Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 161555
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Wet Burnt RX...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
955 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MDT on April 16.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Very little change in the weather pattern over the next several days
with temperatures expected to remain within a few degrees of each
other early this week. Minimum relative humidities will slowly creep
up but likely remain below 15 percent. Winds will generally be out
of the west to southwest and on the lighter side through Wednesday
but good mixing heights will allow for continued very good to
excellent vent rates. Fairly significant cool down expected for
the weekend.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West-southwest winds 3 to 8 mph increasing to 8 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......9900 ft AGL increasing to 17500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (161600 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (222500 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........8      12     16     16
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............65     69     74     73
RH..............15     13     9      9
20 ft wind......W 3    W 5    SW 11  SW 12
20 ft wind gust.15     15     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....9900   17500  17500  17500
Transport wind..W 17   SW 18  SW 16  SW 13
Haines index....6      6      6      6
Vent Rate.......EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 3 to 8 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........32     32     32     42     42     42
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............69     60     52     48     45     43
RH..............12     15     20     22     25     27
20 ft wind......SW 11  W 7    W 7    W 5    W 4    W 3
20 ft wind gust.20     20     20     15     10     10
Haines index....6      6      6      6      6      6

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........8 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West-southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL increasing to 15700 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (27300 knot-ft) increasing to good (89200
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........42        42        32        32
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............42        58        71        73
RH..............23        14        10        8
20 FT wind......SW 5      S 3       SW 9      SW 10G15
Mix hgt (ft)....5200      8200      15700     15700
Transport wind..W 8       NW 2      W 10      SW 10
Haines index....6         5         6         6
Vent Rate.......POOR      POOR      EXNT      EXNT

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Caleb Finch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1706879.2/EPZ
.EMAIL nmadc@fs.fed.us



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