------

Advisories...
-------------

The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) has issued a Fuels
and Fire Behavior Advisory for an Elevated Fire Danger across all
of western North Carolina, Upstate South Carolina, and northeast
Georgia.  Falling leaves are adding to an already over abundant
layer of dead plant material on the ground, raising the fire
threat.

The United States Forest Service has banned backcountry fires
in the Pisgah and Nantahala National Forests.

The National Park Service has banned all man-made fires in the
Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

Current Wildfires...
--------------------

There is one large incident fire ongoing in Jackson County, North
Carolina along Dicks Creek Road near Sylva within the Nantahala
National Forest.  As of November 4, 2016 the current burnt area is
374 acres and the fire is 80% contained. This fire has prompted Air
Quality Alerts for the area.

There is one large incident fire ongoing in Macon County, North
Carolina about 9 miles south of Franklin near the entrance of
Standing Indian Campground.  As of November 4, 2016, the current
burnt area is 175 acres and the fire is 28% contained.

Firefighters are battling several smaller wildfires across the
region, including within the Nantahala National Forest 3 miles
west of Highlands near Cliffside Lake Recreation Area.  A third
fire has just been fully contained in Burke County,
North Carolina, along Old NC 105 within the Pisgah National
Forest.  Additional small wildfires are likely across the region
through November.

Calls to Action...
------------------

Residents are encouraged to contact their local municipalities,
including their local county forest ranger prior to burning leaves
and yard debris.  Small leaf fires can quickly grow out of control
during periods of extreme dryness, as other vegetation and
decomposing organic materials on the surface are more prone to
ignition.  Please exercise extreme caution, monitor the latest
weather forecasts for lightning and winds and obey all local burn
ban ordinances for your safety and the protection of your
property.  Careless debris burning is the top cause of wildfires.

Smokers need to properly dispose of cigarettes as even the smallest
spark can ignite a wildfire. Campers should clear a 10 foot safe
area around their campfires and never leave campfires unattended.
All yard debris and camp fires must be completely extinguished
before unattending.

Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook...
----------------------------------------------

The Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook from the NIFC
calls for above-normal fire potential in November returning to
near normal for December 2016 and January 2017.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------- FIRE DANGER and KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) ---------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

              CURRENT         KBDI**     KBDI DEPARTURE
REGION*       FIRE            (10/28)    FROM NORMAL
              DANGER (10/29)             (10/28)

NC Piedmont   Moderate      |  201-600 | +200-400  Well Abv Nrml
NC Foothills  Moderate      |  401-700 | +200->400 Well Abv Nrml
NC Nrn Mnts   Moderate      |  101-300 | -50- +100 Slghtly Blw Nrml
NC Cntl Mnts  Moderate-High |  401-600 | +200->400 Well Abv Nrml
NC Srn Mnts   Moderate      |  501-700 | >+400     Extrmly Abv Nrm

SC Mnts/      Moderate      |  501-700 | >+400     Extrmly Abv Nrml
   Foothills
SC Piedmont   Moderate      |  401-700 | +200->400 Well Abv Nrml

GA NE Mnts/   Moderate      |  601-700 | >+400     Extrmly Abv Nrml
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   Moderate-High |  501-700 | >+400     Extrmly Abv Nrml

DEFINITIONS...

*A list of all counties and their assigned geographical region
appears near the end of the Drought Information Statement.

**KBDI and measures the impact of evapotranspiration and
precipitation on moisture deficiencies in the upper soil layer and
the layer of decomposing organic materials just above the soil.
A value of zero represents no moisture deficiency while a value of
800 is the maximum deficiency measured.  This means for a value of
800, it will take 8.00 inches of rainfall in 24-hours to reduce the
index to zero or saturation.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

=====================================================================
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE SUMMARY...
=====================================================================
-------------------------------------------
..OBSERVED WEATHER OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS...
-------------------------------------------

Late August through September
-----------------------------

The end of August featured isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms most days, with the greatest coverage on August 28th,
when numerous reports of wind damage were received across western and
central North Carolina. However, rainfall totals exceeding 1 inch
were isolated and only one report of minor stream flooding was
received, in Madison County.

Temperatures were 3-10 degrees above normal for most of late August
until September 2, when a cold front moved through the region in
advance of Hurricane Hermine and temperatures briefly cooled to
well-below normal. Hermine made landfall along the eastern Florida
Panhandle and moved NE along the Carolina coastline.  Her path kept
the majority of significant rainfall to the east of the area.  While
the mountains received only isolated to scattered rainfall totals
between 0.25 and 1 inch, much of the South Carolina foothills saw
less than a tenth of an inch. However, the South Carolina Piedmont
and southern North Carolina Piedmont counties did receive widespread,
beneficial rainfall of 1-3 inches from September 1st to September
3rd.

Following Hermine and through September 11th, the region was dry and
very hot with temperatures surging 5-15 degrees above normal into the
mid- and upper 80s across the mountains and in the lower to upper-90s
elsewhere.  From September 11th to September 25th, a few cold fronts
passed through the region, but rainfall remained insignificant for
most and high temperatures generally remained 3-10 degrees above
normal.

