Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FGCA72 TJSJ 180459 CCA
ESFSJU
PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053>055-057-059-061-
063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-
095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-
127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-VIC010-
020-030-181800-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1259 AM AST Fri Nov 18 2016

...WET PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE SHEARLINE/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SINCE SOILS ARE
ALREADY SATURATED MOST OF THE RAIN WILL RUN-OFF INTO THE LOCAL
RIVERS, STREAMS AND GUTS WHICH ARE ALREADY RUNNING ABOVE BASE
FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE HIGHER
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCAL RAINFALL TO EXCEED 3 TO 6 INCHES
IN FAVORED AREAS EACH DAY...MAINLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH
NOT OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND NOT CONTINUOUSLY. THEREFORE
EMERGENCY AGENCIES AND OTHERS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED BY SUCH
RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN PLANNING, IN THE EVENT THAT THE POTENTIAL
BECOMES REALIZED.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS WOULD INCLUDE FLOODING OF LOCAL SMALL STREAMS,
TRIBUTARIES AND SOME MAJOR RIVERS WHICH COULD MAKE SOME ROADS IN
THE AREA IMPASSABLE. SUDDEN MUD SLIDES IN THE SATURATED SOILS
COULD ALSO HAPPEN WITHOUT WARNING.

AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO ASCERTAIN AMOUNTS...TIMING OR
LOCATIONS OF THESE IMPACTS. THIS STATEMENT IS TO GIVE AFFECTED
PARTIES AMPLE TIME TO PUT PLANS IN PLACE SHOULD THE INDICATED
CONDITIONS APPEAR.

$$

ER



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