Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 261923
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
323 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...Drying out after tonight...

.DISCUSSION...A cold front dropping south through northern Michigan
will bring an end to shower chances overnight and usher in a stretch
of rain-free weather. Expect to see some sunshine on Thursday as
high pressure and drier air begin to gradually build in from the
north into the upcoming weekend. That drier air combined with lots
of sunshine and efficient daytime mixing will lead to some lower
afternoon humidity readings Friday through Sunday, but they look to
remain above critical fire weather thresholds. Winds will generally
be northerly over the next few days, breezy at times during the
afternoon hours.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-270815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
323 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and chance of thunderstorms until 2300,
                    then slight chance of thunderstorms and
                    isolated rain showers until 0200. Patchy fog
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.18 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0700.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (440).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 51-56 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (940).
Mixing Height.......5600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-270815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
323 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2400. scattered showers.
                    slight chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
                    Patchy fog after 0300 until 0400. patchy fog
                    after 0500.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the north
                    after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.07-0.18 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0700.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (390).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent...except 55-60 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1080).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-270815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
323 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Scattered
                    showers and chance of thunderstorms until 0100,
                    then slight chance of thunderstorms until 0200.
                    isolated showers after 0100 until 0300. Patchy
                    fog after 0100.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the north
                    after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.18 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0900.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier...except 1 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (530).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....75-80...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 61-66 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (930).
Mixing Height.......6000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-270815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
323 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered
                    showers and chance of thunderstorms until 0100,
                    then slight chance of thunderstorms until 0200.
                    isolated showers after 0100. Patchy fog after
                    0200.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter...except 4 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    north after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.04-0.17 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0900.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (560).
Mixing Height.......6600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent...except 55-60 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (970).
Mixing Height.......6500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-270815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
323 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered
                    showers and chance of thunderstorms until 0100,
                    then slight chance of thunderstorms until 0200.
                    isolated showers after 0100. Patchy fog after
                    0200.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the north
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.06-0.20 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0900.
Max Temperature.....77-82.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (460).
Mixing Height.......6600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1220).
Mixing Height.......6100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MK


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