Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
335 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018


...Winter and Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

...Expect below normal to near normal potential of river flooding
across the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area...

This Winter and Spring Flood Potential Outlook is for rivers and
tributaries of the Central Savannah River Basin...East-Central
Georgia and Central South Carolina including the following:

Savannah River Basin Downstream of R. B. Russell Reservoir and
upstream from Burtons Ferry...

The Edisto River basin upstream of the Bamberg and Orangeburg
County line in South Carolina...

The Santee River Basin upstream of the Clarendon and Berkeley
County line and downstream on the Saluda and Broad Rivers at the
Greenwood/Saluda...Laurens/Newberry...Union/Fairfield and the
Chester/Fairfield County lines in South Carolina...

The Wateree River System downstream of Great Falls South
Carolina...

The Great Pee Dee River Basin in Chesterfield County in South
Carolina...


           ...Summary of Recent Weather Events...

Over the last 14 days ending February 15 2018...the hydrologic
area received rainfall amounts that ranged from 1 to 3 inches that
fell across the Central Savannah River Area and Midlands. This
ranges from 50 percent of normal up to 150 percent of normal. The
highest rainfall amounts fell across the Upstate, Piedmont and
western Midlands. The lowest rainfall amounts fell across the
eastern Midlands. Rainfall amounts were closer to normal across
the central Midlands and CSRA.


           ...Soul Moisture-Drought Conditions...

Here is a breakdown of the current conditions across the Midlands
and CSRA.

The recent rainfall has improved drought conditions across the
Midlands and CSRA. The Upstate and Piedmont do not indicate any
drought at this time. The only portion of South Carolina and
east-central Georgia that remain in drought are along and south of
I-20. This includes the central and easter Midlands and much of
the CSRA. Rainfall amounts from one quarter inch up to one half
inch are forecasted over the next 7 days.


Go to www.drought.gov for more details.


           ...River and Stream Flow...

Looking at the 14 day stream flow average compared to historical
streamflows for February 15 2018 show most of the stream basins
across the Midlands and CSRA have returned to near normal flow
conditions. The only basins indicating below normal flows are
along the Saluda and Savannah River Basins. The Broad River Basin
actually indicates above normal flows at this time.

Broad River Basin:  Above Normal flows
Catawba/Wateree River Basin: Near Normal flows
Saluda River Basin: Below Normal/Near Normal flows
Santee River Basin: Near Normal flows
Edisto River Basin: Near Normal flows
Savannah River Basin: Below Normal/Near Normal flows


           ...Reservoir Levels...

Except for Lake Wateree, all of the area reservoirs
increased their pool heights by nearly 2 feet over the past
2 weeks. The height at Lake Wateree slipped slightly by just
one half of a foot. Areas along the Savannah River Basin are
below normal for their Winter target pool/guide curves. The
Saluda...Santee and Wateree Basins remain near or just above
their Winter target pool/guide curves.

Lake Thurmond (FP 330.0 Feet)...
Feb 01 2018    322.66 Feet
Feb 15 2018    325.43 Feet
Difference Plus  2.77 Feet

Lake Greenwood (FP 440.0 Feet)...
Feb 01 2018    434.75 Feet
Feb 15 2018    437.26 Feet
Difference Plus  2.51 Feet

Lake Murray (FP 360.0 Feet)...
Feb 01 2018    354.81 Feet
Feb 15 2018    356.77 Feet
Difference Plus  1.96 Feet

Lake Marion (FP 76.8 Feet)...
Feb 01 2018     74.02 Feet
Feb 15 2018     75.13 Feet
Difference Plus  1.11 Feet

Lake Wateree (FP 100.00 Feet)...
Feb 01 2018     97.61 Feet
Feb 15 2018     97.16 Feet
Difference Minus 0.45 Feet

Data for this segment was gathered from the United States
Geological Survey...the United States Army Corps of
Engineers...Duke Energy...South Carolina Electric and
Gas...Greenwood County and Santee Cooper.


      ...Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks...

Near Term...High pressure along the Gulf and eastward into
Florida will dominate the weather through Friday. A cold front
to our west will approach the region Friday night. This system
will move off the coast and stall south of the region by
Saturday. This will provide a chance of rainfall during the
weekend, but amounts are expected to be less than one half
inch.

Please see the Gridded Forecasts for the chance of rain over the
next 7 days at weather.gov/cae.

The 8 to 14 Day Outlook for the period February 23 through March
1 calls for a 70 to 80 percent chance of above normal temperatures
along with a 33 to 40 percent chance of below normal precipitation
through the period.

The 30-Day Outlook for March 2018 indicates equal chances for
below, above and normal temperatures along with a 33 to 40 percent
chance of above normal precipitation for the month.

The 3-Month Outlook for March, April and May calls for a 40 percent
chance of above normal temperatures along with equal chances of
below, above and normal precipitation.

Go to the Climate Prediction Center webpage at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov for more details and the latest outlooks.

                   ...Summary/Outlook...

The Spring Flood Outlook calls now calls for near normal potential
of river flooding across Central South Carolina and East-Central
Georgia. This is due to the increase rainfall over the past 2 to 3
weeks. This has produced some minor river flooding already in early
February.

Historically...the River Flood Season begins in early to mid
January with the number of river flood events increasing through
late Winter into early Spring. The peak occurs in early to mid
March then begins to end in late April for the region.

The medium to long range precipitation guidance indicates little
confidence in the region receiving above normal precipitation
through the Spring season. Stream flows, on average, have
continued to be below normal across much of the region through the
Winter. However, over the past couple of weeks most reservoir pool
heights have risen. The area Reservoirs along the Savannah River are
running below target pool or guide curves. The Santee and Catawba
River Reservoirs are running near or just above normal for their
target pool/guide curves for the middle of February. This combined
with the gradual increase in pool heights for Summer recreation
indicates the the risk of river flooding downstream from these
projects is below normal.

The next schedule Winter/Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for
Thursday March 1 2018.


                ...Questions and Comments...

If you have any questions or comments about this outlook please
contact...

The National Weather Service
2909 Aviation Way
West Columbia SC 29170
Phone: 803-822-8135
Internet Address: caewx@noaa.gov
Senior Service Hydrologist:
Leonard.Vaughan@noaa.gov


$$

Vaughan



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