Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 291650
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Malverne Hill RX...NPS
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1250 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on March 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure moves off the northeast coast tonight and Thursday.
The next low pressure system approaches from the west Thursday night
and crosses the area Friday with the potential for heavy rain and
afternoon thunderstorms.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly sunny by mid afternoon (40-50 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 10 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......3000-3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............80  75  63  50  37
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................68  68  69  68  68
RH..................58  52  48  37  36
20 FT wind dir......N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd......5   5   5   4   4
20 FT wind gust.....10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft).......3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7
Transp wind dir.....N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.....13  12  10  8   10
LVORI...............1   1   1   2   2
ADI.................42  40  35  29  25
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........4   4   4   5   5
VRate kt-ft/1000....34  34  30  26  31

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light...then becoming
                    northeast around 5 mph late.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......1100-2800 ft AGL...decreasing to 300-800 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast 3 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............30  22  15  20  22  28  30  34  38  39  40  42
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................65  63  58  58  54  50  48  47  46  45  44  43
RH..................40  44  53  59  63  68  71  71  71  70  70  70
20 FT wind dir......N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd......3   3   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4
20 FT wind gust.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   10
Mix hgt (kft).......2.8 2.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.....9   8   7   6   3   3   3   3   5   6   8   9
LVORI...............2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.................21  3   4   4   3   4   4   5   6   6   6   8
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   3   3   2   2
VRate kt-ft/1000....22  13  7   4   2   1   1   1   1   1   2   2

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph in the
                    morning...becoming light.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL...increasing to 2300-2600 ft
                    AGL early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............43     46     56     65     75     76
Weather cov.........
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov............
Temp................42     43     48     53     55     57
RH..................73     67     56     48     47     42
20 ft wind..........NE 4   NE 5   NE 4   E 3    E 2    SE 3
20 ft wind gust.....10     10     10     5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)........300    300    1300   2000   2300   2500
Transport wind......NE 10  NE 12  E 9    E 7    E 5    SE 7
LVORI...............3      3      2      2      2      2
ADI.................8      9      16     16     16     16
Chc of pcpn (%).....0      0      0      0      10     10
Haines index........2      2      2      2      2      2
VRate kt-ft/1000....2      3      11     12     10     16

$$
Forecaster...RUSNAK
Requested by...Joe Jarrells
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705477.0/AKQ
.EMAIL joe_jarrells@nps.gov



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