Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 311821
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1145 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA
EXTENDS FROM BIG BEND REGION TO CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N87W. THE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH WED...
REACHING ALONG 86W...BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE WED. THE YUCATAN
THERMAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN TUE AND WED
WITH ENHANCED WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT SHIFTING WWD EACH EVENING WITH
TROUGH. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ACROSS THE N GULF
WED TO PRODUCE MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS S HALF OF BASIN AND
ALLOW FOR YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH TO SET UP EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 9 FT BASED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS.
BUOY 42058 LOCATED NEAR 15N75W REPORTS SEAS TO 7 FT. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
EARLY WED AS HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF AREA...THEN WILL DIMINISH BY
THU AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W WILL MOVE W AND ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CARIB
THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS THE E CARIB TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT AND WED...THEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIB WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIEWS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIEWS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA
LOCATED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND A 1022 MB HIGH PRES
SITUATED NEAR 30N69W HAS DIMINISHED AND SE-S WINDS ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO A GENTLE AND MODERATE BREEZE. SURFACE DATA FROM
BUOYS 41009 AND 41010 CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS.
THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRES EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS. WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS THE S-SW PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...PARTICULARLY N OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND SE BAHAMAS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NE WATERS THROUGH WED TO PRODUCE
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE AREA.
THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SINKS SLOWLY S ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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