Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FNUS75 KBOU 232316
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for Nighthawk Rx...COUNTY
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
516 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 MDT on October 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Wednesday will feature warm dry air aloft, which will
limit the mixing depth. The morning should have steady west winds
under the inversion, but deep mixing and stronger winds will wait
for the afternoon. If there are stronger downslope winds, the better
mixing could come a couple of hours sooner. It is a matter of how
well the westerly winds push down into the lower foothills. There
is a chance of stronger winds with gusts up to 35 mph in areas
exposed to the west winds after 1500 as the winds aloft increase.

I made the text forecast a bit drier with a bit more wind than the
numbers in the table below. There is a chance for warmer/drier/windier
conditions to develop even a few hours faster.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........24-28%.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest 5-10 mph becoming northeast around 1000,
                    then northwest winds 8-16 mph after 1500.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL rising to 6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 20-30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 1400, then very good.
Haines Index........2 very low.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........40-50%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5-10 mph.
Mixing height.......1300-2300 ft AGL until 2400, then Below 1000 FT
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10-15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 2000, then poor.
Haines Index........3 very low.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........14-18%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8-16 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 1000, then rising to 3000 ft
                    AGL by 1400.
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph until 1200, then 15-20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1200, then fair until 1500, then
                    good.
Haines Index........5 moderate.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Cooler. Partly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows around 40.
Highs around 50. North winds 6-10 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 40s.
Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the lower 50s. West
winds around 5 mph.


Fire Weather Table for Nighthawk Rx.

+++  Data in the following table has been sampled directly from the
     forecast database.  Values in the table may vary slightly from
     information in the narrative forecast.  Feedback welcome.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