The weather was more active across the region for late September as a
warm front moved through the area on September 26th followed by a
cold front which stalled across the region from September 27th
through September 29th.  The deep moisture following the warm front
resulted in widespread 1-2 inch rainfall across the southern NC
Piedmont and adjacent counties around the Charlotte metro area.
Isolated total accumulations of 2-4 inches in Mecklenburg County
resulted in minor flash flooding.  However, the mountains only saw
widespread 0.50-1 inch accumulations with very isolated heavier
amounts, while most of the South Carolina Upstate and Northeast
Georgia received little (<0.50") to no rainfall.  Temperatures
during the event persisted at 5-10 degrees above normal.

October
-------

The primary rainfall event in October was Hurricane Matthew, which
traveled along the Florida, Georgia, and Carolina coastlines to the
east of our area from October 7th to October 9th.  Like Hermine, the
heaviest rainfall occurred east of our area and the most widespread
rain actually fell in advance of Matthew on October 7th, where
0.25-0.75 inches fell across northeast Georgia, Upstate South
Carolina and the North Carolina mountains and foothills, while
widespread 1-2 inches fell from Cherokee and Union County South
Carolina east and north into the eastern Piedmont of South Carolina
and the Charlotte metro area and adjacent counties.  Parts of the
northern North Carolina foothills and the South Carolina mountains
also saw widespread 1-2 inch totals due to favorable upslope flow.
As Matthew passed by to the east on October 8th, another 0.75-2
inches fell across the eastern South Carolina Piedmont,  the
Charlotte metro area, and the northwest North Carolina Piedmont for
total accumulations of 3-4 inches across these regions.

High temperatures in advance of Matthew during early October remained
above normal, peaking 5-8 degrees above normal on October 4th.  Again
like Hermine, as Matthew passed to the east, high temperatures
briefly cooled to a few degrees below normal on October 8th, though
it remained quite humid.

Following Matthew, the area was extremely dry for the remainder of
October, with the only widespread rainfall across the central and
northern North Carolina mountains where accumulations were less than
0.25 inches. High temperatures remained near or slightly above normal
for most days through October 15th, but surged to a record-setting
10-17 degrees above normal through the 20th.  A strong and windy
autumn cold front quickly cooled off the region with high
temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal on October 23rd, however, the
final days of October 2016 saw the return to well above-normal high
temperatures.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------- ESTIMATED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS --------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

              60-DAY                    DEPARTURE        60-DAY
              OBSERVED    60-DAY        FROM             PERCENT OF
REGION        PRECIP      NORMAL        NORMAL           NORMAL
              (in)        (in)          (in)             (%)

NC Piedmont   2.00-11.00 | 4.00- 6.00 | -5.00 to + 4.00 | 25-175
NC Foothills  0.75-7.00  | 6.00-10.00 | -1.00 to - 8.00 |  5- 75
NC Nrn Mnts   1.75-5.50  | 6.00-10.00 | -2.00 to - 7.00 | 25- 75
NC Cntl Mnts  1.00-4.00  | 4.00-11.00 | -2.00 to - 8.00 | 10- 50
NC Srn Mnts   1.00-4.50  | 6.00-13.00 | -1.50 to -12.00 |  5- 50

SC Mnts/      0.01-4.00  | 7.00-12.00 | -5.00 to -10.00 |  1- 50
   Foothills
SC Piedmont   1.50-8.00  | 6.00- 8.00 | -6.00 to + 5.00 | 10-175

GA NE Mnts/   0.50-4.00  | 8.00-13.00 | -6.00 to -12.00 |  5- 25
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   0.01-2.50  | 6.00- 9.00 | -4.00 to - 8.00 |  0- 50
---------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------- RECORDS BROKEN OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS ----------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                                     NEW     PREVIOUS
DATE    SITE          TYPE           RECORD  RECORD (YEAR)

09/19 | AVL Airport | High Min Temp  | 67    | 66    (1998)
09/24 | AVL Airport | Max Temp       | 90    | 89    (1895)
09/26 | CLT Airport | Daily Precip   | 3.89" | 2.54" (1956)
09/30 | Carnesville | Monthly Precip | 0.15" | 0.35" (1984)
10/18 | GSP Airport | Max Temp       | 86 T  | 86    (1938)
10/19 | AVL Airport | Max Temp       | 84    | 83    (1938)
10/19 | CLT Airport | Max Temp       | 89    | 87    (1938)
10/19 | GSP Airport | Max Temp       | 89    | 87    (1941)
10/20 | AVL Airport | Max Temp       | 84    | 83    (1985)
10/20 | GSP Airport | Max Temp       | 87    | 86    (1899)
10/29 | AVL Airport | Max Temp       | 81    | 79    (1946)
10/29 | GSP Airport | Max Temp       | 84 T  | 84    (1927)
10/30 | GSP Airport | Max Temp       | 86    | 83    (1950)

DEFINITIONS:

T = Tied

---------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------- MEASURED RAINFALL FOR AUGUST 2016 ------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                              AUG   DEPT.     %
                             2016   FROM     OF  DRIEST     WET
CITY          COUNTY       PRECIP   NRML   NRML    RANK    RANK
                             (in)   (in)    (%)

