Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FNUS73 KMPX 161819
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Prairie Island Rx Burn...BIA
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1219 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CST on November 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Good afternoon. Weather condition will not change much today.
Expect clouds to persist along with southeast winds of 5 to
10 mph. RH values will be around 55 to 65 percent. If anything
winds should increase to around 10 to 15 mph later this afternoon
and take on a more southerly direction after sunset. If you have
any questions call us at 952-361-6671 and speak directly with
a forecaster.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly Cloudy.
Temperature.........35 at ignition...Max 37.
RH..................63 percent at ignition...Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 8 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 7 to 12
                    mph.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2100-2600
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 20 mph increasing to around 24
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing winds........Southeast 12 to 20 mph increasing to around 24
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /24700 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /44600 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CST)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Temp............35  37  37  37  36
RH..............63  56  59  59  64
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..8   10  10  11  12
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.1
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.12  14  16  20  24
Mixing wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Mixing wind spd.12  14  16  20  24
Haines index....5   4   4   4   5
SDspl kt-ft/100025  30  36  40  45

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
Temperature.........Min 36.
RH..................Max 79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    increasing to 30 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......1800-2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 28 to 31 mph.
Mixing winds........South 28 to 31 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (45200 knot-ft).

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Temp............36     36     37     37     38     39
RH..............64     67     67     70     70     70
20 ft wind......SE 12  SE 11  SE 11  SE 11  SE 12  SE 13
20 ft wind gust.20     25     30     25     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....1900   1900   1900   1900   2000   2100
Transport wind..SE 28  SE 30  SE 31  S 31   S 31   S 31
Mixing wind.....SE 28  SE 30  SE 31  S 31   S 31   S 31
Haines index....5      5      5      5      4      3
SDspl kt-ft/100045     48     51     53     55     56

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle in the
                    morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon.
                    Chance of rain 50 percent.
Temperature.........Max 44.
RH..................Min 67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......2000-2700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 28 mph decreasing to around 7 mph.
Mixing winds........South 20 to 28 mph decreasing to around 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (16400-47400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Temp............39     39     40     42     44     44
RH..............73     79     82     86     82     82
20 ft wind......S 12   S 10   S 8    S 7    S 6    SE 5
20 ft wind gust.25     20     15     15     10
Mix hgt (ft)....2000   2000   2100   2300   2400   2600
Transport wind..S 28   S 24   S 21   S 20   S 15   S 10
Mixing wind.....S 28   S 24   S 21   S 20   S 15   S 10
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2
SDspl kt-ft/100047     42     38     38     32     24

$$
Forecaster...BEITLICH
Requested by...Dave Pergolski
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1718928.0/MPX
.EMAIL david.pergolski@bia.gov


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