Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FNUS73 KUNR 271802
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR GUARD SCHOOL...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1202 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MDT ON MAY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS...
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL
POSSIBLE. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STORMS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND THEN RETURN AGAIN FOR THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........65 AT IGNITION...MAX 66.
RH..................60 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................80 PERCENT.
LAL.................4.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 TO 5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO GOOD BY MID AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45.
RH..................MAX 99 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...
                    SHIFTING TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 TO 700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 68.
RH..................MIN 50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
CWR.................55 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 TO 4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.

$$
FORECASTER...KP
REQUESTED BY...AKNEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150527.GUARD.01/UNR


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