Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 200900
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SHOWERS TODAY THEN TRENDING WARMER AND MORE HUMID INTO THE
WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DEPART TONIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY RETURN WITH
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-202030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1100. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1400...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.18 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000.
                    SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2300.
                    AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-202030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1100. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1400...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.34 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2000...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0200.
                    AREAS OF FOG AFTER 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.15 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-202030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1100. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1100
                    UNTIL 1700. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400
                    UNTIL 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-202030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1100. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1100
                    UNTIL 1700. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400
                    UNTIL 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-202030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1100. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1700.
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400. NUMEROUS
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.18 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2000...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2300.
                    AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.

$$

SWR





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