Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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818
FNUS72 KJAX 202305
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR NORMANDY WILDFIRE...FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
605 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1900 EST ON JANUARY 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (904) 741-4370, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT IN DUVAL COUNTY BUT
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST ON
SUNDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 5-10 MPH WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT AROUND 5 MPH. MAINLY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...
PATCHES OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG LATE
                    IN THE NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG LATE IN THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....18 DECREASING TO 6.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EST)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........70  73  76  79  82  85  88  89  90  91  91
WEATHER COV.....                                PTY ARS ARS
WEATHER TYPE....                                FOG FOG FOG
TSTM COV........
TEMP............73  72  70  70  69  69  68  68  67  67  67
RH..............73  76  84  84  87  87  90  90  93  93  93
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT WIND SPD..7   6   6   5   5   5   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
MIXNG WIND SPD..8   7   6   6   6   6   7   6   6   6   5
DISPERSION IDX..7   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
LVORI...........3   4   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN PATCHY FOG EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1000...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-3500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 23
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 19 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 30 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 40 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 56
                    DECREASING TO 43 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........92  93  91  88  86  83  81  79  80  81  83  85
WEATHER COV.....ARS PTY         SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG         RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........                SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............66  66  67  69  72  75  77  78  79  79  79  77
RH..............97  97  93  90  84  74  69  67  62  62  60  64
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   5   6   6   7   7   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.8 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 2.4
MIXNG WIND DIR..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..5   6   8   12  14  17  18  21  22  23  23  21
DISPERSION IDX..4   6   9   12  19  30  40  51  56  60  59  43
LVORI...........8   7   6   5   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20  30  30

$$
FORECASTER...ELSENHEIMER
REQUESTED BY...SERGEANT MICHAEL QUADE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1700598.0/JAX
.EMAIL MICHAELQUADE@FLHSMV.GOV



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