Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

...ABOVE NORMAL RISK FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SPRING 2016...

HISTORICALLY...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN LATE DECEMBER...WITH
THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH
A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID-MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THIS FLOOD SEASON HAS BEGUN EARLY AND HAS SET THE STAGE
FOR MORE FLOODING IN THE COMING MONTHS.

...14-DAY OBSERVED PRECIPITATION...

NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION OVER THE PAST 14 DAYS. PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...AND THE FRENCH
BROAD RIVER VALLEY HAVE RECEIVED 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 14 DAYS.

...CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...

THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE USGS AS OF JANUARY 29
ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.  NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME
AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO EARLY FEBRUARY.

...RESERVOIRS...

MOST RESERVOIRS ARE ABOVE THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...SNOWPACK...

A SNOWPACK GENERALLY 1 TO 10 INCHES DEEP IS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FOLLOWING THE
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ON JANUARY 22.  THIS SNOWPACK IS MELTING AT
A GRADUAL RATE WHICH WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF ISSUES FROM
OCCURRING.

...8-10 DAY FUTURE PRECIPITATION...

THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS INDICATE A NEAR NORMAL
WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF WET AND DRY WEATHER. THE LATEST CPC
8- TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AS WE
APPROACH EARLY FEBRUARY.

...14-DAY FUTURE PRECIPITATION...

ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THIS
IS BASED ON CPC CLIMATE MODEL FORECASTS AND THE CURRENT EL NINO
ADVISORY. SEE THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB
SITE...WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...OUTLOOK...

GIVEN CURRENT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LONG-RANGE
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AND THE RELATIVE RISK IS ABOVE NORMAL.

...NEXT OUTLOOK...

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY...FEBRUARY 4 2016.

$$

JMP



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