Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FNUS71 KPHI 050950
FWSPHI

SPOT FORECAST FOR CRESCO COMPLEX FIRE...DCNR FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
550 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0538 EDT ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN MEANDERS AND
WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
WIND SHIFT..........
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2500 FT AGL.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............100 100 100 100 100 100 98  95  93  93  92  92
WEATHER COV.........                            SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................45  44  44  46  47  48  49  50  51  52  53  53
RH..................90  93  93  87  84  79  76  75  72  70  70  70
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   7   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
SURFACE WND DIR.....NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N
SURFACE WND SPD.....7   8   8   9   9   9   9   9   8   8   8   8
SURFACE WND GST.....10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.8
CWR.................10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  30  30  40
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  30  30  40
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY LATE. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.
CWR.................40 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
WIND SHIFT..........
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1400 FT AGL.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............94     100    100    100    100    100
WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................53     52     50     49     48     46
RH..................70     72     76     79     85     88
20 FT WIND..........N 6    N 6    N 6    N 6    NE 6   NE 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     10     10     10
SURFACE WIND........N 7    N 7    N 6    N 6    NE 6   NE 5
SURFACE WND GST.....10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........1400   800    700    700    800    900
CWR.................40     40     40     40     50     60
CHC OF PCPN (%).....40     40     40     40     50     60
LAL.................1      1      1      1      1      1

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.
                    SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    PERIODS OF RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING. A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MIN HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................70 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400...THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
WIND SHIFT..........
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2600 FT AGL.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............100    100    100    99     96     99
WEATHER COV.........LIKELY PERIOD PERIOD PERIOD PERIOD PERIOD
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
TSTM COV............                            S CHC  S CHC
TEMP................47     49     51     53     53     54
RH..................85     84     80     78     79     77
20 FT WIND..........NE 6   N 6    NE 6   NE 7   NE 7   NE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     10     10     10     10
SURFACE WIND........NE 6   N 6    NE 7   NE 8   NE 8   NE 8
SURFACE WND GST.....10     10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........1000   1300   1800   2400   2600   2300
CWR.................70     90     90     100    100    100
CHC OF PCPN (%).....70     90     90     100    100    100
LAL.................1      1      1      1      5      5

$$
FORECASTER...DRAG
REQUESTED BY...SHAWN TURNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160505.CRESC.01/PHI



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