Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FNUS72 KMLB 230959
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for RKS 006...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
559 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on October 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Increasing surface and transport layer winds will
lead to very good dispersion values from late morning through the
afternoon. An increasingly moist southerly flow will lead to
numerous showers and a few lightning storms developing by early
afternoon, perhaps as early as 11 or 10 AM should the activity
approaching the Florida west coast hold together.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (90 percent). A slight chance of
                    showers early in the morning. Showers likely
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1700 ft AGL increasing to 2400-3300 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 12 mph increasing to south at
                    20 to 22 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Dispersion index....3 increasing to 35 by mid morning, then increasing
                    to near 65 through early afternoon.
LVORI...............Decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........71  71  84  84  84  84  84  84  97  97  97  97
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............74  73  74  75  79  81  83  84  84  84  84  83
RH..............90  97  93  90  82  79  72  70  67  67  65  67
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   9   10  12  10  9   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.            10      15      10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   SW  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   5   7   12  18  22  21  17  15  16  17  18
Dispersion idx..3   3   3   16  39  61  62  66  42  40  42  42
LVORI...........7   7   6   5   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers likely early in
                    the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the evening. Chance of showers early in the
                    evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 2300, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 70.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......500-2400 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL late
                    in the evening.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 15 mph decreasing to 5 to 7 mph
                    after midnight.
Dispersion index....29 decreasing to 4.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 6 in the late evening and
                    overnight.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........97     89     89     89     84     84
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60     50     50     50     50     50
LAL.............2      2      2      1      1      1
Temp............82     77     76     75     74     73
RH..............69     79     85     88     88     88
20 ft wind......S 8    S 7    S 6    S 6    S 5    S 6
20 ft wind gust.10
Mix hgt (ft)....2400   1000   500    300    300    300
Transport wind..S 15   S 7    S 6    S 6    S 5    S 6
Dispersion idx..29     5      4      4      3      4
LVORI...........3      4      5      6      6      6

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers until late afternoon, then slight
                    chance of showers early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL increasing to 2600-3100 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 32.
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 3.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........84        81        81        57
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).50        40        40        40
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............72        73        76        81
RH..............92        87        79        63
20 FT wind......SW 6      W 5       W 7       W 9G10
Mix hgt (ft)....300       400       1300      2800
Transport wind..S 7       SW 6      W 9       W 10
Dispersion idx..5         7         17        33
LVORI...........7         6         4         3

$$
Forecaster...Cristaldi
Requested by...Benjamin Bandor
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717706.0/MLB
.EMAIL ben.bandor@dep.state.fl.us



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