Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS California-Nevada RFC

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Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
930 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...PRECIP NW CA/SRN OR THROUGH EARLY FRI...
...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: WED AM - SAT AM)...

A slow-moving cold front off the northern CA/southern OR coast is
bringing light precip to far NW CA and SW OR this morning.  Expect
light precip to persist through tonight mainly on the north coast as
moisture spreads a bit to the south.  Expect precip rates to
increase a bit late Wed night into Thu in the Smith basin as a front
moves into the region.  Expect precip to end on Fri.  Next system
reaches northern CA potential late Fri night.  Models are
inconsistent in timing, and went with a consensus approach for now,
probably a bit more toward the slower models.  Expect freezing
levels generally above 10000 ft except lowering to 7000-10000 ft by
Thu night behind the front.

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: SAT AM - TUE AM)...

Precipitation increases over the weekend into Monday with a system
moving through. Some precipitation possible on Saturday (mainly
around Monterey Bay and up into the Central Sierra and north with a
warm front. Although the EC is slower and farther north and drier
than the GFS. Increased amounts with a lean towards a blend of the
GFS/EC for the forecast. The cold front and the upper level trough
move through the region Sunday into Monday bringing more
precipitation to Southern Oregon, Northern and Central Ca and NV.
Ridge builds in behind the trough drying things out late Monday.

Freezing levels above 10,000 ft on Saturday drop down to around 6000
ft in the far north to around 9000 ft for the Northern Sierra on
Sunday and dropping to around 3500 ft in Shasta region and 4000-
6000ft for the Northern and Central Sierra by Monday morning with
showers behind the cold front.

.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

A slight exceedence of monitor stage is forecast to occur in about
four days on the Truckee River at Truckee. No other locations are
forecast to exceed monitor or flood stage.

More information on the CNRFC website at http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov

KL/HSO/BM

$$



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