Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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AGUS71 KTAR 291525
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1121 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS WEST TO THE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWEST AS A BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WHILE THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT MOVES LITTLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE. FORCING FOR RAINFALL REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT TODAY SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MAINE.
:
BY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO COASTAL EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
:
ALL TOLD...BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS APPROACHING OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDING 0.25 INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MAINE AND OVER
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. MOST OF VERMONT
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
RIVER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST REGION.  THE FORECAST RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NOTICEABLE RISES, BUT MAY SLOW
THE RECESSIONS A LITTLE.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE, 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHEAST REGION ARE RUNNING AT
NORMAL TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  HOWEVER,
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK, SOME RIVER
FLOWS ARE REPORTING AT NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS FOR THIS POINT IN
THE YEAR.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                JEANE WALLACE




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