Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FGUS73 KDTX 161952 CCA
ESFDTX
MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-155-157-161-163-201200-
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK ...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
239 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017


...2017 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service probabilistic outlook
 for the major rivers in the Saginaw River basin and the Clinton
 ...Rouge...Huron and Raisin River basins...

The Detroit/Pontiac office of the National Weather Service has
implemented Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for all
the model locations in the above mentioned basins. AHPS enables
the National Weather Service to provide long range probabilistic
river outlooks. This service is also available on the internet
at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX.

In the table below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more then HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher then normal. When the value of CS is
less then HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

...Southeast Michigan Streams - Probabilities for minor...moderate
and major flooding...

                   Valid period: 02/19/2017 - 05/20/2017

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
North Branch Clinton River
Mt Clemens       15.0   16.0   18.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
Clinton River
Clinton Twp      16.0   17.0   19.0    13   20   <5    6   <5   <5
Mt Clemens       16.0   17.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
River Rouge
Detroit          15.0   18.0   20.0    28   33   <5   <5   <5   <5
Middle River Rouge
Dearborn Hts     10.0   11.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lower River Rouge
Dearborn         10.0   12.0   13.0    45   46   <5    6   <5   <5
Mill Creek
Dexter           12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
Huron River
Hamburg           6.5    7.0    7.5    32   38   19   25   10   15
Ann Arbor        16.0   17.0   18.0    <5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
River Raisin
Tecumseh         13.0   14.0   15.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Adrian           18.0   19.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Blissfield      683.0  685.0  687.0    11   18   <5    7   <5   <5
Dundee          650.0  652.0  653.0     9   16   <5    8   <5    6
Monroe            9.0   10.0   11.0    12   19   <5    5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET



:...Saginaw River Basin streams - Probabilities for minor...moderate
and major flooding...


                      Valid period: 02/19/2017 - 05/20/2017

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Pine River
Midland          12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Tittabawassee River
Midland          24.0   25.0   28.0     7   15    5   13   <5   <5
Shiawassee River
Owosso            7.0    9.0   10.0    20   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
Kearsley Creek
Davison          10.0   11.0   12.0    12   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
Flint River
Flint            13.0   15.0   17.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cass River
Cass City        14.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Vassar           14.0   15.0   18.0    <5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
Frankenmuth      17.0   20.0   25.0    10   23   <5    8   <5   <5
Saginaw River
Saginaw          17.0   19.0   24.0    14   22   <5   13   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET



...PAST PRECIPITATION...
Precipitation across the area this past fall and winter so far has
been below average to average. Snow fall has been below average.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
Most rivers base flows are average to above due to recent warm ups
and rain events.  Most rivers are open to partial ice cover.

...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTH...
Soil moisture is higher then average. Frost depths are generally
less then a foot.

...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...
Snow cover across southeast Michigan ranges from mostly zero to
maybe an inch in isolated locations.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
The outlook for the next 14 days calls for much warmer and wetter
then average.

...FLOOD SUMMARY OUTLOOK...
Since there is no snow pack and very shallow ground frost, ground
water has been flowing more then normal into rivers keeping base
flows higher.  Though base flows are higher, the ground has a higher
absorption capabilities for this time of year. This has produced
lower chances then average for Spring flooding.  Heavy rain fall
could still produce river flooding this Spring but not as easily as
in average Springs.
.

The next hydrologic outlook will be issued March 2.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX



$$

DRC



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