Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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001
FNUS75 KBOU 221156
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR MOUNTAIN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
447 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 MST ON JANUARY 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. AVERAGE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN TODAY, THOUGH
ENHANCED FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. CLOUD COVER,
SOUTHWEST WINDS, DISPERSION AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1300, THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
                    (35-45%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1300 FT AGL UNTIL 0800, THEN BELOW 1000 FT
                    AGL UNTIL 0900, THEN 3100-4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW .

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 24.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL
                    AFTER 2000.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW .

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 8300-9300 FT AGL
                    AFTER 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-30 MPH UNTIL 1100, THEN WEST 30-40
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000, THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1100, THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200,
                    THEN EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW .


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR MOUNTAIN.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

01/22-07 18  0  0 20 58 WSW  8 13 2 1   W 12  1001   W 14 11918 P
01/22-08 16  0  0 20 56 WSW  8 13 2 1   W 10   860   W 14 10050 P
01/22-09 14  0  0 23 50 WSW  8 13 3 1   W 15  1335   W 14 16006 P
01/22-10 11  0  0 28 42 WSW  7  7 3 1 WNW 20  1811 WNW 14 22244 P
01/22-11 19  0  0 33 36 WSW  7  7 4 1  NW 24  2287 WNW 15 28761 P
01/22-12 25  0  0 36 33  SW  6  6 4 1  NW 25  3067   W 12 29210 P
01/22-13 32  0  0 38 31 SSW  5  5 3 1 WNW 28  3846 WSW  7 24904 P
01/22-14 38  0  0 38 32   S  5  5 3 1 WNW 29  4626  SW  3 15841 P
01/22-15 44  0  0 36 36   S  5  5 3 1 WNW 25  4134  SW  7 24882 P
01/22-16 51  1  0 34 40 SSW  5  5 2 1   W 22  3642 SSW 10 31371 P
01/22-17 57  1  0 31 47 SSW  6  6 2 1   W 18  3150 SSW 13 35309 P
01/22-18 54  1  0 29 52 SSW  7  7 2 1   W 18  2404 SSW 12 24190 P
01/22-19 52  1  0 28 55  SW  7  7 2 1   W 20  1657  SW 10 14780 P
01/22-20 49  2  0 27 58  SW  8 13 2 1   W 21   910  SW  9  7078 P
01/22-21 46  2  0 26 60  SW  9 14 2 1 WSW 24   790  SW 10  6782 P
01/22-22 43  1  0 26 60  SW  9 15 2 1  SW 28   669 WSW 10  6291 P
01/22-23 41  1  0 25 63  SW 10 16 2 1  SW 32   549 WSW 12  5605 P
01/23-00 43  2  0 25 64  SW 13 20 2 1  SW 37   571 WSW 13  6288 P
01/23-01 46  2  0 25 66  SW 14 22 3 1 WSW 43   593 WSW 14  7006 P
01/23-02 48  3  1 25 68  SW 15 24 3 1   W 48   616 WSW 15  7759 P
01/23-03 51  3  1 26 66  SW 15 23 3 1   W 43   568 WSW 16  7771 P
01/23-04 53  4  1 26 66  SW 14 21 3 1   W 54   611 WSW 15  7739 P
01/23-05 68  5  1 25 68  SW 10 16 3 1   W 67   653  SW 13  7414 P
