Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FNUS75 KBOU 241537
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR CECIL MINE...CLEAR CREEK COUNTY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
930 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0908 MDT ON JULY 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOME WEAK SHOWERS PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE GONE FOR THE TIME BEING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MAIN THREATS ARE LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...THOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. JUST A LOW THREAT
OF STORMS OVERNIGHT...THEN MONDAY LOOKS A BIT WARMER AND DRIER
THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    1400...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST 6-12 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2300...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-51.
MAX HUMIDITY........67-77%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 5 PERCENT IN THE LATE
                    EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2300...THEN 3 UNTIL 0300...THEN 2 UNTIL
                    0200...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL LOWERING TO 2000 FT AGL BY 2400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN FAIR. POOR AFTER 2200.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST
                    5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 6000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 12000 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    VERY GOOD.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CECIL MINE.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

07/24-09 36 15  3 66 37   W  2  2 3 3   W 12  9998   W  8 67618   G
07/24-10 47 20  4 69 33  SW  2  2 3 3   W 12 11545   W  8 78814   G
07/24-11 57 24  5 71 30  SE  2  2 4 3   W 10 13091   W  8 90208   G
07/24-12 68 20  4 71 30   E  3  3 4 3   W  9 14637   W  8101799    V
07/24-13 67 23  5 70 32   E  6  6 4 3   W  8 13425   W  7 73985   G
07/24-14 65 29  8 69 35 ESE  8 13 3 4 WNW  8 12212   W  5 49671  F
07/24-15 64 32 11 67 39 ESE  9 15 3 4 WNW  7 10999 WNW  3 28860 P
07/24-16 62 32 11 67 38 SSE  8 13 3 4 WNW 12 10534 WNW  7 59284  F
07/24-17 61 32 11 66 39  SW  6  6 3 4 WNW 16 10069 WNW 10 86916   G
07/24-18 59 37 15 66 39   W  5  5 3 4 WNW 21  9605 WNW 14111756    V
07/24-19 59 37 15 64 44  SW  5  5 3 4 WNW 20  7703  NW 10 68877   G
07/24-20 59 37 15 61 52  SE  5  5 3 4 WNW 17  5802   N  7 36245 P
07/24-21 59 34 13 58 62   E  6  6 3 4 WNW 16  3900  NE  5 13858 P
07/24-22 59 27  7 56 67 ESE  6  6 3 4 WNW 15  3740 ENE  6 17170 P
07/24-23 59 20  4 54 71 SSE  6  6 3 3   W 13  3580  SE  7 20150 P
07/25-00 39 16  3 53 71   S  6  6 3 3   W 12  3419 SSE  8 22797 P
07/25-01 39 16  3 52 72   S  7  7 3 3   W  9  2902   S  8 21328 P
07/25-02 39 16  3 52 69 SSW  8 14 3 3   W  8  2384   S  9 19152 P
07/25-03 39 14  3 51 69  SW  9 15 3 2   W  7  1866 SSW 10 16268 P
07/25-04 39 10  2 50 68  SW  9 14 3 2   W 10  1703 SSW  9 13018 P
07/25-05 39  6  1 49 67 WSW  7  7 3 1 WNW 13  1540  SW  7  9683 P
07/25-06 28  4  1 50 61 WSW  6  6 3 1 WNW 15  1377  SW  6  6791 P
07/25-07 28  4  1 55 52 WSW  6  6 3 1 WNW 17  4157 WSW  8 30936 P
07/25-08 28  4  1 61 42   W  5  5 4 1 WNW 18  6936   W 12 69037   G
