Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 182101
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Katie Fire...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
201 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1400 MST on February 18.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low/trough will be moving across the region over the next 36
hours with precipitation spreading across the area starting early
this evening. Heaviest precip amounts will be west of divide but
some scattered rain or snow showers are possible over the burn area.
Winds shift around to the southwest at 10-20 mph on Sunday but with
cooler temperatures and much higher relative humidities.  Drier
conditions with temps gradually warming through midweek.

&&

...Percentages shown in the sky/weather portion reflect
sky cover amount...

...Mean elevations used to obtain mixing heights as follows:
Zone 110 - Reserve   (5900 ft)
Zone 111 - Deming    (4300 ft)
Zone 112 - Las Cruces(3900 ft)
Zone 113 - Ruidoso   (6900 ft)

Ventilation categories are determined by criteria established
by the state of New Mexico.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 FT)........Variable under 5 mph.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 7 knots.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (48100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........86     86
WEATHER COV.....NONE   NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........NONE   NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0
LAL.............1      1
TEMP............67     63
RH..............30     33
20 FT WIND......S 5    SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....6800   6800
TRANSPORT WIND..S 7    S 7
HAINES INDEX....2      2
VENT RATE.......Fair   Fair

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 FT)........South winds 6 to 11 mph.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL by
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 9 knots.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (60200 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (1600
                    knot-ft) by midnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
SKY (%).........70     70     70     81     81     81
WEATHER COV.....NONE   NONE   NONE   ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     20     20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
TEMP............61     55     50     45     40     38
RH..............41     51     63     67     73     79
20 FT WIND......SE 4   SE 4   SE 4   SE 5   S 6    S 8
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....6000   4000   2200   300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 10  SE 10  SE 10  S 7    S 7    S 7
HAINES INDEX....2      2      3      4      3      2
VENT RATE.......Fair   Fair   Poor   Poor   Poor   Poor

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered snow
                    showers in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms
                    in the late morning and afternoon. Isolated
                    rain showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 FT)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 0800, then 2.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL increasing to 5900 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 19 to 20 knots.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (52000 knot-ft) increasing to very good
                    (117500 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
SKY (%).........72        72        76        76
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD    SCTTRD    ISOLTD    ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR    SNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE      ISOLTD    ISOLTD    ISOLTD
CHC OF PCPN (%).40        40        20        20
LAL.............1         4         3         3
TEMP............36        38        45        48
RH..............82        73        51        42
20 FT WIND......S 10      SW 10G20  SW 10G25  SW 10G25
MIX HGT (FT)....2900      2900      5900      5900
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 18     SW 18     W 20      W 20
HAINES INDEX....2         2         2         3
VENT RATE.......Fair      Fair      Vrygd     Vrygd

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Jennifer Allen
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1702413.0/EPZ
.EMAIL jpallen01@fs.fed.us



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