Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FNUS74 KEWX 191510
FWSEWX

SPOT FORECAST FOR WEIGHT ROOM PILE...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
910 AM CST THU JAN 19 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON JANUARY 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE CLOUDY AT IGNITION TIME...CLEARING
SKIES OFF TO THE WEST SHOULD REACH THE BURN SITE BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ONCE SKIES CLEAR WITH RELATIVELY CALM WINDS
AT IGNITION TIME INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY NOON.
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO ONLY BE 300-500 FEET AGL AT IGNITION TIME
BEFORE QUICKLY RISING ABOVE 2000 FEET AGL BY NOON AFTER SKIES CLEAR.
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 45-50 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT DRIER AIR
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WILL ALLOW MINIMUM RH VALUES
TO DECREASE NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY WITH STRONGER 10-15 MPH WINDS.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................1 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1000-2800 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 14
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (CST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........37  29  22  18  14  10  7   5
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
TEMP............56  58  61  65  69  74  73  70
RH..............87  80  74  66  58  48  49  53
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   5   6   6   7   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  15  15  10
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
EYE LVL WND SPD.3   3   3   4   4   4   5   4
EYE LVL WND GST.10  10  10  10  10  15  15  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.5 2.8 2.2 1.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
TRANSP WIND SPD.10  13  14  14  14  13  13  12
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........3   4   5   7   6   5   4   5   6   7   13  19
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
TEMP............67  64  62  60  58  56  55  54  53  53  51  50
RH..............59  65  67  72  75  80  80  80  80  77  80  80
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.10
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
EYE LVL WND SPD.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
EYE LVL WND GST.10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10  10  9   9   9   8   8   7   6   5   3   3
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
CWR.................1 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2200-4100 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 12
                    TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........25  30  35  40  39  39  39  36  33  30  33  37
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
TEMP............49  49  51  55  61  67  72  75  77  77  75  72
RH..............83  83  80  72  60  49  41  36  32  31  34  41
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   6   6   7   8   8   8   7   6   5
20 FT WIND GUST.                10  10  15  15  15  10  10
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
EYE LVL WND SPD.4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4   3
EYE LVL WND GST.                10  10  15  15  15  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.6 4.1 3.5 2.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.3   5   7   9   12  14  15  15  15  14  13  12
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...00
REQUESTED BY...KATHRYN SEBES
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1700550.0/EWX
.EMAIL KATHRYN_SEBES@FWS.GOV



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