10/23-12 32  1  0 47 51 ESE  7  7 2 1         5488 WNW 17 82283   G
10/23-13 31  1  0 50 45   E  7  7 2 1         5825 WNW 16 83544   G
10/23-14 27  0  0 53 40 ENE  7  7 2 1         6163  NW 16 84365   G
10/23-15 28  0  0 39 67 ENE  7  7 2 1         6500  NW 15 84746   G
10/23-16 35  0  0 39 67 ENE  7  7 2 1         4765 NNW 12 45907  F
10/23-17 26  0  0 38 71 ENE  6  6 2 1         3030 NNE  7 18994 P
10/23-18 24  0  0 38 70 ENE  6  6 2 1         1295  NE  3  3759 P
10/23-19 21  0  0 37 69  NE  6  6 2 1         1370 NNE  5  5120 P
10/23-20 19  0  0 36 68 NNW  6  6 2 1         1445   N  6  6606 P
10/23-21 17  0  0 35 67  NW  6  6 2 1         1520 NNW  6  8217 P
10/23-22 16  0  0 34 68  NW  6  6 2 1         1495 NNW  7  8364 P
10/23-23 16  0  0 34 67 WNW  5  5 2 1         1470  NW  7  8501 P
10/24-00 15  0  0 33 69   W  5  5 2 1         1445  NW  7  8629 P
10/24-01 12  0  0 33 68   W  5  5 2 1         1416  NW  8  9238 P
10/24-02 10  0  0 33 67   W  5  5 2 1         1388 WNW  8  9815 P
10/24-03  7  0  0 32 69   W  5  5 2 1         1359 WNW  9 10361 P
10/24-04  8  0  0 32 66   W  5  5 2 1         1301 WNW  9  9943 P
10/24-05  9  0  0 32 64   W  6  6 3 1         1243 WNW  9  9522 P
10/24-06 10  0  0 32 63   W  6  6 3 1         1185 WNW  9  9100 P
10/24-07  9  0  0 34 62   W  5  5 3 1         1322 WNW  9 10345 P
10/24-08  7  0  0 36 62  NW  3  3 3 1         1459 WNW  9 11629 P
10/24-09  6  0  0 40 57  NW  2  2 3 1         1597 WNW  9 12953 P
10/24-10  7  0  0 44 50   N  2  2 3 1         2742  NW 13 28937 P
10/24-11  8  0  0 49 41  NE  3  3 2 1         3888 NNW 15 50513  F
10/24-12  9  1  0 53 35   E  5  5 2 1         5033 NNW 17 77680   G
10/24-13 10  1  0 56 31 ENE  5  5 2 1         5640 NNW 18 92381   G
10/24-14 12  1  0 58 28 ENE  5  5 2 1         6248 NNW 20108230    V
10/24-15 12  1  0 58 28 ENE  5  5 2 1         6855   N 21125227    V
10/24-16 14  1  0 57 29 NNE  5  5 2 1         5480   N 17 83861   G
10/24-17 15  1  0 55 30 NNW  5  5 2 1         4106   N 14 50649  F
10/24-18 15  0  0 53 32  NW  5  5 2 1         2731   N 10 25592 P
10/24-19 13  0  0 50 36 WNW  6  6 2 1         2277 NNW 10 19538 P
10/24-20 10  0  0 47 38   W  7  7 2 1         1823  NW  9 14202 P
10/24-21  8  0  0 45 41   W  8  8 2 1         1369 WNW  8 10049 P
10/24-22  8  0  0 43 45   W  8  8 2 1         1222 WNW  8  9022 P
10/24-23  6  0  0 42 48   W  8 14 3 1         1076 WNW  8  7983 P
10/25-00  6  1  0 41 50   W  8 14 3 1          929 WNW  8  6933 P
10/25-01  5  1  0 40 50   W  8 14 3 1          930 WNW  8  6688 P
10/25-02  4  1  0 40 48   W  8 14 3 1          931 WNW  8  6442 P
10/25-03  3  1  0 39 48   W  8 14 3 1          932   W  8  6196 P
10/25-04  3  1  0 38 48   W  9 14 3 1          937   W  8  6177 P
10/25-05  3  1  0 38 48   W  9 14 3 1          942   W  8  6157 P
10/25-06  3  1  0 39 46   W 10 13 3 1          948   W  7  6137 P
10/25-07  3  1  0 40 46   W 12 14 3 1          945   W  8  6670 P
10/25-08  3  1  0 43 43   W 12 14 3 1          943   W  9  7201 P
10/25-09  3  1  0 47 38   W 12 15 3 1          941   W  9  7729 P
10/25-10  4  1  0 53 32   W 12 14 3 1         1747   W 10 16101 P
10/25-11  5  1  0 58 27   W 10 13 4 1         2553   W 12 26091 P
10/25-12  5  0  0 63 22   W 10 13 4 1         3359 WNW 13 37698 P
10/25-13  5  0  0 66 20   W 10 14 4 1         3630 WNW 14 44710  F
10/25-14  5  0  0 67 19   W 12 15 5 1         3901 WNW 15 52316  F
10/25-15  5  0  0 66 19   W 13 17 5 1         4173 WNW 17 60514   G
10/25-16  7  0  0 65 20   W 14 18 5 1         3296 WNW 18 51234  F
10/25-17 10  0  0 62 22   W 15 21 5 1         2419   W 20 40126  F
10/25-18 11  0  0 59 25   W 15 22 5 1         1542   W 21 27190 P
10/25-19 10  0  0 55 27   W 15 21 5 1         1348   W 21 24787 P
10/25-20  7  0  0 51 32   W 14 20 5 1         1154   W 22 22089 P
10/25-21  6  0  0 49 33   W 14 20 5 1          959   W 23 19096 P
10/25-22  8  0  0 48 34   W 15 21 5 1          954   W 23 19226 P
10/25-23 14  0  0 48 33   W 15 23 5 1          949   W 23 19352 P
10/26-00 16  1  0 48 33   W 16 24 5 1          944   W 24 19477 P
10/26-01 15  1  0 47 34   W 16 23 5 1          929   W 23 18480 P
10/26-02 12  1  0 45 36   W 15 22 5 1          914   W 22 17505 P
10/26-03 11  1  0 43 39   W 14 20 5 1          898   W 21 16553 P
10/26-04 22  1  0 42 43 WNW 13 16 5 1          931 WNW 17 14388 P
10/26-05 34  1  0 41 46  NW 10 14 5 1          964 WNW 14 12027 P
10/26-06 45 30  9 40 50 NNW  9 10 5 1          997 WNW 12  9472 P
10/26-07 53 30  9 40 52   N  8  8 4 1         1325 NNW  9 10114 P
10/26-08 61 30  9 41 51 NNE  7  7 3 1         1653 NNE  7  9532 P
10/26-09 69 30  9 43 49  NE  7  7 2 1         1981 ENE  5  7724 P
10/26-10 72 30  9 44 48  NE  8  8 2 1         2830  NE  6 14603 P
10/26-11 77 30  9 44 49  NE  8  8 2 1         3680 NNE  7 23623 P
10/26-12 79 34 13 44 51 NNE  9 10 2 1         4530   N  9 34785 P
10/26-13 79 34 13 42 54  NE  9  9 2 1         4050 NNE  8 27522 P
10/26-14 79 34 13 39 61  NE  8  8 2 1         3569 NNE  7 21108 P
10/26-15 79 34 13 37 65  NE  7  7 2 1         3089  NE  6 15541 P
10/26-16 76 34 13 35 70  NE  7  7 2 1         2821  NE  6 13897 P
10/26-17 75 34 13 33 76 NNE  7  7 2 1         2553 NNE  6 12308 P
10/26-18 74  7  1 33 75 NNE  7  7 2 1         2285 NNE  6 10777 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD
REQUESTED BY...Paul Ostroy
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717744.0/BOU



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