GEORGIA
Carnesville | Franklin    | 2.98 | -0.98 |   75 | >25th | >25th
Clayton     | Rabun       | 7.00 | +1.16 |  120 | >25th | >25th
Elberton    | Elbert      | 3.49 | -0.62 |   85 | >25th | >25th
Toccoa      | Stephens    | 5.08 |  0.00 |  100 | >25th | >25th

NORTH CAROLINA
AVL Airport | Buncombe    | 6.65 | +2.25 |  151 | >25th |  16th
CLT Airport | Mecklenburg | 1.88 | -2.34 |   45 |  13th | >25th
Hickory     | Catawba     | 2.63 | -1.47 |   64 |  17th | >25th
Lenoir      | Caldwell    | 6.53 | +2.61 |  167 | >25th | >25th
Lincolnton  | Lincoln     | 3.13 | -1.37 |   70 | >25th |  25th
Marshall    | Madison     | 4.73 | +0.88 |  123 | >25th | >25th
Salisbury   | Rowan       | 3.21 | -0.12 |   96 | >25th | >25th
Tryon       | Polk        | 8.72 | +2.54 |  141 | >25rd |  23rd
Waynesville | Haywood     | 4.24 | +0.04 |  101 | >25th | >25th

SOUTH CAROLINA
Anderson    | Anderson    | 2.50 | -1.29 |   66 | >25th | >25th
GSP Airport | Spartanburg | 4.37 | -0.11 |   98 | >25th |  22nd
Laurens     | Laurens     | 3.29 | -0.51 |   87 | >25th | >25th
Rock Hill   | York        | 1.09 | -3.25 |   25 |   3rd |  16th
Walhalla    | Oconee      | 7.12 | +1.67 |  131 | >25th | >25th

---------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------- MEASURED RAINFALL FOR SEPTEMBER 2016 ----------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                              SEP   DEPT.     %
                             2016   FROM     OF  DRIEST     WET
CITY          COUNTY       PRECIP   NRML   NRML    RANK    RANK
                             (in)   (in)    (%)

GEORGIA
Carnesville | Franklin    | 0.15 | -3.93 |    4 |   1st | >25th
Clayton     | Rabun       | 0.99 | -4.95 |   17 |  11th | >25th
Elberton    | Elbert      | 1.79 | -1.78 |   50 | >25th | >25th
Toccoa      | Stephens    | 0.76 | -3.94 |   16 |  10th | >25th

NORTH CAROLINA
AVL Airport | Buncombe    | 0.58 | -3.23 |   15 |   4th | >25th
CLT Airport | Mecklenburg | 5.44 | +2.20 |  168 | >25th |  14th
Hickory     | Catawba     | 1.13 | -2.58 |   30 |   9th | >25th
Lenoir      | Caldwell    | 1.96 | -2.23 |   47 |  24th | >25th
Lincolnton  | Lincoln     | 3.15 | -0.30 |   91 |  24th | >25th
Marshall    | Madison     | 1.04 | -2.12 |   33 |  14th | >25th
Salisbury   | Rowan       | 2.42 | -0.91 |   73 | >25th | >25th
Tryon       | Polk        | 0.13 | -5.25 |    2 |   3rd | >25th
Waynesville | Haywood     | 1.26 | -2.68 |   32 |  18th | >25th

SOUTH CAROLINA
Anderson    | Anderson    | 1.05 | -2.79 |   27 |   8th | >25th
GSP Airport | Spartanburg | 0.99 | -2.44 |   29 |   4th | >25th
Laurens     | Laurens     | 3.04 | -0.48 |   86 | >25th | >25th
Rock Hill   | York        | 2.15 | -1.36 |   61 |   6th |  13th
Walhalla    | Oconee      | 2.33 | -2.70 |   46 | >25th | >25th

---------------------------------------------------------------------

=====================================================================
PRECIPITATION and TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK*...
=====================================================================

* The weather, temperature, and precipitation outlook is based
on the best available guidance and weather pattern analysis at
the issuance time of this statement.

For the LATEST FORECAST for the region, please visit:
http://weather.gov/gsp
and enter your zip code or click on the Watch, Warning, and
Advisories (WWA) map.

For the LATEST DISCUSSION for the region, please visit:
http://weather.gov/gsp
and click on the Forecaster`s Discussion link below the WWA map

---------------------------
..7-DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK*...
---------------------------

Little to no rainfall is expected through November 11th, as high
pressure continues to dominate the southeast U.S., and any cold
fronts lack the significant ocean moisture necessary produce
appreciable rainfall.  In the lower levels of the atmosphere, the
clockwise flow around the persistent high pressure results in
northeasterly to easterly flow across the Atlantic and Gulf of
Mexico. This prevents any moisture from these bodies of water from
moving north into our region.  Aloft, the ridge of high pressure
which has dominated the summertime pattern is finally starting
to break down.  Sinking air characteristic of a deep ridge of high
pressure warms as it descends resulting in the warm to hot surface
temperatures. Sinking air also prevents cloud formation and rainfall,
resulting in dry weather.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------  7-DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST --------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

