Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 261240
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SPOT FORECAST FOR WELCOME LAKE PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
840 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989) 732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.

.DISCUSSION...RAIN WILL END THIS MORNING, WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
SETTLING IN THROUGH THE DAY AND WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE ROAMING THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY STAY AWAY FROM THE BURN SITE
TODAY, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........61 AT IGNITION...MAX 64.
RH..................81 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
                    GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500-7200 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 22 TO
                    28 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /700 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...POOR
                    /2000 KNOT-FT/.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........91  82  63  54  58  67  72
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............61  62  63  63  63  64  63
RH..............81  75  67  62  60  56  56
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   7   8   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  20  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.2 4.3 5.5 6.4 7.0 7.2 7.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.22  24  25  26  26  28  28
HAINES INDEX....3   3   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/10001   1   1   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 46.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900-7000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1300-3000 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 23 TO 31 MPH DECREASING TO 16 TO 21
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (200-2000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........70  67  66  68  73  75  80  89  94  95  98  100
WEATHER COV.....        ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........
TEMP............62  59  57  54  52  50  49  49  49  49  48  48
RH..............58  64  69  74  80  83  86  83  83  83  86  86
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   6
20 FT WIND GUST.20  20  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...7.0 6.6 5.9 5.0 4.0 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.3 1.7 1.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.29  30  31  30  29  26  25  24  23  21  18  16
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/10002   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   0   0

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 59.
RH..................MIN 64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400-6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (100-1400 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........100    100    100    100    100    100
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
TEMP............48     47     51     56     58     59
RH..............86     89     90     78     66     67
20 FT WIND......SW 6   SW 6   SW 7   SW 8   SW 8   SW 8
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     20     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....700    800    3900   5900   5900   5000
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 14  SW 14  SW 21  W 23   SW 21  W 18
HAINES INDEX....3      3      4      4      4      3
VRATE KT-FT/10000      0      1      1      1      1

$$
FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON
REQUESTED BY...MATTHEW MALESIC
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1601033.0/APX



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