Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FNUS74 KEPZ 281639
FWSEPZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR SVC DISPATCH TEST...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SANTA TERESA NM/EL PASO TX
1039 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 28.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ROSLYN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FIRE ZONES. FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
WHILE ON FRIDAY, THE ACTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO EAST OF THE
VALLEY. MIN RH`S WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S LOWLANDS AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING AN EXTENDED DRY AND MILD PERIOD TO
THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AND LASTING INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SOME GUSTY WIND IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT PAST
SHOULD KEEP FIRE CONDITIONS BELOW CRITICAL. MIN RH`S WILL FALL TO
THE 20S LOWLANDS AND 30S MOUNTAINS.

&&

...PERCENTAGES SHOWN IN THE SKY/WEATHER PORTION REFLECT
SKY COVER AMOUNT...

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-4500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    5800-7400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO
                    5400 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 10 KNOTS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (25000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (69400
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (MDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........69     69     69     69
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
CHC OF PCPN (%).40     40     40     40
LAL.............4      4      4      4
TEMP............65     71     75     72
RH..............54     45     40     44
20 FT WIND......E 6    E 6    SE 6   SE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....3500   5800   7400   5400
TRANSPORT WIND..E 8    SE 11  SE 11  SE 11
HAINES INDEX....2      2      2      2
VENT RATE.......POOR   GOOD   GOOD   FAIR

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1300 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 7 KNOTS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (19550 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........68     68     68     68     68     68
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
CHC OF PCPN (%).30     30     30     30     30     30
LAL.............4      4      4      4      4      4
TEMP............71     64     60     59     58     57
RH..............46     60     75     80     83     90
20 FT WIND......SE 7   SE 7   SE 7   SE 6   E 6    E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     15     15     10
MIX HGT (FT)....3900   1300   BLW100 200    200    200
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 7   SE 7   SE 7   E 6    E 6    E 6
HAINES INDEX....2      3      3      2      2      2
VENT RATE.......POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2100-4000 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 1800 FT AGL LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 16 KNOTS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (24550 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO FAIR (47750
                    KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........82        82        82        82
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TSTM COV........SCTTRD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD
CHC OF PCPN (%).50        50        50        50
LAL.............5         5         5         5
TEMP............56        63        68        70
RH..............93        72        59        53
20 FT WIND......E 6G10    E 6G10    SE 6G15   SE 6G15
MIX HGT (FT)....400       2100      4000      2400
TRANSPORT WIND..E 13      E 13      E 17      E 17
HAINES INDEX....2         2         2         2
VENT RATE.......POOR      POOR      GOOD      FAIR

$$
FORECASTER...GRZYWACZ
REQUESTED BY...TOM BIRD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1601087.0/EPZ
.EMAIL NMSDC@FS.FED.US



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