Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
920 AM CST THU MAR 2 2017

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...

This outlook applies to the Wichita Hydrologic Service area (HSA)
which includes the Arkansas River...Smoky Hill River...Verdigris
River and Neosho River and their tributaries in central...south
central and southeast Kansas.

...There is a normal potential of flooding along most streams and
rivers this spring...

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give
advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil
moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook
is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Wichita Service
Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation or
longer periods of excessive precipitation.

This outlook is valid from March 2nd through March 16th, 2017.

The outlook is based on current climatological conditions. However,
heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding even when the
snowmelt flood potential is low. Convection, not snowmelt is often
the primary driver of spring flooding in the service area.

Scattered light snow accumulations of 1 inch or less fell across
parts of central KS this past Sunday but quickly melted-off by that
afternoon. There has been no big snowfall event this season. Snowfall
this winter has been below normal. There is no current snowpack
across the entire service area. Over the winter months, frozen soils
have been minimal in depth and occurrence. Soils are not frozen at
this time.

Precipitation over the last 3 months has been 50 to 90 percent of its
normal value over southeast KS. While central KS has received a
variance between 25 to 110 percent of its normal precipitation.
However in contrast, south central KS has seen slightly above normal
precipitation. This area has received near normal moisture to 200
percent of its normal values.

During the last month, central and southeast KS received less than 50
percent of its normal precipitation. While south central KS saw
between 50 to 130 percent of its normal precipitation.

Departure from normal precipitation over the last two weeks has run
from 0.30 to 1.20 inches below normal in southeast KS and 0.30 to
0.50 inches below normal in central KS. Near normal precipitation to
1 inch above normal amounts were seen over south central KS. In other
words, this equates to both central and southeast KS receiving less
than 25 percent of their normal precipitation and south central KS
receiving between 100 to 200 percent of its normal values.

Above normal temperatures have been noted across the region over the
past two weeks especially during February 16th-22nd when temperatures
were 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

Soil moisture February anomaly data shows levels are near normal over
most of the service area with slight dryness in extreme southeast KS.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor issued March 2nd 2017...
(http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) shows the drought conditions
becoming Moderately Dry (D1) in parts of southeast KS with the rest
of the southeast service area maintaining Abnormally Dry (D0)
conditions.  Otherwise, drought is not present across most of the
remainder of the service area except in Russell County. Light
precipitation fell across central and southeast KS this past Sunday
and convective rains of mainly less than a quarter of an inch
scattered across southeast KS and south central KS on Tuesday
evening. Not much moisture was added to the soils to improve any of
the dry conditions.

The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook
valid through end of May 2017, indicates no drought development
likely across eastern KS.

The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow conditions map
shows near normal flows across the entire service area.
(http://waterwatch.usgs.gov).

The area reservoirs are slightly in their flood control pools. The
U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicates that the Corps reservoirs
currently have an average of 99 percent of their flood-control
storage available at this time.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook for the 3 month period
March-April-May, calls for equal chances of normal, above normal, and
below normal precipitation. Stronger probabilities of above normal
temperatures are favored across the area during this period.

The 8-14 day CPC Outlook (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) indicates
over a 70 percent probability of above normal temperatures. Slightly
below normal precipitation is favored over the western sections of
the service area with the remainder of the area calling for equal
chances of normal, above normal, and below normal precipitation.

A warming trend is expected into the weekend with relatively dry
conditions. High temperatures are expected to be 10 to 20 degrees
above normal for the start of the weekend into next week.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/2/2017 - 05/24/2017

