Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
000
FNUS53 KAPX 291239
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
839 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...LATE DAY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TODAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO INCREASE
AND WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY IN NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE BEST WETTING POTENTIAL. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER THE FIRE
DANGER THERE. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. STILL LOOKING AT DEEPER
DRIER AIR AND INCREASING WINDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH
MICHIGAN TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE SCATTERED
AND LIMITED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY...STILL WARMING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-292015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
839 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.15 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 27 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1770).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-292015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
839 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT 77-82 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10
                    TO 15 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1020).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.15 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 66-71 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 24 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT...EXCEPT 45-50 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 23 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-292015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
839 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100
                    UNTIL 1700. ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER 1400 UNTIL
                    1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86...EXCEPT 72-77 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 24 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 72-77 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-292015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
839 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100
                    UNTIL 1700. ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER 1400 UNTIL
                    1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86...EXCEPT 74-79 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.14 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 24 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT...EXCEPT 47-52 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2080).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-292015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
839 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10
                    TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 21
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.16 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 24 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2090).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.