Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FNUS72 KMLB 271508
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Tucker Fire...Florida Forest Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1108 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1200 EDT on June 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

.REST OF TODAY...A weakening frontal trough will slowly sag toward
Central Florida. This boundary, combined with afternoon heating and
associated moisture, will again support storms. Showers and storms will become
scattered to numerous during the afternoon and into this evening.
Light and variable winds coupled with afternoon rainfall will
lead to near saturated conditions, with surface relative humidity values
near 100 percent after 1000 PM and overnight.

While dense or widespread fog typically doesn`t form during the wet
season in Florida, this setup appears to favor significant settling
of smoke near and downwind of the burn zone.

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon, then numerous showers and
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 1400, then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2500-4000 ft AGL decreasing to 1800 ft AGL late
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 7 mph shifting to the northeast
                    5 to 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....22.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........63  63  77  77  77  85
Weather cov.....SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO NUM NUM NUM NUM
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  70  70  70  70
LAL.............4   4   4   4   4   4
Temp............89  92  90  87  85  83
RH..............64  57  61  66  71  76
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   SE  SE  E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.                10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 3.7 4.0 3.3 2.5 1.8
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   NW  NE  E
Transp wind spd.7   5   3   3   5   6
Dispersion idx..24  22  21  20  20  19
LVORI...........3   2   2   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Numerous showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the evening, then
                    scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
                    early in the evening. Isolated showers after
                    midnight.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 2000, then 1-8 strikes
                    until 2300, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 72.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 8 mph shifting to the south 8 to 9
                    mph early in the evening, then shifting to the
                    southeast 3 to 7 mph in the late evening and
                    early morning shifting to the north around 3
                    mph early in the morning.
Dispersion index....9 decreasing to 3 in the late evening and
                    overnight.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 8.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........85     86     86     86     73     73
Weather cov.....NUMRUS SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........NUMRUS ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).70     50     50     50     50     50
LAL.............4      2      2      1      1      1
Temp............81     77     76     75     74     73
RH..............81     89     90     93     93     95
20 ft wind......E 8    NE 6   E 3    E 2    SE 3   NE 2
20 ft wind gust.10            5             5
Mix hgt (ft)....1500   1000   700    500    400    400
Transport wind..E 8    S 9    E 7    E 5    SE 5   NE 3
Dispersion idx..13     6      3      2      2      2
LVORI...........4      6      6      7      7      8

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1100, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 8 mph late in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the morning.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL increasing to 2600-4100 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Northeast 3 to 5 mph shifting to the east 6 to
                    10 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 26.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 3.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........73     70     70     70     74     74
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).50     50     50     50     50     50
LAL.............1      2      2      3      3      3
Temp............73     76     84     88     89     87
RH..............99     94     72     63     59     65
20 ft wind......N 2    N 3    NE 5   NE 6   E 8    E 9
20 ft wind gust.       5                    10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....400    300    1900   3100   4100   3400
Transport wind..N 3    N 3    E 6    E 7    E 8    E 10
Dispersion idx..2      2      14     23     23     26
LVORI...........9      7      3      2      2      3

$$
Forecaster...Johnson
Requested by...John Kern
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1711714.0/MLB
.EMAIL john.kern@freshfromflorida.com



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