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Arkansas River
Great Bend          12.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           8.0   13.0   19.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Haven               10.0   11.0   12.0 :  12    7    8    5   <5   <5
Derby               12.0   15.0   16.2 :  16    9    7   <5   <5   <5
Mulvane             16.5   19.0   21.0 :  19   10   15   <5   12   <5
Oxford              17.0   20.0   23.0 :  29   15   13    7   <5   <5
Arkansas City       11.0   17.0   21.0 :  42   35   11    8   <5   <5
:Walnut Creek
Albert              24.0   25.0   25.7 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cow Creek
Lyons               18.0   22.0   24.7 :   6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           9.5   10.5   12.5 :  40   23   28    8   <5   <5
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills          22.0   25.0   27.0 :  18   17    9   10   <5   <5
Halstead            25.0   27.0   29.0 :  13   10    7    5   <5   <5
Sedgwick            22.0   25.0   26.0 :  15   12   10    5    8   <5
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th    18.0   22.0   24.0 :  19   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock              8.0   10.0   12.0 :  38   18   17   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah River
Peck                17.0   21.0   26.0 :  20    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Belle Plaine        23.0   24.5   26.0 :  16    7    9   <5    5   <5
:Whitewater River
Towanda             22.0   25.0   28.0 :  24   13   13    8   <5   <5
Augusta             21.0   25.0   30.0 :  11    9    7    5   <5   <5
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado           21.0   22.0   24.0 :  <5    7   <5    6   <5   <5
:Walnut River
El Dorado           19.0   23.0   25.6 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Augusta             23.0   28.0   36.0 :  10    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
Winfield            18.0   22.0   29.0 :  27   23   18   13    6    5
Arkansas City       18.0   22.0   28.0 :  17    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Chikaskia River
Corbin              10.0   19.0   28.0 :  48   37   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Fall River
Fredonia            17.0   27.0   36.0 :  18   22    5    5   <5   <5
:Verdigris River
Altoona             19.0   21.0   26.0 :  16   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
Independence        30.0   47.6   53.0 :  23   29   <5   <5   <5   <5
Coffeyville         18.0   23.0   26.5 :  13   21   <5    5   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
Florence            22.0   27.0   32.0 :  31   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cottonwood Falls     9.0   11.0   18.0 :  28   24   18   16   <5   <5
Plymouth            32.0   34.0   37.0 :  30   26   20   11   <5   <5
:Neosho River
Iola                15.0   21.0   27.0 :  20   24   <5    7   <5   <5
Chanute             23.0   28.5   35.0 :  29   35   13   17   <5   <5
Erie                29.0   32.0   36.0 :  33   38   23   29   13   16
Parsons             21.0   23.0   32.0 :  45   51   34   41   <5   <5
Oswego              17.0   20.0   25.0 :  45   47   32   35    7    9
:Salt Creek
Barnard             21.0   23.3   24.9 :  14   19   13   17   <5   <5
:Saline River
Lincoln             30.0   36.0   38.5 :  31   33    8    8   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg           21.0   29.0   33.9 :  28   33   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mentor              20.0   24.0   28.0 :  18   28   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mulberry Creek
Salina              24.0   26.0   27.4 :  33   39   22   26   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria         27.0   30.0   33.1 :  32   40   19   28   10   10
Russell             18.0   20.0   38.0 :  <5    7   <5    6   <5   <5
Ellsworth           20.0   24.0   27.0 :   6   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Saline River
Russell             18.0   20.0   23.0 :   8    9   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/2/2017 - 05/24/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Arkansas River
Great Bend            1.3    1.3    1.5    2.7    4.6    6.2    8.5
Hutchinson            1.2    1.3    1.7    2.6    3.8    4.8    7.9
Haven                 2.3    2.6    3.6    5.6    7.1   10.6   11.7
Derby                 2.0    3.2    3.8    5.6    9.1   14.4   15.5
Mulvane               7.0    8.0    8.6   10.5   13.6   22.1   23.7