              Forecasted   NORMAL       Departure
REGION        Precip       PRECIP       from Normal
              (in)         (in)         Classification

NC Piedmont   0.01-0.25 |  0.50-1.00 |  Well-Below Normal
NC Foothills  0.10-0.50 |  0.50-1.00 |  Below Normal
NC Nrn Mnts   0.10-0.50 |  0.25-1.00 |  Below Normal
NC Cntl Mnts  0.01-0.25 |  0.25-1.00 |  Well-Below Normal
NC Srn Mnts   0.01-0.10 |  0.50-1.50 |  Well-Below Normal

SC Mnts/      0.01-0.10 |  0.50-1.25 |  Well-Below Normal
   Foothills
SC Piedmont   0.01-0.25 |  0.50-1.00 |  Well-Below Normal

GA NE Mnts/   0.01-0.10 |  0.75-1.50 |  Well-Below Normal
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   0.01-0.10 |  0.50-1.00 |  Well-Below Normal
---------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------
..8-14-DAY OUTLOOK*...
----------------------

For the latest 8-14 Day Outlook, please visit:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day

Overall, near-normal precipitation and near-normal to slightly
below-normal temperatures are currently forecast for the 8-14 day
period.

----------------------
..ONE-MONTH OUTLOOK...
----------------------

Typically, during the month of November the region begins to see
stronger, more potent cold fronts, resulting in cooler temperatures
and increasing precipitation.  This is especially true heading into
late November, as weather systems dive further south into the
Southeast and tap into the abundant moisture arriving from the Gulf
of Mexico.

The latest guidance suggests that chances for near-normal to
above-normal precipitation are improving for the 8-21 day period
(November 12th-25th).  This trend will be closely monitored as it
may help to slow or even slightly improve drought conditions across
the area.  The CPC currently suggests as much as a 50-55% chance of
above-normal precipitation during this period for the area.  There
is no clear signal for above-normal or below-normal temperatures at
this time.

------------------------
..THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK...
------------------------

For the period of November 2016 through January 2017, there is an
approximately 30-50% chance for below-normal precipitation and
a 30-40% chance for above-normal temperatures.  This guidance is
largely the result of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
forecast discussed below.

----------------------------------------
..El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)...
----------------------------------------

The eastern Pacific is currently ENSO-Neutral, which means that the
sea surface temperatures near the equator in the central and
east-central Pacific Ocean are only slightly below average.  However,
heading into November and December, the Climate Prediction Center is
forecasting a 70% chance of La Nina conditions developing.

Comparisons to past La Nina events suggest the southeast U.S.
may experience a warmer and drier late fall and winter; however, this
is not a guarantee as not all previous La Nina events resulted in
warmer and drier conditions.  The warmer and drier conditions result
from a jet stream that is, on average, further north than normal, and
a somewhat persistent ridge of high pressure over the southeast U.S.,
making it more difficult for the southeast U.S. to experience the
large-scale forcing and lift needed for widespread rainfall.
However, our region will be closer to the retreating jet stream and
for us the signal for a drier and warmer winter is not as strong.

Furthermore, CPC is forecasting only a 55% chance that La Nina
conditions will persist during the winter months, which means that
there is a 45% chance La Nina conditions will end before March 2017.
Therefore, there remains a fair chance that our winter will be closer
to normal or even above normal in terms of precipitation and/or
temperatures. This chance is greatest over the North Carolina
mountains.  Regardless and as always, individual weather systems will
have to be closely monitored as we approach the winter months, as
there are many other atmospheric signals that cannot be predicted
months in advance that will also have an influence on our weather.

=====================================================================
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY and OUTLOOK...
=====================================================================

Despite a noted improvement in streamflows for parts of our area from
mid-July through early August, since mid-August, streamflows have
dropped to well-below normal levels due to the lack of appreciable
rainfall across most of the area. The exception to date has been
across the South Carolina eastern Piedmont and the North Carolina
northwest Piedmont where rainfall was above-normal through early
October.  However, even across that region, rainfall has ceased since
Hurricane Matthew and streamflows may begin to drop back to below
normal over the next month if additional, normal rainfall does not
occur.

As a result of the below-normal rainfall, only a few, isolated flood
events were observed over the past 60-days.  These events were minor
and had minimal impact on the ongoing drought conditions.  The most
significant flash flooding occurred in the city of Charlotte on
September 28th when several streamgauges reached minor flood stage
in response to 2-4 inches of rainfall in less than 6 hours.  The
flooding resulted in a few closed roadways and flooded some parking
lots, causing damage to vehicles.

With below-normal precipitation forecasted through November and into
December, streamflows will continue to fall across the region and the
likelihood for mainstem flooding remains near-zero.  There will be
increased stress on water supplies and related recreational
activities and additional streams may reach near record low flows.
Heading into late December and the winter months of 2017, some
recovery of streamflows is possible as the chances below-normal
precipitation decrease.  During this time, the chance for flooding of
mainstem and larger tributaries may also increase.

