Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1
000
FGUS65 KSTR 072021
ESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

JANUARY 7, 2015

ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - As Of January 1 2015:


Precipitation:

Seasonal October-December precipitation was 80 percent of average in
the Salt-Verde River Basin, 75 percent of average for the Gila Basin and
85 percent for the Little Colorado Basin. December precipitation was
140 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 85 percent in the
Gila River Basin, and 160 percent of average in the Little Colorado Basin.

Streamflow:

December Streamflow was around 75 percent of median in the Salt-Verde,
70 percent in the Gila, and around 130 percent in the Little
Colorado.

January 1st Snow:

January 1st snowpack conditions was near 60 percent of average in the
Salt-Verde River Basin, 35 percent of average in the upper Gila,
and 50 percent of average in the Little Colorado River Basin.

Soil Moisture:

Modeled soil moisture states vary with most areas below average at this
time. However, the January through May runoff volumes are primarily
influenced by the frequency and magnitude of winter rain events.

Climate Conditions:

weak El Nino to neutral climate conditions suggest chances for above
average precipitation in Arizona.

Forecast Summary:

The January-May forecast volumes between 86-92 percent of median in the
Little Colorado Basin, and 81 to 96 percent of median in the Salt-Verde
Basins. In the Gila Basin January-May volumes were between 84 to 98 percent.


SPECIFIC SITE FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

JANUARY 1 LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN FORECASTS:

Developed:                    Jan 1 2015

LOWER Colorado
                                  Period      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
Little Colorado River
  Lyman Lk, abv, St. Johns, nr    Jan-Jun    6.5    92   11.5   1.15    7.1
Zuni River
  Black Rock Res, abv             Jan-May   0.41    87   0.89   0.05   0.47
Chevelon Ck
  Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cyn, blo   Jan-May   12.0    86     26   0.42   13.9
Gila River
  Gila, nr                        Jan-May     48    86    130   18.0     56
  Virden, nr, Blue Ck, blo        Jan-May     64    84    170     25     76
San Francisco River
  Glenwood, nr                    Jan-May     20    95     60    8.0     21
  Clifton                         Jan-May     55    90    165   15.5     61
Gila River
  Solomon, nr, Head Of Safford V  Jan-May    130    95    350     50    137
  San Carlos Res, Coolidge Dam,   Jan-May     93    98    320   19.0     95
Salt River
  Roosevelt, nr                   Jan-May    250    81    555     60    310
Tonto Ck
  Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck, abv      Jan-May     40    95    150    6.5     42
Verde River
  Blo Tangle Ck, abv Horsehoe Da  Jan-May    150    96    350     55    157

MP    Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
MP%   Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
RMAX  Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
RMIN  Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.


****************************************************************************

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:

                      DECEMBER`14      SEASONAL
BASIN                 % Average       % Average

  Upper Gila             85              75
  Salt                  110              80
  Verde                 165              80
  Little Colorado       160              85
  Bill Williams         140              65

***************************************************************************

SNOWPACK SUMMARY:

                     JANUARY 1 2015
BASIN                  % Average

  Upper Gila              35
  San Francisco           55
  Upper Salt              30
  Verde                   85
  Little Colorado         50


***************************************************************************

OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY:

                      DECEMBER`14
BASIN                  % Median

  Gila                   70
  Salt                   85
  Verde                  85
  Little Colorado       130

**************************************************************************

SPECIFIC SITE MONTHLY STREAM FLOW SUMMARY (Dec `14):
Provisional USGS Data

                                   Obs     % Med

  Gila - Gila, nr                  4.0       35
  San Fransisco - Clifton          3.3       20
  Gila - Solomon, nr              12.0       70
  Salt - Roosevelt, nr            16.1       85
  Tonto - Roosevelt, nr           1.21       60
  Verde - Horseshoe Dam, abv      16.0       85

**************************************************************************



CBRFC

NNNN

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.