Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 160848
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Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
448 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...Elevated Fire Danger this Afternoon...

.DISCUSSION...Elevated fire danger will be in place across interior northern
Michigan this afternoon, particularly for areas along and west of I-
75. Sunny/mostly sunny skies today will combine with east winds
around 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-30 mph to promote efficient mixing
this afternoon. This is especially true for parts of the area along
and west of I-75 where downsloping winds will lead to locally worse
fire weather conditions. Minimum RHs look to dip into the 20-25% for
interior northern Michigan with RHs in the teens possible for
previously mentioned downsloping areas west of I-75 to the Lake
Michigan shoreline. Temperatures will climb into the 60s this
afternoon. Recent lack of rainfall has led to dry fuels, but
widespread rain will return to the area later tonight and Wednesday.
Forecast rainfall will be around 0.5" for many areas across northern
Michigan through Wednesday evening.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-162015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
448 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....61-66...except 47-52 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler...except 4 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........19-24 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier...except 14 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (523).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain after 2400.
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 7 percent drier along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 40 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (161).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.12- 0.35 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....53-58...except 41-46 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler...except 16 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......37 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 20 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 40 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (479).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.31- 0.53 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-162015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
448 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....56-61...except 42-47 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........22-27 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier...except 4 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    east in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (312).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain likely
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....38-43.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 2 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (106).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.20 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....52-57...except 39-44 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........68-73 percent.
   24 HR Trend......48 percent wetter...except 35 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (404).
Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.33- 0.70 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-162015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
448 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....64-69...except 44-49 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........18-23 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier...except 20 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (687).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Rain and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 15 to 20 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 40 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (238).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 24 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.17- 0.36 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....57-62...except 43-48 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........63-68 percent.
   24 HR Trend......41 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 40 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (411).
Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 27 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.30- 0.53 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-162015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
448 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler...except 7 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........17-22 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (711).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain until 2400, then rain and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 44 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (267).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.17- 0.28 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........63-68 percent.
   24 HR Trend......47 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (363).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.33- 0.43 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-162015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
448 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........19-24 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (558).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain after 2400.
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (189).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.15- 0.24 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........67-72 percent.
   24 HR Trend......42 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (340).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.32- 0.64 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

DJC
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