--------------------
..IMPORTANT NOTES...
--------------------

It is very important to note that flash flooding and flooding
of smaller tributaries is still very possible during periods of
drought.  Several important and damaging flash floods have
were observed this past summer despite the drought.  Residents are
strongly encouraged to heed related flood advisories and warnings,
even during significant drought.

The late fall and winter months are a critical time for the water
system as widespread winter precipitation normally restores
streamflows and reservoir levels following the spotty, convective
nature of precipitation during the summer and the drier weeks of
early fall.  This recharge of the water system is critical for
adequate water supply heading into the late spring and summer of
2017.  When the winter begins in a significant drought, it takes a
greater amount of precipitation to adequately complete this recharge.

-----------------
..GROUNDWATER*...
-----------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------ GROUNDWATER WELL MEASUREMENTS --------------------
---------------- Depth Below Ground Surface in Feet -----------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                                             CHANGE***RECORD
                              DEPTH*  OCT**  SINCE    LOWEST and
                              10/30   MEDIAN 8/21     LEVEL  DATE
COUNTY       CITY             (ft)    (ft)   (ft)     (ft)

Burke      Glen Alpine      13.21 | 12.42 | +0.74 | 13.84, 09/04/11
Caldwell     Granite Falls    23.54 | 21.84 | +3.67 | 24.38, 11/18/11
Catawba      Oxford Resrch St 39.59 | 40.40 | +0.89 | 42.09, 01/14/13
Gaston       Pasour Mtn       38.32 | 37.70 | +4.06 | 44.66, 01/31/13
McDowell     Pleasant Gardens 31.05 | 29.26 | +1.51 | 31.89, 11/29/10
Union (NC)   Mineral Springs  37.43 | 40.19 | +0.42 | 42.70, 01/10/13
York         York Co Airport  25.92 | 26.59 | +2.33 | 29.69, 12/13/12

                                     CHANGE***        RECORD
                              DEPTH* SINCE    %ile    LOWEST  and
                              10/30  8/21     ****    LEVEL   DATE
COUNTY       CITY             (ft)   (ft)             (ft)


Chester      Leeds Road       84.98 | -0.43 | 100th | 94.52, 01/12/14
Davie        Mocksville       18.60 | +1.09 | 50-75 | 23.15, 08/30/02
Haywood     near Cruso        6.69 | +0.70 | <10th |  6.96, 09/12/02
Iredell     Langtree         27.59 | +1.90 | 10-25 | 32.90, 06/21/16
Oconee       Oconee Statn Rd  29.32 | +0.55 | 25-50 | 32.08, 12/31/08
Rowan        Barber            8.07 | -0.34 | 50-75 | 11.15, 09/14/02
Spartanburg  Croft State Park 44.74 | +0.17 | 25-50 | 51.69, 03/17/13
Transylvania Blantyre         29.82 | +2.24 | 50-75 | 42.19, 12/12/08
Transylvania Pisgah Forest    17.33 | +1.46 | <10th | 17.86, 08/25/08

DEFINITIONS:

* DEPTH  = Note that groundwater is measured as depth below the
           surface, unlike streamflow and reservoir data which is the
           reverse or height above the surface.  Therefore, the
           higher the depth value, the less the groundwater supply
           because the groundwater level is further from the surface.

**MEDIAN  = Current depth values that are larger than the monthly
            median can be loosely correlated to drier-than-normal
            conditions while current depth values that are smaller
            than the monthly median can be loosely correlated to
            wetter-than-normal conditions.

***CHANGE = A POSITIVE CHANGE means the groundwater depth has
            increased or is further from the surface.  Therefore,
            a NEGATIVE CHANGE means the groundwater depth has
            decreased or is closer to the surface.  In periods of
            drought, negative changes are ideal.  However, positive
            changes are NORMAL during the late summer and early fall,
            as rainfall is typically isolated to scattered and less
            significant, causing losses to surface and subsurface
            water sources due to increased evapotranspiration,
            evaporation, and increased consumption, while negative
            changes are NORMAL during the late fall and winter, as
            widespread significant precipitation recharges surface
            and subsurface water sources and environmental demands
            are lower.

****PERCENTILE = The percentile (%ile) values can be interpreted as
                 follows:

Less than 10th percentile    - Well-Below Normal
10th-25th percentile         - Below Normal
25th-50th percentile         - Slightly Below Normal/Near Normal
50th-75th percentile         - Slightly Above Normal/Near Normal
75th-90th percentile         - Above Normal
Greater than 90th percentile - Well-Above Normal

---------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------
..SOIL and CROP MOISTURE*...
----------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------- CPC SOIL/CROP MOISTURE ESTIMATES (1600-mm Depth) ----------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

              10/30         10/30                 10/22
              SOIL          SOIL      CHANGE      SHORT-TERM
              MOISTURE      MOISTURE  FROM        CROP MOISTURE
              ANOMALY       %ile      SEP 30      INDEX
REGION        (mm)          (%)       (mm)

