National Weather Service Text Product Display

Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC
Versions: 1 2
000
FGUS62 KALR 021358
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER, ATLANTA, GA
1000 AM EDT THU MAY 2 2013

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK PREDICTS A NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF
RIVER FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF VIRGINIA THROUGH MAY.

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER PEAKING IN EARLY
TO MID MARCH AND ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.  THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS TYPICALLY DECLINES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND STAYS LOW THROUGH THE SUMMER UNTIL THE SECONDARY RIVER
FLOOD SEASON STARTS IN LATE SUMMER DUE TO THE TROPICAL STORM SEASON.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...
THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE USGS AS OF APRIL 30TH
ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

PAST PRECIPITATION...
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON SERFC MULTISENSOR
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
CAROLINAS AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

RESERVOIRS...
MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS AT THIS TIME.  ONE
EXCEPTION IS THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN WHERE LAKE LEVELS REMAIN BELOW
THEIR TARGET POOLS. LAKE HARTWELL IS IN DROUGHT TRIGGER LEVEL 1 WITH
LAKE THURMOND EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO DROUGHT TRIGGER LEVEL 1 BY
MID MAY.

SNOWPACK...
NO OBSERVED OR EXPECTED SNOW PACK.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH EQUAL FORECAST CHANCES FOR BELOW...ABOVE OR
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS SUMMER.

SUMMARY...
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION FORECASTS SUGGEST THE
LATE SPRING RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.  NEAR NORMAL
FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BE CLOSE TO TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HISTORICALLY THE
CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY STARTING IN MID MAY AND REMAINS LOW
THROUGH THE MID SUMMER PERIOD.  LOOKING AT THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
STREAMFLOW PREDICTION FORECASTS AND THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK
MAP...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME WITH A 25 PERCENT OR
BETTER CHANCE AT MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING FOR THE PERIOD MAY
THROUGH JULY.

FOR LONG-RANGE FLOOD RISK AT SPECIFIC FORECAST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT
THE YEAR...SEE THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL LONG RANGE FORECAST MAP THAT IS
BASED OFF THE 90-DAY ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTIONS.

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/LONG_RANGE.PHP

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

DOBUR/HAMILL

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National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
