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Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions: 1
000
FGUS63 KMSR 011714
ESGKDF
KANKAKEE..DES PLAINES..FOX RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1208 PM CDT WED MAY 01 2013
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 5/7/2013 - 8/5/2013
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Kankakee River
DAVI3 10.0 12.0 13.0 39 44 <5 9 <5 <5
:Yellow River
PYMI3 13.0 14.0 15.0 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
KNXI3 10.0 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kankakee River
DBRI3 10.0 12.0 13.0 8 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
KTSI3 11.0 13.0 14.0 11 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
SLBI3 9.0 11.0 12.5 50 52 13 14 8 6
MOMI2 5.0 6.5 9.0 24 21 14 11 8 <5
:Iroquois River
RZLI3 12.0 14.0 15.0 27 21 8 6 6 <5
FSMI3 18.0 22.0 24.0 21 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
IRQI2 18.0 24.0 25.0 41 29 9 6 6 <5
:Sugar Creek
MILI2 18.0 22.0 26.0 67 52 16 9 <5 <5
:Iroquois River
CHBI2 16.0 18.0 20.0 14 13 6 <5 <5 <5
:Kankakee River
WLMI2 6.5 8.0 10.0 21 13 6 6 <5 <5
:Des Plaines River
RUSI2 7.0 9.0 10.0 29 19 <5 <5 <5 <5
GUNI2 7.0 9.0 11.0 16 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
LDRI2 12.5 14.0 15.5 11 8 6 <5 <5 <5
DSPI2 5.0 8.0 9.0 13 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
RVRI2 7.0 8.0 9.0 14 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEMI2 10.0 11.0 12.0 24 18 9 6 <5 <5
:West Branch Du Page River
WRNI2 11.5 14.5 17.5 18 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
:East Branch Du Page River
BOLI2 19.5 21.0 23.0 50 42 13 9 <5 <5
:Du Page River
SORI2 6.5 8.0 10.0 18 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Mazon River
COLI2 12.0 14.0 17.0 18 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Fox River
BRGW3 11.0 12.0 14.0 13 6 6 <5 <5 <5
NMSW3 10.0 13.0 14.0 60 39 11 6 9 <5
AFBI2 9.5 10.5 12.0 45 27 27 13 14 11
MNGI2 13.0 14.0 15.0 42 23 8 <5 <5 <5
DAYI2 12.0 14.0 24.0 31 21 14 6 <5 <5
:Vermilion River
PNTI2 14.0 15.0 18.0 16 11 9 8 <5 <5
LNRI2 16.0 21.0 26.0 23 19 8 6 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0430 Z DH12 /DC1304301708/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
: Valid Period: 5/7/2013 - 8/5/2013
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Kankakee River
DAVI3 8.2/ 8.2/ 8.6/ 9.7/ 10.7/ 11.5/ 12.2
:Yellow River
PYMI3 5.8/ 7.1/ 8.0/ 9.5/ 11.0/ 12.9/ 13.6
KNXI3 5.8/ 6.3/ 6.7/ 7.6/ 8.4/ 9.2/ 9.6
:Kankakee River
DBRI3 5.0/ 5.1/ 6.3/ 7.6/ 8.9/ 9.9/ 10.1
KTSI3 6.3/ 6.3/ 7.5/ 8.8/ 10.1/ 11.0/ 11.3
SLBI3 6.7/ 6.8/ 7.7/ 9.0/ 10.3/ 11.7/ 16.1
MOMI2 2.6/ 2.6/ 3.1/ 3.8/ 5.3/ 8.2/ 10.5
:Iroquois River
RZLI3 5.5/ 6.0/ 8.2/ 10.2/ 12.2/ 13.5/ 17.9
FSMI3 9.3/ 10.1/ 12.7/ 15.3/ 17.1/ 19.2/ 23.0
IRQI2 9.2/ 9.4/ 13.4/ 17.1/ 21.2/ 24.3/ 25.1
:Sugar Creek
MILI2 10.2/ 11.4/ 17.0/ 19.4/ 21.1/ 23.6/ 25.1
:Iroquois River
CHBI2 6.9/ 7.1/ 9.3/ 11.7/ 14.0/ 17.5/ 19.0
:Kankakee River
WLMI2 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.7/ 4.9/ 5.9/ 7.6/ 8.9
:Des Plaines River
RUSI2 3.9/ 4.3/ 5.2/ 6.3/ 7.1/ 7.8/ 8.3
GUNI2 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.7/ 4.7/ 6.4/ 7.6/ 8.8
LDRI2 8.2/ 8.3/ 8.8/ 9.9/ 11.2/ 12.7/ 15.8
DSPI2 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.8/ 2.5/ 3.9/ 6.2/ 8.2