NC Piedmont   - 20 to - 80 |20- >30| -10 to -40 | -1 to +1, Near-Nrml
NC Foothills  - 30 to -120 |  5-20 | -30 to -50 |  0 to -2, Slight
NC Nrn Mnts   - 60 to - 80 | <1-10 | -40 to -50 |  0 to -2, Slight
NC Cntl Mnts  - 80 to -120 | <1- 5 | -40 to -60 | -1 to -2, Slight
NC Srn Mnts   -100 to -140 | <1- 5 | -40 to -60 | -1 to -2, Slight

SC Mnts/      -100 to -140 | <1-10 | -40 to -60 | -1 to -3, Excessive
   Foothills
SC Piedmont   - 40 to -120 |  5-40 | -10 to -60 |  0 to -3, Slight

GA NE Mnts/   -130 to -150 |   < 1 | -50 to -60 | -2 to -3, Excessive
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   -120 to -150 |  1-10 | -50 to -60 | -2 to -3, Excessive

DEFINITIONS:

*EVAPOTRANSPIRATION = The loss of moisture from the soil to the
                      atmosphere plus the loss of moisture from the
                      soil to vegetation.

*INTERPRETATION = Note that above-normal temperatures and
                  below-normal precipitation exacerbate the loss of
                  soil moisture through evapotranspiration, while
                  below-normal temperatures and above-normal
                  precipitation mitigates soil-moisture deficits.
                  However, heading into fall and winter, cooler
                  temperatures and less-active or dormant vegetation
                  reduce demands on the water system and while still
                  important, the effects of above-normal temperatures
                  and below-normal precipitation are lessened.

**CROP MOISTURE = Depicts short-term (< 1 month) dryness or wetness
  INDEX           impacting agriculture.  Negative values indicate
                  dryness, while positive values indicate wetness.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------
..STREAMFLOW*...
----------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------- 28-DAY AVERAGE USGS STREAMFLOW PERCENTILES BY REGION --------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                % OF     %ILE    CLASSIFICATION
REGION          NORMAL
                (10/30) (10/30)  (10/30)

NC Piedmont      4-169 |  2-82 | Below Normal
NC Foothills    26- 50 | 11-26 | Below Normal
NC Nrn Mnts     10- 25 | 27-39 | Below Normal
NC Cntl Mnts    28- 36 |  1- 9 | Near-Record Lows
NC Srn Mnts     25- 45 |  1-21 | Well-Below Normal

SC Mnts/        20- 44 |  1-20 | Well-Below Normal
   Foothills
SC Piedmont     10-177 |  1-82 | Below Normal

GA NE Mnts/     19- 31 |  1- 4 | Near-Record Lows
   Foothills
GA Piedmont     13- 26 |  1-18 | Well-Below Normal

---------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
----- 28-DAY AVERAGE USGS STREAMFLOW PERCENTILES BY RIVER SYSTEM ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                     % OF     %ILE    CLASSIFICATION
RIVER BASIN          NORMAL
                     (10/30) (10/30)  (10/30)

Broad (GA)            13- 15 |  1- 2 | Near-Record Lows
Broad (NC/SC)         29- 74 |  5-26 | Well-Below Normal
Catawba               20-136 |  2-78 | Below-Normal (CLT Above Nrml)
Enoree/Tyger          18- 44 |  3-31 | Well-Below Normal
French Broad          10- 45 |  1-21 | Well-Below Normal
Nantahala/Tuckasegee/ 29- 36 |  1-11 | Near-Record Lows
Little Tennessee

Pigeon                25- 33 |  1- 8 | Well-Below Normal
Rocky/Yadkin          48-127 | 19-80 | Slightly Below Normal
Reedy/Saluda          10- 44 |  1-21 | Well-Below Normal
Tallulah/Chattooga    22- 31 |  2- 4 | Well-Below Normal
Toxaway/Keowee/        8- 29 |  4-20 | Well-Below Normal
Savannah

---------------------------------------------------------------------

DEFINITIONS...

*RESERVOIR = Please note that streamflows along regulated rivers
 INFLUENCE   (i.e., rivers with reservoirs) may be influenced
             positively and/or negatively by the control of releases
             from those reservoirs.

---------------
..RESERVOIRS...
---------------

Duke Energy, the Tennessee Valley Authority, and the U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers are enacting drought management plans which
permit the reduction in discharges, within regulated allowances, to
conserve as much pool as streamflow and precipitation inputs will
allow.  However, the lack of precipitation, critically low
streamflows, as well as environmental regulations have necessitated
significant declines in pool elevations across the region.  For more
information, please refer to the SUMMARY OF IMPACTS section of this
statement.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------- POOL ELEVATIONS and DROUGHT STAGES ----------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                                          TARGET  10/31
                         ELEV     ELEV    ELEV    ELEV -   MIN   DGT
RESERVOIR                8/21     10/31   10/31   TARGET   ELEV* STGE
                         (ft)     (ft)    (ft)    (ft)     (ft)

