Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FNUS73 KPAH 111500
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for West Tract...USDA FOREST SERVICE
National Weather Service Paducah KY
900 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on December 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

There is a limited fire risk over the rest of southeast Missouri into
southern Illinois and west Kentucky due to the gusty winds and 10 hour
fuels drying out today. Relative humidities will fall into the 35 to 40
percent range.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........45 at ignition...Max 56.
RH..................58 percent at ignition...Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    winds becoming southwest 13 to 16 mph
                    with gusts to around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 100-1300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 8 mph increasing to southwest 14 to
                    21 mph late in the morning, then increasing to
                    16 to 25 mph in the afternoon shifting to the
                    west around 13 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition.

TIME (CST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0
Temp............45     52     55     54
RH..............58     44     38     40
20 FT wind dir..S      SW     SW     SW
20 FT wind spd..10     15     16     14
20 FT wind gust.20     25     30     20
Mix hgt (ft)....700    1300   1100   400
Transp wind dir.S      SW     SW     SW
Transp wind spd.14     25     24     16
Haines index....5      5      5      5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 28.
RH..................Max 72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 10 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 25
                    mph increasing to 30 mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......300-1400 ft AGL increasing to 2900-4200 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 20 mph increasing to northwest 29 to
                    37 mph early in the evening.
Haines Index........2 around midnight increasing to 4 by sunrise.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR PCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............48     45     42     39     37     33
RH..............49     55     62     67     70     72
20 FT wind dir..W      NW     NW     NW     NW     NW
20 FT wind spd..13     12     12     14     15     16
20 FT wind gust.20     20     20     25     30     30
Mix hgt (ft)....300    2900   4200   3500   3700   3600
Transp wind dir.W      NW     NW     NW     NW     NW
Transp wind spd.13     29     37     32     33     32
Haines index....4      3      2      2      3      3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 35.
RH..................Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 7 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30
                    mph.
Mixing height.......2900-4600 ft AGL decreasing to 1800 ft AGL late
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 28 mph decreasing to around 15
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............29     28     29     33     35     33
RH..............72     66     58     45     38     41
20 FT wind dir..NW     NW     NW     NW     NW     NW
20 FT wind spd..15     14     14     10     10     9
20 FT wind gust.30     25     20     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....3100   2900   3300   4000   4600   3200
Transp wind dir.NW     NW     NW     NW     NW     NW
Transp wind spd.28     26     24     22     23     20
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4

$$
Forecaster...LAMM
Requested by...Shawnee National Forest
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719822.0/PAH
.EMAIL wjiter@fs.fed.us



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