Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 290814
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
314 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WWD ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO ERN GULF
NEAR 24N89W EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
NW HALF OF BASIN...PRESENTLY EXTENDING FROM WRN FL PANHANDLE TO
NEAR 26.5N91W TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 95W. NLY WINDS 20-30 KT
EARLY TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 KT PER RECENT ASCAT
PASSES EXCEPT FOR 20-25 KT OFF OF VERACRUZ. PEAK SEAS STILL 7-9
FT BEHIND FRONT S OF 26N PER RECENT BUOY OBS....WHILE MILD SE TO S
FLOW E OF THE FRONT IS YIELDING SEAS 2-4 FT. LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NNE ACROSS WRN ATLC FORCING
S/W SUPPORTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY UP AND OVER RIDGE...WITH N PORTION
OF FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NE PORTIONS THROUGH
EARLY TUE...WHILE SW PORTIONS MEANDER ACROSS WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN SIGNIFICANTLY TUE AND ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE U.S. EXTENDING S INTO NRN GULF...WHILE
STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING INTO GREAT PLAINS FORCES FRONT MORE SE AND
ACROSS N HALF OF GULF BY TUE EVENING...ROUGHLY EXTENDING FROM S FL
NEAR THE LAKE TO SW GULF ALONG 96.5W WHERE COASTAL TROUGH WILL
THEN SET UP NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST A WAVE OR COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG E COAST OF FL LATE WED THROUGH THU...AND ILL
DEFINED FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH REMAINDER OF PENINSULA AND TO THE
KEYS EXTENDING WWD ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE
FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT N IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
WRN GULF COASTAL TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS. LOW FORECAST TO LIFT NWD
ALONG BOUNDARY THU-THU NIGHT AND THEN NE INTO LOUISIANA FRI-SAT.
WEAK COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SLOWLY INTO NW PORTIONS SAT AS THIS
OCCURS. NE TO E WINDS TO FRESHEN N OF BOUNDARY LATE TUE-WED AS
FRONT SINKS SE ACROSS FL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW PORTIONS...THEN
BRIEF WINDOW FOR NLY WINDS TO 30 KT W OF LOW AND TROUGHING ACROSS
W PORTIONS WED NIGHT...AND BROAD AREA OF ENE 25 KT TO E OF TROUGH
NW PORTIONS. MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF
CUT OFF LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND APPROACHING WRN TEXAS
THU-SAT AND THUS CONFIDENCE IMPROVING FOR LATTER PART OF FCST
PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 29-30N ACROSS W CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING MODESTLY ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO ERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND YIELDING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS S CENTRAL
CARIB FOR AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADES S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W
ATTM. NOCTURNAL MAX PULSING TO AROUND 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA...AND
COULD BRIEFLY REACH NEAR GALE FORCE NEXT FEW NIGHT. MAX SEAS THERE
EXPECTED TO PEAK EACH NIGHT 10-11 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
GENERALLY PREVAIL ELSEWHERE E OF 82W WITH TYPICAL SEAS. STRONG
LONG PERIOD NE SWELL IMPACTING REGIONAL ATLC PAST 24 HOURS AND
BLEEDING THROUGH CARIB PASSAGES WILL FADE QUICKLY STARTING LATER
TODAY. E OF THE ISLANDS...MODERATE TRADES 15 TO 20 KT WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT OR GREATER TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS ATLC
RIDGE REALIGNS. PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CARIB TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
TODAY AS ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT E...BUT GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN THU-FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OF SE U.S. AND INTO SW N
ATLC...AND MAY ALLOW FOR NOCTURNAL GALES OFF COLOMBIA WED THROUGH
FRI NIGHTS...AND MOST LIKELY FRI NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SNAKES ACROSS THE ATLC FROM CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
20N45.4W TO JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRES RIDGE
TO THE N ALONG 29-30N EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT 15-20
KT S OF 22N...AND RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING 20 KT THROUGH WINDWARD
PASSAGE. WAVE MODELS A FEW FEET TO LOW SE PORTIONS WITH THE LONG
PERIOD NE SWELL PREVAILING...WITH BUOY 41043 STILL AT 8 FT. THIS
SWELL TO GRADUALLY FADE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SOUTHERLY FLOW 10-15 KT N AND NW OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA
OVERNIGHT TUE...WITH E PORTION CONTINUING SE THROUGH
THU...REACHING NEAR 27N65W...WHILE SW PORTIONS OF THE FRONT STALL
ACROSS EXTREME S FL AND NW BAHAMAS AND BECOME ILL DEFINED AS A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF E COAST OF FLORIDA. PRES GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN BEHIND FRONT LATE THU-FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES E INTO SW N
ATLC AND TRADES FRESHEN S OF 24N.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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