Suppression Forecast
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683
FNUS74 KEPZ 271626
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Kerr...Gila National Forest
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
1026 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1100 MDT on May 27.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Hot and dry weather with decreasing winds will continue today
across the burn area. This will keep min RHs in the single digits
and allow for good to excellent vent rates this afternoon.
Sunday into Monday a weakening backdoor cold front accompanied
by a wind shift to the southeast will start to usher in low level
moisture. This will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms
starting Sunday night and continuing into early next week.
By mid-week, the low level moisture begins to move out of the
burn area increasing the risk of dry lightning strikes in the Gila.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....69-74.
Min humidity........9-11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30
                    mph.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL increasing to 12000 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (88100 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (184700 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........2      4      4      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............64     69     71     72
RH..............15     12     11     10
20 ft wind......W 6    W 9    W 13   SW 16
20 ft wind gust.15     20     25     30
Mix hgt (ft)....6600   12000  12000  12000
Transport wind..W 15   W 18   W 18   W 17
Haines index....4      5      6      6
Vent Rate.......GOOD   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........34-39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 mph with gusts to around 30
                    mph in the evening becoming light, then
                    becoming northeast 5 to 9 mph with gusts to
                    around 20 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......11000 ft AGL decreasing to 0 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....North 4 to 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (154400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (0 knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........9      9      9      7      7      7
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............69     62     55     51     48     43
RH..............11     13     18     20     23     29
20 ft wind......SW 17  SW 15  W 10   W 5    N 4    NE 6
20 ft wind gust.30     30     20     10     10     15
Mix hgt (ft)....11000  11000  11000  BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..W 16   W 9    W 3    W 2    NW 2   N 3
Haines index....6      6      6      6      5      4
Vent Rate.......EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (5-15 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....73-77.
Min humidity........11-12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 11 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL increasing to 14200 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (61700 knot-ft) increasing to very good
                    (131200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........12        12        42        42
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............41        56        69        75
RH..............34        26        20        14
20 FT wind......E 11G25   E 11G20   SE 9G15   S 6G10
Mix hgt (ft)....7600      7600      14200     14200
Transport wind..NE 7      E 10      S 9       S 9
Haines index....4         4         5         6
Vent Rate.......GOOD      GOOD      VYGD      VYGD

$$
Forecaster...PAZOS
Requested by...Arnold Lopez
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1710181.0/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us



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