07/25-09 28  4  1 67 33   W  5  5 4 1 WNW 20  9716 WNW 14121094    V
07/25-10 28  4  1 71 26 WNW  5  5 4 1 WNW 18 10944 WNW 14129583    V
07/25-11 28  4  1 73 22  NW  6  6 3 1 WNW 16 12173 WNW 13136540    V
07/25-12 51 24  5 74 19  NW  6  6 3 3 WNW 15 13401 WNW 13141966    V
07/25-13 51 24  5 74 18 NNW  6  6 3 3 WNW 15 13842 WNW 12142587    V
07/25-14 51 24  5 73 19   N  6  6 4 3 WNW 15 14282 WNW 12142951    V
07/25-15 51 24  5 73 20   N  6  6 4 3 WNW 14 14723 WNW 12143057    V
07/25-16 51 24  5 73 22 NNE  6  6 4 3 WNW 13 14363 WNW  9114125    V
07/25-17 51 24  5 73 24   E  6  6 4 3 WNW 10 14003 WNW  7 86468   G
07/25-18 69 25  5 71 28 ESE  6  6 4 4 WNW  8 13644 WNW  5 60084   G
07/25-19 69 25  5 68 34  SE  6  6 4 4 WNW  7 10955   W  6 54934  F
07/25-20 69 25  5 65 42 SSE  6  6 3 4 WNW  7  8266 WSW  7 46499  F
07/25-21 69 25  5 62 50   S  6  6 3 4   W  7  5577 SSW  7 34780 P
07/25-22 69 25  5 59 55   S  7  7 3 4 WNW  7  4376  SW  9 34465 P
07/25-23 69 25  5 58 55  SW  8 13 3 4 WNW  6  3174  SW 12 30208 P
07/26-00 58  6  1 57 55  SW  9 15 3 1 WNW  6  1973  SW 13 22009 P
07/26-01 58  6  1 56 56  SW  9 15 3 1 WNW  7  1758  SW 12 17780 P
07/26-02 58  6  1 56 56 WSW  9 15 4 1 WNW  8  1544 WSW 10 13999 P
07/26-03 58  6  1 55 57 WSW  9 15 4 1 WNW 10  1329 WSW  9 10667 P
07/26-04 58  6  1 54 57 WSW  9 14 4 1 WNW 12  1332   W  9 10295 P
07/26-05 58  6  1 53 56   W  8 14 4 1 WNW 12  1334   W  8  9923 P
07/26-06 59  7  1 54 52   W  8 13 4 1  NW 13  1336   W  8  9549 P
07/26-07 59  7  1 58 46   W  8 13 4 1  NW 12  4112 WNW  9 31056 P
07/26-08 59  7  1 63 39 WNW  7  7 4 1  NW 10  6888 WNW  9 54812  F
07/26-09 59  7  1 68 33 WNW  7  7 4 1 WNW  9  9664 WNW  9 80817   G
07/26-10 59  7  1 70 29  NW  6  6 4 1 WNW  8 11129 WNW  9 85082   G
07/26-11 59  7  1 72 25 NNW  6  6 3 1 WNW  8 12594 WNW  8 87245   G
07/26-12 69 30  9 72 24   N  5  5 3 4 WNW  7 14058 WNW  7 87306   G
07/26-13 69 30  9 72 24 NNE  5  5 3 4  NW  7 13861  NW  7 78022   G
07/26-14 69 30  9 71 26  NE  5  5 3 4  NW  7 13663  NW  6 68967   G
07/26-15 69 30  9 70 28 ENE  5  5 3 4 NNW  7 13466  NW  5 60142   G
07/26-16 69 30  9 69 29   E  5  5 3 4   N  7 12548   N  5 49381  F
07/26-17 69 30  9 69 30   E  3  3 3 4 ENE  6 11629 ENE  3 39595 P
07/26-18 68 21  4 67 33 ESE  3  3 3 3   E  5 10711   E  3 30784 P
07/26-19 68 21  4 65 37  SE  5  5 3 3  NE  3  8362 ESE  5 33819 P
07/26-20 68 21  4 62 43   S  5  5 3 3   CALM  6013   S  6 31355 P
07/26-21 68 21  4 60 48  SW  6  6 3 3   CALM  3663 SSW  7 23391 P
07/26-22 68 21  4 58 51  SW  6  6 3 3 WNW  3  2913 SSW  8 19730 P
07/26-23 68 21  4 56 53 WSW  5  5 3 3 WNW  6  2162 WSW  8 15486 P
07/27-00 35  6  1 55 53 WSW  5  5 3 1  NW  9  1412 WSW  9 10660 P
07/27-01 35  6  1 54 53 WSW  5  5 3 1  NW 12  1392   W  9 10901 P
07/27-02 35  6  1 54 52   W  5  5 3 1 NNW 14  1373   W  9 11131 P
07/27-03 35  6  1 53 52   W  6  6 3 1 NNW 14  1353 WNW  9 11350 P
07/27-04 35  6  1 52 53   W  6  6 3 1 NNW 14  1388 WNW 10 12455 P
07/27-05 35  6  1 51 53   W  7  7 3 1 NNW 13  1422 WNW 12 13601 P
07/27-06 27  5  1 52 50   W  7  7 3 1 NNW 12  1456 WNW 12 14788 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD
REQUESTED BY...KELLY BABEON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160724.CECIL.01/BOU



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