Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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AXHW70 PHFO 162044
DGTHFO
HIC001-003-007-009-172200-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1045 AM HST THU JUL 16 2015

...SEVERE DROUGHT EXPANDS ON KAUAI AND MAUI...


SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS ALONG THE
LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  AS A RESULT...SEVERE
DROUGHT...OR THE D2 CATEGORY ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP...HAS
INCREASED IN SIZE ON THE ISLAND OF MAUI TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF KULA
AND KIHEI IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUSLY COVERED AREA FROM KAUPO TO
AUWAHI.  SOUTHEASTERN KAUAI IS ALSO STARTING TO HAVE D2-LEVEL
IMPACTS NEAR MAHAULEPU... HANAMAULU AND KALEPA RIDGE.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...MODERATE DROUGHT...OR THE D1 CATEGORY...HAS
SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN SIZE TO INCLUDE NAALEHU AND SOUTH POINT ON THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF MAUNA LOA AS WELL AS THE LOWER PUUKAPU REGION ON
THE MAUNA KEA SIDE OF WAIMEA.

EXISTING D1 AREAS OVER THE LEEWARD WAIANAE RANGE OF OAHU AND LOWER
WEST MAUI FROM UKUMEHAME TO LAHAINA HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

KAUAI.
VEGETATION AND PASTURE CONDITIONS IN THE HANAPEPE AREA REMAIN VERY
POOR. IRRIGATED COFFEE ORCHARDS IN THE SAME AREA ARE GETTING ONLY 30
TO 50 PERCENT OF THE REQUIRED AMOUNT OF WATER DUE TO LOW RESERVOIR
SUPPLIES.  A RANCHER OPERATING NEAR KALEPA RIDGE NORTH OF LIHUE HAD
TO DESTOCK HIS PASTURES AND REPORTED THAT SPRINGS WERE DRYING UP.
NEAR HANAMAULU...RANCHERS WILL SOON HAVE TO PULL CATTLE OUT OF THEIR
PASTURES IF CONDITIONS DO NOT IMPROVE.

OAHU.
ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE WAIANAE RANGE...PASTURES ARE IN A DEGRADED
STATE AND BRUSH FIRES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OCCASIONALLY.

MOLOKAI AND LANAI.
THERE ARE NO DROUGHT IMPACTS TO REPORT.

MAUI.
A RANCHER IN THE KULA AREA INDICATED THAT HE HAS ONLY ABOUT TWO
MONTHS OF FORAGE REMAINING.  KAUPO AREA RANCHERS HAVE HAD TO WEAN
CALVES EARLIER THAN NORMAL AT LOWER WEIGHTS.  PASTURES HAVE BEEN
DESTOCKED DUE TO INADEQUATE FORAGE. VEGETATION CONDITIONS IN
LEEWARD WEST MAUI HAVE ALSO BEEN VERY DRY WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF
BRUSH FIRES.

BIG ISLAND.
RANCHERS OPERATING NEAR NAALEHU AND SOUTH POINT HAVE BEEN
SUPPLEMENTING FEED DUE TO DEGRADED PASTURE CONDITIONS.  PASTURES TO
THE WEST AND SOUTH OF WAIMEA HAVE BEEN DETERIORATING DUE TO LOW
RAINFALL.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
ACCORDING TO THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...EL NINO CONDITIONS
ARE PRESENT IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN.  IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT EL NINO
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 2015-2016 WINTER SEASON AND INTO THE SPRING
OF 2016.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OUTLOOK ISSUED ON JULY 16 BY THE NOAA
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED THAT PROBABILITIES FAVOR ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL...THEN BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DURING THE WINTER.  ABOVE MEDIAN SUMMER
RAINFALL IS MAINLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES IN
PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS LEAVING LEEWARD AREAS GENERALLY DRY. THE
NEXT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER ON AUGUST 20.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
DATA FROM THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY INDICATED THAT MONITORED
STREAMS ON KAUAI HAD 30-DAY FLOW LEVELS IN THE NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL RANGE WHILE FLOW LEVELS IN STREAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
STATE WERE IN THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGE.  FLOW LEVELS FROM
WINDWARD STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE WITH NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL FLOW WITHIN LEEWARD STREAMS.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON AUGUST 6
2015 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
HAWAII DROUGHT MONITOR...HAWAII.GOV/DLNR/DROUGHT/INDEX.HTML
USGS HAWAII - RECENT CONDITIONS...HI.WATER.USGS.GOV/RECENT/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER LONG-LEAD HAWAII OUTLOOK...
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/FXHW40.HTML
HAWAII DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER...HAWAII.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
INFORMATION FOR THIS PRODUCT WAS COMPILED FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES
INCLUDING THE COUNTY BOARDS AND DEPARTMENTS OF WATER SUPPLY...U.S.
AND STATE OF HAWAII AGRICULTURE AGENCIES...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY AND THE MEDIA.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

KEVIN KODAMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2525 CORREA RD. SUITE 250
HONOLULU HI  96822
PHONE...808-973-5276
KEVIN.KODAMA@NOAA.GOV

$$




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