Oxford                8.4    9.2   11.3   13.6   17.7   20.8   21.5
Arkansas City         4.5    5.3    7.5    9.7   14.2   17.3   19.0
:Walnut Creek
Albert                2.9    3.0    3.1    6.8   10.5   14.7   17.8
:Cow Creek
Lyons                 4.5    4.5    8.6   12.9   15.4   17.3   18.5
Hutchinson            1.9    2.3    5.0    8.8   10.8   11.2   12.0
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills            0.4    1.1    6.2   13.5   19.9   24.8   26.0
Halstead              6.1    6.6   10.0   16.1   21.4   26.2   27.7
Sedgwick              3.5    4.5    7.4   11.9   16.9   25.1   28.8
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th      7.6    7.6   12.4   13.9   17.2   19.5   19.9
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock               3.9    4.3    5.1    6.7    9.4   10.6   11.2
:Ninnescah River
Peck                  3.8    4.3    6.6   10.5   16.4   18.5   20.4
Belle Plaine         10.9   11.4   13.5   16.3   21.3   24.3   26.3
:Whitewater River
Towanda               2.7    6.0    9.0   13.1   21.9   25.8   27.0
Augusta               5.4    6.6    8.0   10.0   15.1   21.8   27.2
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado             6.3    7.3    8.4   10.3   14.6   18.7   21.0
:Walnut River
El Dorado             2.6    2.9    3.7    6.6   10.4   12.9   13.9
Augusta               6.3    6.9    7.8   11.9   18.2   23.1   25.2
Winfield              3.5    5.1    7.4   12.1   18.6   25.9   30.3
Arkansas City         4.8    6.2    8.6   12.0   16.1   19.8   20.7
:Chikaskia River
Corbin                2.6    3.8    6.7    9.8   12.6   15.6   18.6
:Fall River
Fredonia              5.2    6.0    8.1   12.5   15.1   19.2   27.4
:Verdigris River
Altoona               6.2    7.2    9.1   12.7   18.5   19.5   20.1
Independence          8.3   10.0   14.9   20.2   29.3   36.6   37.9
Coffeyville           2.2    2.6    5.0    7.6   14.4   18.9   22.2
:Cottonwood River
Florence              3.9    4.8    6.8   14.2   24.7   26.3   26.6
Cottonwood Falls      1.6    2.5    3.6    6.0    9.5   13.0   14.2
Plymouth              5.2    8.8   12.4   25.0   33.8   34.4   34.6
:Neosho River
Iola                  9.0    9.1    9.5   10.8   13.4   18.3   19.7
Chanute              12.8   13.4   15.2   18.6   24.1   30.1   32.8
Erie                 17.1   17.7   20.0   24.5   31.3   37.4   38.9
Parsons              12.6   13.4   15.6   20.1   24.6   27.0   28.6
Oswego               10.1   10.4   11.1   16.0   21.6   24.3   26.0
:Salt Creek
Barnard               4.8    4.8    7.3    9.6   13.8   23.8   24.3
:Saline River
Lincoln              11.4   11.8   16.6   24.6   31.2   34.6   38.3
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg             6.4    6.5    7.9   17.0   22.2   27.0   27.9
Mentor                4.2    4.7    5.4   13.3   18.4   22.3   22.8
:Mulberry Creek
Salina                2.9    3.5    4.9   12.6   25.0   26.6   26.9
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria          13.3   15.8   19.4   22.7   28.8   33.1   33.3
Russell               3.5    3.5    4.0    6.2    9.4   12.1   13.9
Ellsworth             1.4    2.2    3.6    7.2   11.0   15.4   20.7
:Saline River
Russell               6.0    6.0    8.1    9.6   12.8   17.4   19.2

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/2/2017 - 05/24/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Salt Creek
Barnard               4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.7    4.7    4.7
:Saline River
Lincoln              11.2   11.2   11.2   11.2   11.0   10.9   10.9
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg             6.1    6.1    6.1    6.1    6.1    6.1    6.1
Mentor                3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7
:Mulberry Creek
Salina                2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.8
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria           4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9
Russell               3.4    3.4    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
Ellsworth             1.4    1.4    1.2    1.1    0.0    0.0    0.0
:Saline River
Russell               5.9    5.8    5.8    5.7    5.6    5.6    5.5

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Based upon the above information, there is a normal risk of spring
flooding across the Wichita Service Area.

This will be the last Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook this
year.

Visit our home page at
www.weather.gov/wichita for more weather and flood information.

$$

Salazar
























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