Ice Forecast
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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165
FZAK80 PAFC 262241
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
240 PM AKDT MONDAY 26 SEPTEMBER 2016

FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY 1 OCTOBER 2016

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST AND DISSIPATE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH OF EASTERN RUSSIA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-

ICE COVERED.

-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 74.7N 135W TO 75.1N 158W TO
73.4N 160.7W TO 71.3N 151.4W TO 70.8N 151.9W TO NEAR BARROW TO THE
ALASKA COAST NEAR 71.1N 157.2W TO 72.3N 167.5W TO 71.5N 168.5W AND
CONTINUES IN RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER
CONSISTING OF NEW SEA ICE THAT IS FORMING OVERNIGHT OR DURING
PERIODS OF LIGHT WINDS.

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA...OVER THE REMAINING
SEA ICE PACK WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PERIODS OF SW WINDS
WILL LIKELY AID IN MOVING THE NEAR SHORE SEA ICE BELT OFF TO THE NW.
IF THAT BELT CAN BE MOVED OVER DEEPER WATERS TO THE N OF POINT
BARROW...THE ODDS ARE MUCH BETTER THAT WE CAN KEEP THE FIRST YEAR
ICE AWAY FROM THE NEAR SHORE NAVIGATIONAL WATERS. GENERALLY SPEAKING
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ISOLATED NARROW BELTS OF SEA ICE BEING STRIPPED
OFF TO THE NE OF POINT BARROW DURING PERIODS OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
NAVIGATIONAL WATERS JUST AROUND THE POINT MAY BE IMPACTED WITH OTHER
AREAS NEAR THE NW COAST SEEING MAINLY OPEN WATER CONDITIONS. THE
OVERALL ICE PACK IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT UP TO 25 NM TO
THE N TO NW THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA...NEAR THE ICE EDGE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
IT IS LIKELY THAT NEWLY FORMED SEA ICE WITHIN THE PACK WILL
CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE ICE EDGE. NEW SEA ICE MAY TEMPORARILY FORM IN
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR FRESHWATER RIVER DELTAS OF THE NORTH SLOPE OF
ALASKA AS WELL.

$$



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