CATAWBA SYSTEM

James           (BRWN7)  98.20 |  94.43 |  96.1 | -1.67 |  93.1 | 0
Rhodhiss        (RHON7)  96.81 |  97.30 |  97.0 | +0.30 |  94.0 | 0
Hickory         (OXFN7)  97.67 |  97.26 |  97.0 | +0.26 |  94.0 | 0
Lookout Shoals  (LKSN7)  96.97 |  96.98 |  97.0 | -0.02 |  94.0 | 0
Norman          (CWAN7)  97.50 |  94.89 |  97.0 | -2.11 |  94.0 | 0
Mountain Island (MOUN7)  97.17 |  96.62 |  96.0 | +0.62 |  94.3 | 0
Wylie           (FOMS1)  96.95 |  95.10 |  97.0 | -1.90 |  94.0 | 0
Fishing Creek   (FCDS1)  97.66 |  98.22 |  98.0 | +0.22 |  95.0 | 0
Great Falls     (GTFS1)  98.12 |  97.81 |  97.5 | +0.31 |  95.0 | 0
Cedar Creek     (CDCS1)  97.31 |  97.91 |  97.5 | +0.41 |  96.0 | 0

LITTLE TENNESSEE SYSTEM

Tanasee Creek (EFKN7)    91.78 |  85.39 |  88.0 | -2.61 |  86.0 | 2
Bear Creek    (BCDN7)    93.79 |  94.35 |  95.0 | -0.65 |  88.0 | 2
Cedar Cliff   (ICCN7)    99.00 |  98.17 |  97.5 | -0.67 |  96.0 | 0
Glenville     (THPN7)    94.60 |  91.25 |  90.0 | +1.25 |  88.0 | 2
Wolf Creek    (WCDN7)    91.94 |  84.92 |  88.0 | -3.08 |  86.0 | 2
Nantahala     (NANN7)    88.78 |  77.47 |  83.0 | -5.53 |  80.0 | 1
Queens Creek  (QCDN7)    92.53 |  90.90 |  92.8 | -1.90 |  85.9 | ND
Fontana       (FONN7)   1691.0 |1659.52 |1666.0 | -6.80 |1659.0 | NA

SAVANNAH SYSTEM

Jocassee      (JCSS1)    96.92 |  90.13 |    NA |    NA |  77.0 | 2
Keowee        (KEOS1)    97.74 |  96.22 |    NA |    NA |  95.0 | 2
Hartwell      (HRTG1)   655.90 | 651.91 | 659.0 | -7.09 | 625.0 | 2
Russell       (RBDS1)   474.18 | 475.05 | 475.0 | +0.05 | 470.0 | 2

PROJECTIONS...

LAKE HARTWELL...projected to fall to 10 feet below (650 ft) full pool
                (660 ft) by the end of the year and then level out.
                This is a significant deficit of storage for early
                winter and will require a well-above normal rainfall
                to overcome.

FONTANA LAKE... projected to remain near the median guide curve
                through the winter if normal rainfall occurs.

DEFINITIONS...

MINIMUM   = The minimal elevation is the lowest elevation that the
ELEVATION   pool can be while meeting local community and river
            system needs.  Drought release reduction plans may begin
            above the minimal elevation. For Lake Hartwell and
            Richard B. Russell Lake, the minimal elevation marks the
            bottom of conservation storage or the top of the inactive
            pool.  Drought release reduction plans begin at or above
            the minimal elevation, at 656.0 feet at Lake Hartwell and
            at 470.0 feet for Richard B. Russell Lake.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

=====================================================================
..DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
=====================================================================

The overall weather pattern is forecasted to be unfavorable for
significant drought improvement across the region for the next
30-60 days as temperatures are expected to remain above-normal and
precipitation below-normal.  However, there is an increasing chance
for near-normal precipitation during the period from November 12th
to November 25th which may help to slow or temporarily improve
drought conditions across the area.

As deciduous trees and other plants lose their leaves and go into
winter dormancy, the demand on the water system will decrease as
evapotranspiration rates or the rate of moisture loss from the soil
to vegetation and the atmosphere decrease.  The cooler temperatures
(when compared to summer heat) will also slow the loss of soil
moisture, streamflow, and groundwater due to evaporation and
evapotranspiration.  Nevertheless, drought conditions will continue
to worsen if precipitation does not increase to feed streams and
reservoirs which are required by law to release minimum flows to
maintain critical environmental and water supply thresholds.

The forecast below attempts to account for increasing chances
of near-normal to slightly above-normal precipitation later in
November, such that in the short-term, conditions will worsen, then
hold steady or slightly improve by November 29th.  If the
precipitation does not materialize, then the likelihood of the
deterioration described below increases.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------- DROUGHT FORECAST --------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Region         Current Drought          Drought Forecast
                                        (conditions on Nov. 29)

NC Piedmont  | NO-D2 (Abnormally Dry) | Possible 1 Cat Deterioration
NC Foothills | D1-D3 (Extreme)        | Likely D2 Expansion, D3 Poss.
NC Nrn Mnts  | D1    (Moderate)       | Possible 1 Cat Deter.
NC Cntl Mnts | D1-D3 (Severe)         | Likely D2 and D3 Expansion
NC Srn Mnts  | D2-D3 (Severe)         | Possible D3 Expansion

