Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FNUS74 KOUN 191920
FWSOUN

Spot Forecast for Flying M Ranch Rx Complex (2017)...Wichita Falls Fire Dept
National Weather Service Norman OK
120 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 CST on February 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (405) 325-3816, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers are beginning to develop across portions of western Texas,
and through 1 PM CST, have started to move into southern Archer County. This
type of shower activity is expected to continue through the afternoon, with
the chance for thunderstorms increasing near 3 PM and continuing into the
evening. There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for late this
afternoon into the evening. Frequent lightning and damaging hail are the
primary concern. Overall, thunderstorm wind gusts could result in erratic
directions and significant gusts. Storm chances will decrease overnight, as
activity shifts eastward.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Chance of
                    showers through the day. Chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 12 mph early in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3900-4900 ft AGL decreasing to 2900 ft AGL late
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 12 mph early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (28900-48300 knot-ft).

TIME (CST)      2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........83     97
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........S CHC  CHANCE
TEMP............69     70
RH..............73     71
20 FT WIND......S 12   S 12
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....4900   3900
MIX HGT (M).....1490   1190
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 9   S 7
TRANSP WIND DIR.150    160
TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 4   S 3
VRATE KTFT/1000.48     36

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the evening, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......200-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (1200-22300 knot-ft).

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........95     95     93     92     92     97
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............67     63     61     60     59     57
RH..............75     87     93     90     87     83
20 FT WIND......S 9    S 9    S 9    S 8    S 8    SW 8
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1900   700    200    300    500    300
MIX HGT (M).....580    210    60     90     150    90
TRANSPORT WIND..S 14   S 20   S 16   S 9    S 9    S 9
TRANSP WIND DIR.160    170    170    180    190    200
TRAN WIND (M/S).S 6    S 9    S 7    S 4    S 4    S 4
VRATE KTFT/1000.22     13     6      3      4      2

.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL increasing to 5900-6700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (2000-47200 knot-ft).

TIME (CST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........84        65        28        21
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............56        60        69        74
RH..............80        60        39        32
20 FT WIND......SW 6G10   SW 6G10   W 7G10    SW 7G10
MIX HGT (FT)....300       3300      5900      6700
MIX HGT (M).....90        1010      1800      2040
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 7      W 12      W 9       NW 9
TRANSP WIND DIR.210       250       280       300
TRAN WIND (M/S).SW 3      W 5       W 4       NW 4
VRATE KTFT/1000.2         27        47        39

$$
Forecaster...KURTZ
Requested by...Regan Reser
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702451.0/OUN
.EMAIL rreser@tfs.tamu.edu



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