RVRI2 3.6/ 4.1/ 4.7/ 5.7/ 6.6/ 7.5/ 7.7
LEMI2 7.3/ 7.5/ 8.1/ 9.1/ 10.1/ 11.1/ 12.0
:West Branch Du Page River
WRNI2 9.1/ 9.6/ 10.1/ 10.6/ 11.2/ 12.2/ 12.7
:East Branch Du Page River
BOLI2 17.2/ 17.8/ 18.7/ 19.6/ 20.3/ 21.2/ 22.2
:Du Page River
SORI2 3.5/ 3.8/ 4.5/ 5.4/ 6.3/ 7.6/ 8.1
:Mazon River
COLI2 4.0/ 5.6/ 6.8/ 8.9/ 11.8/ 13.1/ 13.9
:Fox River
BRGW3 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.8/ 9.7/ 10.6/ 11.7/ 12.8
NMSW3 9.2/ 9.2/ 9.3/ 10.8/ 12.3/ 14.1/ 15.3
AFBI2 8.0/ 8.0/ 8.2/ 9.5/ 10.7/ 13.6/ 15.1
MNGI2 12.3/ 12.3/ 12.6/ 12.9/ 13.5/ 13.9/ 14.3
DAYI2 8.9/ 9.0/ 9.4/ 11.2/ 12.4/ 15.0/ 16.8
:Vermilion River
PNTI2 5.4/ 5.5/ 5.9/ 8.5/ 11.2/ 15.5/ 18.0
LNRI2 9.2/ 9.3/ 9.6/ 12.3/ 15.5/ 20.9/ 25.1
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0430 Z DH12 /DC1304301708/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
: Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
: Valid Period: 5/7/2013 - 8/5/2013
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Kankakee River
DAVI3 7.3/ 7.2/ 6.9/ 6.7/ 6.6/ 6.5/ 6.4
:Yellow River
PYMI3 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.6/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.3
KNXI3 5.4/ 5.3/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.0
:Kankakee River
DBRI3 3.8/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 2.9/ 2.7/ 2.5/ 2.4
KTSI3 5.0/ 4.6/ 4.3/ 4.1/ 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.5
SLBI3 5.4/ 5.0/ 4.7/ 4.4/ 4.2/ 3.9/ 3.8
MOMI2 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.2
:Iroquois River
RZLI3 4.1/ 4.1/ 3.8/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.1/ 3.0
FSMI3 6.5/ 6.2/ 5.8/ 5.3/ 4.9/ 4.5/ 4.4
IRQI2 6.0/ 5.6/ 5.2/ 4.7/ 4.3/ 4.0/ 3.8
:Sugar Creek
MILI2 3.7/ 3.5/ 3.0/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5
:Iroquois River
CHBI2 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.2/ 3.0/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.4
:Kankakee River
WLMI2 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.9
:Des Plaines River
RUSI2 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.2
GUNI2 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.1
DSPI2 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7
LDRI2 6.8/ 6.7/ 6.3/ 6.2/ 6.0/ 5.9/ 5.9
RVRI2 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.8
LEMI2 5.5/ 5.4/ 5.2/ 5.1/ 4.9/ 4.8/ 4.7
:West Branch Du Page River
WRNI2 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.5/ 7.4/ 7.4/ 7.4
:East Branch Du Page River
BOLI2 14.8/ 14.7/ 14.7/ 14.7/ 14.7/ 14.7/ 14.7
:Du Page River
SORI2 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1
:Mazon River
COLI2 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.7/ 0.9/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5
:Fox River
BRGW3 6.9/ 6.8/ 6.7/ 6.5/ 6.3/ 6.2/ 6.1
NMSW3 6.4/ 6.2/ 5.9/ 5.7/ 5.6/ 5.5/ 5.5
AFBI2 5.5/ 5.4/ 5.1/ 4.7/ 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.4
MNGI2 11.3/ 11.3/ 11.2/ 11.1/ 11.0/ 11.0/ 10.9
DAYI2 6.3/ 6.1/ 5.7/ 5.5/ 5.3/ 5.2/ 5.1
:Vermilion River
PNTI2 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.7
LNRI2 4.4/ 4.2/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.3/ 3.0
.END
:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.
$$
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- Page last modified: May 1st, 2013 15:31 UTC