Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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AGUS71 KTAR 171608
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1207 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

*** WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ***
*** FLOODWATERS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE IN NORTHERN NEW YORK ***
*** NO BIG RAINS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND ***

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
15Z ( 11 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG COLD
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. THIS
HIGH IS SUPPLYING MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER FOR APRIL TO THE
SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. THE ONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND
WHERE THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS PUSHING LOW CLOUDINESS
INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS. THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
:
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINSHOWERS WILL COME ACROSS INTERIOR NEW YORK
STATE AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SWINGING EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. RIGHT NOW...PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIGHT WITH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL GENERALLY NEAR OR UNDER 0.10
INCHES EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE BASIN AVERAGES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 0.10 - 0.25 INCH RANGE. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR.
:
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
NOT COME UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND EVEN THAT IS
FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THAT IS GOOD NEWS IN THAT THE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW MANY OF THE RIVERS IN FLOOD TO
CONTINUE THEIR RECESSION OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR SO.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AS WELL AS THE MAINSTEM
CONNECTICUT RIVER.
:
MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK NY,
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE LOWER BLACK RIVER AT
WATERTOWN, NY...AND THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER AT MATTAWAMKEAG, ME.
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.  MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE
HADDAM, CT BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.
:
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE BACK TOWARD MORE NORMAL
LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL
STILL BE OCCURRING ON THE SCHROON RIVER, THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER,
AND THE LOWER END OF THE MAINSTEM CONNECTICUT RIVER THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC SHOWS SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS
OCCURRING ON THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK, NY...THE BLACK RIVER
AT WATERTOWN, NY...AND THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER AT MATTAWAMKEAG, ME.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ON THE SCHROON RIVER, BUT SHOULD HAVE SUBSIDED BACK TO MINOR FLOOD
LEVELS ON THE BLACK AND MATTAWAMKEAG RIVERS BY LATE FRIDAY.
:
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS LIKELY ON THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER AT
MIDDLE HADDAM, CT BEGINNING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://W2.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:        RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                 JEANE WALLACE




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