Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FNUS74 KTSA 130851
FWSTSA

Spot Forecast for Presson Oglesby Burn...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
351 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on September 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact NWS Tulsa at (918)838-7838, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure across the area today will keep winds light,
with near normal afternoon temperatures expected. Above normal
temperatures will make a return tomorrow as the high pressure
shifts to the east and winds become southerly. Afternoon relative
humidities both today and tomorrow are expected to be in the 35 to
40 percent range.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Dewpoint............57.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......200-1900 ft AGL increasing to 5500-6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 2 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (300 knot-ft).
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).72 increasing to 82 in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........54  49  45  40  36  32  29  26  23  21
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............61  64  68  73  76  80  82  83  84  83
Dewpoint........56  57  58  58  58  57  57  56  56  56
RH..............83  77  69  60  53  46  43  39  39  39
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   4   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.1 1.9 3.1 4.4 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.9
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.5   7   8   9   8   8   8   8   7   7
VRate kt-ft/1K..6   6   6   6   6   9   9   9   9   9
1700FT Mix T(F).70  68  68  71  76  80  82  84  84  83

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Dewpoint............58.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......4000-5600 ft AGL decreasing to 100-700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 6 mph shifting to the northeast
                    around 2 mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (400 knot-ft).
Stability class.....5.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).81.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........18  15  13  12  10  9   7   6   5   4   3   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............82  79  76  72  69  66  65  64  63  62  61  60
Dewpoint........57  57  58  59  60  59  59  59  59  58  58  58
RH..............43  46  54  63  73  77  82  85  87  85  88  93
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  SW  S   S   SE  SE  E   E   E   NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..4   3   2   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5                   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...5.6 5.0 4.0 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  W   W   W   SW  SE  E   E   E   NE  NE
Transp wind spd.6   5   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
VRate kt-ft/1K..9   3   3   3   3   3   3   0   0   0   0   0
1700FT Mix T(F).80  79  80  81  82  83  82  82  82  82  82  82

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Dewpoint............58 increasing to 60 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......100-1900 ft AGL increasing to 6200-7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 2 mph shifting to the south 3 to 9
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (400 knot-ft).
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).78 decreasing to 76 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 88 in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   1   1   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............59  59  62  67  72  77  82  86  89  90  91  90
Dewpoint........58  57  59  60  62  61  61  60  60  59  59  60
RH..............96  92  89  79  70  57  49  42  38  35  35  37
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  S   S   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   3   3   4   4   5   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.3 4.9 6.2 6.8 7.0 6.9 6.8
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.2   2   2   3   3   5   5   6   6   7   8   9
VRate kt-ft/1K..0   5   5   5   5   5   5   8   8   8   8   8
1700FT Mix T(F).82  81  77  74  72  75  81  86  89  91  91  90

$$
Forecaster...K.HATFIELD
Requested by...Kyle Lapham
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1715776.0/TSA
.EMAIL klapham@tnc.org



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