Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FNUS72 KMLB 160739
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for WS 30E...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
339 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on August 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...The low-level high pressure ridge axis is forecast to
lift slowly from near Lake Okeechobee into the central Florida peninsula
over the next 24 hours. The pressure gradient will be very light with
mainly light/variable winds (20 ft/transport) with thunderstorm outflows
making wind direction even more erratic at times. Generally poor to
marginal fair smoke dispersion at best. Scattered afternoon lightning
storms are expected, mainly after 200 PM.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy during the afternoon (70-80 percent).
                    Chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until at around 1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 96.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in the
                    morning and early afternoon, then becoming light and
                    variable into late afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......300-600 ft AGL increasing to 4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West to northwest 2 to 5 mph.
Dispersion index....Increasing up to around 31.
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........30  30  37  37  37  37  37  37  74  74  74  74
Weather cov.....                                CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   3   3   3
Temp............80  80  80  83  86  90  91  92  93  93  93  93
RH..............85  88  88  80  72  64  60  58  54  54  54  54
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   NE  E
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   5   5   5   5   3   3   2   2
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 1.4 2.6 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.2   2   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Dispersion idx..1   2   2   12  21  31  31  31  31  29  28  26
LVORI...........8   7   6   5   3   2   1   1   1   1   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2300, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 78.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......1800-3400 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL in the
                    evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Mainly light and variable.
Dispersion index....18 decreasing to 1.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 8.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........74     68     68     68     49     49
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).40     30     30     10     10     10
LAL.............3      3      3      1      1      1
Temp............90     85     83     82     80     79
RH..............60     72     80     82     85     88
20 ft wind......E 2    S 2    SW 2   W 2    W 2    NW 2
20 ft wind gust.
Mix hgt (ft)....3400   300    300    300    300    300
Transport wind..W 3    S 2    SW 3   W 3    W 2    NW 2
Dispersion idx..18     2      2      1      1      1
LVORI...........2      3      4      6      7      8

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning.
                    Showers and thunderstorms likely in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 9-15 strikes until
                    1100, then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......300-600 ft AGL increasing to 4000-4500 ft AGL
                    late in the morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 5 mph.
Dispersion index....Increasing up to around 23.
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........49        42        42        77
Weather cov.....          CHANCE    LIKELY    LIKELY
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........          CHANCE    LIKELY    LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).30        60        60        60
LAL.............1         3         4         4
Temp............79        83        90        91
RH..............88        80        64        60
20 FT wind......NW 2      W 2       SW 3G5    SW 3G5
Mix hgt (ft)....300       1200      3500      4500
Transport wind..NW 2      W 2       SW 3      SW 5
Dispersion idx..1         4         17        23
LVORI...........8         5         2         2

$$
Forecaster...Sedlock
Requested by...Benjamin Bandor
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1714443.0/MLB
.EMAIL ben.bandor@dep.state.fl.us


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.