SC Mnts/     | D3    (Extreme)        | Persisting D3 Conditions
   Foothills
SC Piedmont  | D0-D3 (Severe)         | Possible D1 and D2 Expansion

GA NE Mnts/  | D3    (Extreme)        | Possible D4 Intro.
   Foothills
GA Piedmont  | D3    (Extreme)        | Slightly Possible D4 Intro.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

=====================================================================
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
=====================================================================
---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------ PRODUCT SCHEDULE ---------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

PRODUCT                                    | NUMBER  | ISSUED BY

Intermediate Drought Information Statement | #2016I1 | Dec 15
Primary Drought Information Statement      | #2017P1 | Jan 15
Intermediate Drought Information Statement | #2017I1 | Feb 15

DEFINITIONS:
Intermediate = Update to Synopsis, tabular data, and Outlook only
Primary      = Complete Update to all sections

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==================
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
==================

The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) is a multi-agency effort involving
the following organizations:

- National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC)
- U.S. National Weather Service (NWS)
- U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
- U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
- U.S. Forest Service (USFS)
- U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
- State departments of agriculture
- State forest services
- State and regional climatologists
- Private Reservoir Operators

County-specific drought categories are derived from the NDMC`s
USDM.

Agricultural information is derived from the USDA...the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC)...the North Carolina Department of
Agriculture and Consumer Services...and the National Integrated
Drought Information System.

Fire Danger classifications are courtesy of the USFS...the Georgia
Forestry Commission...and the North Carolina Forest Service.

The precipitation analysis is derived from quality-controlled
gridded precipitation estimates produced at the Lower Mississippi
River Forecast Center and the Southeast River Forecast Center.

The precipitation and temperature outlook is derived from guidance
produced at the CPC.

Groundwater levels and records are courtesy of the USGS.

Reservoir information is courtesy of Duke Energy, Georgia Power,
and the USACE.

Additional impact information is gathered from various media
reports as available.

============
RESOURCES...
============

NDMC`s USDM...
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

USDM Classification Definitions...
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/AboutUs/ClassificationScheme.aspx

North Carolina Drought Mitigation Advisory Council...
http://www.ncwater.org/drought/

South Carolina Drought Response Committee...
http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Drought/drought_current_info.php

River Conditions and Forecasts via the NWS...
http://www.weather.gov/ahps/

Streamflow Conditions via the USGS...
http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch

Mid-Term and Long-Term Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
via the CPC...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

==========================
COUNTY TO REGION LEGEND...
==========================

------------
..GEORGIA...
------------

COUNTY         REGION

Elbert         GA Piedmont
Franklin       GA Piedmont
Habersham      GA NE Mountains/Foothills
Hart           GA Piedmont
Rabun          GA NE Mountains/Foothills
Stephens       GA NE Mountains/Foothills

-------------------
..NORTH CAROLINA...
-------------------

COUNTY         REGION (SUBREGION)

Alexander      NC Foothills (Northern)
Avery          NC Northern Mountains
Buncombe       NC Central Mountains
Burke          NC Foothills (Northern)
Cabarrus       NC Piedmont (Southern)
Caldwell       NC Foothills (Northern)
Catawba        NC Foothills (Northern)
Cleveland      NC Piedmont (Southern)
Davie          NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Gaston         NC Piedmont (Southern)
Graham         NC Central Mountains
Haywood        NC Central Mountains
Henderson      NC Southern Mountains
Iredell        NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Jackson North  NC Central Mountains
Jackson South  NC Southern Mountains
Lincoln        NC Piedmont (Southern)
Macon          NC Southern Mountains
Madison        NC Central Mountains
McDowell       NC Foothills (Northern)
Mecklenburg    NC Piedmont (Southern)
Mitchell       NC Northern Mountains
Polk           NC Foothills (Southern)
Rowan          NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Rutherford     NC Foothills (Southern)
Swain          NC Central Mountains
Transylvania   NC Southern Mountains
Union          NC Piedmont (Southern)
Yancey         NC Northern Mountains

-------------------
..SOUTH CAROLINA...
-------------------

COUNTY         REGION (SUBREGION)

Abbeville      SC Piedmont (Lower)
Anderson       SC Piedmont (Northern)
Cherokee       SC Piedmont (Northern)
Chester        SC Piedmont (Eastern)
Greenville     SC Mountains/Foothills
Greenwood      SC Piedmont (Lower)
Laurens        SC Piedmont (Lower)
Oconee         SC Mountains/Foothills
Pickens        SC Mountains/Foothills
Spartanburg    SC Mountains/Foothills
Union          SC Piedmont (Eastern)
York           SC Piedmont (Eastern)

========================
QUESTIONS or COMMENTS...
========================

This product has undergone several revisions and enhancements
during the last drought period.  Additional enhancements
are planned for future drought statements. Your feedback and
recommendations are encouraged in order to ensure this product
meets user needs.  Please direct feedback...recommendations...
questions...and comments to:

National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office - Greenville-Spartanburg
1549 GSP Drive
Greer SC 29651
Phone 864-848-9970
joshua.palmer@noaa.gov

$$

JMP



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