Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FNUS74 KLZK 230246
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Reeves Branch Aerial (Big Piney)...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
846 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on February 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...

Pressure gradients will increase across western and northern
Arkansas tomorrow, leading to breezy south winds through the day.
Afternoon RH should stay in check though as those same south
winds will increase moisture through the next 24 hours, leading
to only around 50 percent for the min RH tomorrow afternoon.

.THURSDAY...

Temperature.........62 at ignition...Max 72.
RH..................70 percent at ignition...Min 51 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 22 mph increasing to 23 to 29 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds south at 8 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 5 to 12 mph.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Dispersion..........31 increasing to 76.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 12 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4300 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6233 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  65  67  69  70  71  70  69
RH..............70  63  56  53  53  51  52  52
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   8   12  12  12  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.5   5   7   7   7   7   7   7
Eye lvl wnd gst.15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.15  17  20  22  23  25  26  29
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 53.
RH..................Max 83 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 30 to 36 mph.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......South winds 7 to 12 mph.
LVORI...............2.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Dispersion..........40 early in the evening.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....South winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3980 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............67  65  63  62  61  60  59  58  57  57  56  55
RH..............56  63  69  75  76  78  78  80  80  81  83  82
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..12  12  12  12  12  12  9   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.20  20  20  20  20  20  15  15  15  15  15  15
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.7   7   7   7   7   7   5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd gst.20  20  20  20  20  20  15  15  15  15  15  15
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.30  32  35  36  35  32  31  32  33  33  32  30
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10

.FRIDAY...

Temperature.........Max 67.
RH..................Min 32 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 26 mph increasing to west 28 to
                    36 mph in the afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 7 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Dispersion..........72 decreasing to 53.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 7 to 13 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 5000 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6876 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............55  55  56  58  60  62  64  65  65  66  64  62
RH..............83  83  77  72  62  54  47  42  37  33  32  32
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8   8   8   13  13  13  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  25  25  25  25  25  25
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Eye lvl wnd spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   8   8   8   8   8   8
Eye lvl wnd gst.15  15  15  15  15  15  25  25  25  25  25  25
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.26  23  20  18  21  24  28  30  33  35  36  36
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

$$
Forecaster...C Dalton
Requested by...Michael Haisten
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702422.4/LZK
.EMAIL Mhaisten@fs.fed.us



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