Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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FGUS62 KALR 230110
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
353 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN
EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.

FOR SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA...WITH NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOWS
CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND AT LEAST NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED...THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND THE
MAGNITUDE OF THOSE RIVER FLOODS IS LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO THE TYPICAL
YEAR...OR CLIMATOLOGICALLY OBSERVED.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LONG TERM
ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS WELL.  THESE ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW
FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND ON THE WATER.WEATHER.GOV WEB SITE UNDER THE
EXPERIMENTAL LONG RANGE RIVER FLOOD RISK TAB.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF JANUARY 21ST ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
LARGER RIVER BASINS IN SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH NEAR NORMAL ESTIMATES ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW PACK...THERE IS NO HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IN THE
REGION AS OF JANUARY 20TH.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
AFTER THE WEEKEND...COLD AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
LIMITED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  LATEST WPC AND
CPC FORECASTS ALSO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
WEEKS.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...AN EL NINO WATCH
CONTINUES AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC MAY REACH WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS.  BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSO CONDITION AS WELL AS THE LATEST CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST...THERE IS EQUAL CHANCES AT BELOW...NEAR
NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL.
SEE THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE FOR MORE DETAILS.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

DOBUR



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