Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 222017
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
417 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN THEY WILL BECOME
WESTERLY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-230830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
417 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT...EXCEPT 89-94 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-230830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
417 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2300 UNTIL 0200...THEN AREAS OF FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32...EXCEPT 36-41 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 3
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER...EXCEPT 6 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT...EXCEPT 86-91 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-230830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
417 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32...EXCEPT 38-43 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT...EXCEPT 93-98 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-230830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
417 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2300 UNTIL 0200...THEN AREAS OF FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-31.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 93-98 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-230830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
417 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2300 UNTIL 0200...THEN AREAS OF FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-30.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

AM





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