Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FNUS72 KMFL 161053
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR CP3 1 RX...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
653 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR
EASTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL AT THE LOW LEVELS. THE OVERALL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
COMPARED TO MONDAY AS WELL AS THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY FOR THE INTERIOR AND THE GULF COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHERLY (MAINLY MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH)
TODAY. THE FIRE LOCATION WILL BE LOCATED AT AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN
THE EAST COAST WINDS AND THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COMES IN IN THE EVENING, WINDS
COULD TURN A LITTLE BIT MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNSET. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE MAINLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 59 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-3100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4000-4500 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....17...DECREASING TO 11 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM
SKY (%).........34     34     86     86     86     61
WEATHER COV.....              LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........              LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC
TEMP............86     87     88     87     85     80
RH..............67     61     61     63     70     79
20 FT WIND......E 3    E 3    SE 2   NE 2   NE 2   N 1
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....3100   3100   4500   4500   4000   2100
MIXNG WIND......E 6    E 6    SE 5   E 5    E 3    N 2
DISPERSION IDX..21     21     15     15     11     1
LVORI...........4      2      2      3      3      4
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     70     70     70     20
LAL.............1      1      4      4      4      2

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 75.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 94 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 2 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 1 TO 2 MPH
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....1.
LVORI...............5.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 61 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-3100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4000-4500 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....9...INCREASING TO 27 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...ESTUPINAN
REQUESTED BY...JACK WEER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140916.CP31R.01/MFL



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