Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FNUS73 KLMK 222039
FWSLMK

SPOT FORECAST FOR BARREN RIVER LAKE WMA...KDFWR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
439 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE KEY TO THIS UPDATED SPOT FORECAST IS THAT WITHIN A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT AROUND
24% OR 25% AROUND 4PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50% AT AROUND 9AM EDT...LOWERING TO
AROUND 28% OR 29% BY 2PM. NORTH WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 5 AND 7KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND IT FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WEDNESDAY AT IGNITION TIME
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 52 PERCENT...HUMIDITY LOOKS TO DROP TO THE
LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WE MIX DOWN
DRIER AIR ALOFT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
COULD BE LOWER THAN THAT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH DRY AIR MIXES DOWN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 MPH WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM MIXING HEIGHTS
LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 4 KFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAIR SMOKE
DISPERSAL AT IGNITION IMPROVING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 44 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 20
                    MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (4400-46700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    GOOD TO EXCELLENT (56300-75700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........17  100 100 99  98  94  66  61  50  39  34  21
WEATHER COV.....SCT ISO
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW
TEMP............61  62  64  65  68  71  72  74  74  74  72  70
RH..............93  93  90  87  78  63  61  51  48  44  44  45
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   NW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW  N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   4   5   4   6   8   8   9   9   10  8
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  15  15  15  20  20  20  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.8 3.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.0 3.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
TRANSP WIND SPD.7   7   7   8   12  15  15  16  17  18  20  20

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 82 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.

TIME (CDT)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM
SKY (%).........15  14  11  8   5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............67  63  58  53  50  48  46  45  43  42  41  40
RH..............49  54  59  69  74  77  79  79  82  82  79  82
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.6 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.18  15  10  7   7   8   9   9   8   7   6   6

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50 AT IGNITION...MAX 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 25 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH...THEN BECOMING LIGHT IN
                    THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 200-2100 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 2600-3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR /23500 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD
                    /41800 KNOT-FT/.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........0   0   3   6   8   10  12  12  12  12  12  12
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............41  45  50  55  58  62  64  66  68  68  66  65
RH..............76  65  54  45  37  31  28  26  25  27  30  35
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..2   4   5   5   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   4
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 1.2 2.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.0 2.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE  NE  NE  N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.6   9   13  15  15  13  10  9   8   7   7   8

$$
FORECASTER...DENMAN
REQUESTED BY...WAYNE TAMMINGA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140423.BARRE.02/LMK






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