01/23-06 68  5  1 24 71  SW 12 18 3 1   W 67   665  SW 14  7983 P
01/23-07 68  5  1 24 74  SW 12 18 2 1 WSW 67   677  SW 15  8567 P
01/23-08 68  5  1 26 71  SW 12 18 2 1 WSW 67   689 SSW 15  9166 P
01/23-09 68  5  1 30 63  SW 12 18 2 1 WSW 68  2554  SW 25 56371  F
01/23-10 68  5  1 35 56  SW 12 18 3 1 WSW 68  3361  SW 29 82374   G
01/23-11 78  6  1 40 48  SW 13 21 3 1 WSW 68  4167 WSW 31112314    V
01/23-12 78  6  1 44 43  SW 13 21 3 1 WSW 63  6120 WSW 35182004     E
01/23-13 78  6  1 46 40  SW 14 22 3 1   W 59  8073 WSW 38262581     E
01/23-14 78  6  1 46 40  SW 14 22 3 1   W 53 10026 WSW 40354044     E
01/23-15 78  6  1 45 40  SW 13 21 3 1   W 49  8804 WSW 36272275     E
01/23-16 78  6  1 43 41  SW 13 21 3 1   W 46  7582   W 31201226     E
01/23-17 75 15  3 40 44  SW 12 18 3 1   W 43  6359   W 25140898    V
01/23-18 75 15  3 37 48  SW  9 15 3 1   W 36  4777   W 21 84403   G
01/23-19 75 15  3 34 52  SW  9 15 3 1   W 28  3195   W 15 42109  F
01/23-20 75 15  3 32 56  SW  8 13 3 1   W 20  1612   W 10 14017 P
01/23-21 75 15  3 30 61  SW  8 13 3 1   W 17  1419   W  9 10968 P
01/23-22 75 15  3 29 63  SW  7  7 3 1   W 16  1225   W  8  8291 P
01/23-23 68 23  5 28 66 WSW  7  7 3 1   W 14  1032   W  7  5988 P
01/24-00 68 23  5 27 66 WSW  6  6 3 1   W 14  1087   W  6  5805 P
01/24-01 68 23  5 26 68 WSW  6  6 3 1   W 14  1142   W  6  5572 P
01/24-02 68 23  5 25 68   W  6  6 3 1   W 14  1196   W  5  5289 P
01/24-03 68 23  5 25 68   W  7  7 3 1 WSW 12  1317 WNW  5  5800 P
01/24-04 68 23  5 24 68   W  7  7 3 1  SW  8  1437   N  5  6306 P
01/24-05 77 45 22 23 71   W  8 13 3 1 SSW  5  1558 NNE  5  6809 P
01/24-06 77 45 22 21 74   W  8 13 3 1   S  8  1515 NNE  7  8435 P
01/24-07 77 45 22 20 74 WNW  9 15 3 1 SSE 10  1472   N  8  9958 P
01/24-08 77 45 22 19 74 WNW  9 15 3 1  SE 13  1429   N  9 11378 P
01/24-09 77 45 22 20 71  NW  9 15 3 1 ESE 10  2066   N 13 22129 P
01/24-10 77 45 22 23 62 NNW  9 15 2 1   E  8  2702   N 15 36383 P
01/24-11 75 37 15 26 55 NNW  9 15 2 1 ENE  6  3338   N 18 54139  F
01/24-12 75 37 15 27 53 NNW  9 15 2 1  NE  9  3490   N 18 56644  F
01/24-13 75 37 15 28 48 NNW  9 15 3 1   N 12  3643   N 18 59152  F
01/24-14 75 37 15 27 50 NNW  9 15 3 1 NNW 15  3795   N 18 61663   G
01/24-15 75 37 15 26 53 NNW 10 16 3 1 NNW 16  3622   N 18 59109  F
01/24-16 75 37 15 24 55 NNW  9 15 3 1 NNW 18  3449   N 18 56531  F
01/24-17 79 14  3 22 62 NNW  9  6 3 1  NW 21  3277   N 18 53929  F
01/24-18 78 14  3 20 67 NNW  9  5 3 1 NNW 21  3106   N 17 47612  F
01/24-19 75 14  3 19 67 NNW  8  3 3 1 NNW 21  2935   N 16 41680  F
01/24-20 74 14  3 18 70 NNW  8  3 3 1 NNW 21  2764   N 15 36134 P
01/24-21 74 14  3 18 70 NNW  8  3   1
01/24-22 73 14  3 17 67 NNW  8  5   1
01/24-23 73 10  1 17 70 NNW  8  5   1
01/25-00 72 10  1 16 70   W  8  5   1
01/25-01 71 10  1 15 70   W  8  3   1
01/25-02 70 10  1 15 67   W  8  3   1
01/25-03 69 10  1 15 70   W  8  3   1
01/25-04 68 10  1 15 70   W  9  5   1
01/25-05 67  3  2 15 67   W  9  5   1

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...KRIEDERMAN
REQUESTED BY...TOM MCCOLLUM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1700508.1/BOU



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