Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FNUS73 KABR 272041 AAB
FWSABR

SPOT FORECAST FOR WAR CREEK FIRE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1000 MDT ON JULY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN ABERDEEN SD.

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE TO ADD ISOALTED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE SPOT
FORECAST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST,
HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A STORM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAR CREEK FIRE. WINDS MAY BECOME ERRATIC IF STORMS
NEAR THE LOCATION, AND LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A TREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO OTHER FORECAST FIELDS. STILL ESPECTING
NORTHEAST WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT CLOUD). A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1600...THEN 2.
HAINES INDEX........4 (LOW).
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 17 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 17 TO 24 MPH DECREASING TO 11 TO 16
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (MDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........19  35  51  52  52  62  59  55
WEATHER COV.....                    SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....                    RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........                    SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............79  82  84  86  85  85  84  83
RH..............61  52  48  45  45  46  46  47
20 FT WIND DIR..N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..12  17  14  14  13  12  10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.15  25  20  20  15  15  15  15
EYE LVL WND DIR.N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
EYE LVL WND SPD.7   10  8   8   8   7   6   6
EYE LVL WND GST.15  25  20  20  15  15  15  15

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT CLOUD) THEN
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT CLOUD). A
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 0100...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........5 (MODERATE).
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 16 MPH.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........51  44  37  30  30  30  30  34  38  42  43  45
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............82  79  76  73  71  69  68  66  65  64  63  62
RH..............46  50  56  61  66  70  74  77  80  85  86  89
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..14  13  10  9   9   8   8   8   8   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.20  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
EYE LVL WND DIR.NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
EYE LVL WND SPD.8   8   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4
EYE LVL WND GST.20  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT CLOUD). A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2.
HAINES INDEX........4 (LOW).
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 16 MPH.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........46        52        59        61
WEATHER COV.....                    S CHC     S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TSTM COV........                    S CHC     S CHC
TEMP............62        71        76        81
RH..............89        64        54        44
20 FT WIND......E 7G10    E 9G15    E 10G15   E 10G15
EYE LEVEL WIND..E 4G10    E 5G15    E 6G15    E 6G15

$$
FORECASTER...SERR
REQUESTED BY...RYAN CUMBOW
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1600104.0/ABR
.EMAIL RCUMBOW@FS.FED.US,14@NW


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