Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 241515
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHERRY CREEK RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1115 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1630 EDT ON JULY 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE BURN SITE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO
OHIO...ALLOWING THE WIND TO BE LIGHT AND STEADY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO RISE A
BIT FOR FRIDAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........75 AT IGNITION...MAX 76.
RH..................35 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5900-7200
                    FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (600).

TIME (EDT)      4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........26  24
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............74  75
RH..............35  33
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5
HAINES INDEX....4   4
SMOKE DISP......400 400

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49.
RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........23  20  19  17  13  12  13  17  19  18  17  16
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............75  73  72  67  63  59  57  55  54  52  51  50
RH..............33  35  38  47  54  62  64  69  69  71  71  71
20 FT WIND DIR..N   NE  E   NE  N   NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   4   4
SMOKE DISP......400 400 300 200 100 0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 77.
RH..................MIN 43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6300-6800 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1100).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........17     19     24     30     34     39
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............50     52     64     73     75     77
RH..............80     89     60     46     45     43
20 FT WIND......W 2    SW 2   SW 3   SW 5   SW 6   SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....4      5      5      5      4      4
SMOKE DISP......0      0      400    800    800    1100

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...DAVID WAWRZYNIAK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140724.CHERR.01/APX






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