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000
AGXX40 KNHC 191827
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
227 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...GFS BLENDED WITH NAM80 THROUGH 48 HOURS AND
WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 27N ACROSS THE GULF. MORNING
SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
LOW PRES REMAINING OVER NW TEXAS. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE...THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THU THEN
LIFTING OUT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH WED AND WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM80 THROUGH 48 HOURS TO CAPTURE
LOCAL EFFECTS OFF YUCATAN AND THE ENHANCED FLOW OVER THE NW GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OSCAT DATA FROM 04 UTC INDICATED WINDS 20 TO 25 KT OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. THIS HAS LIKELY DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT SINCE AS THE
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA INFLUENCING THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS WEAKENED. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
LIKELY RETURN OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILD AGAIN TO THE
NORTH. FARTHER TO THE SE...A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 13N...AND WILL PUSH INTO
TRINIDAD AND NE VENEZUELA LATER TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE HIGH PRES OVER
THE WESTERN ATLC WILL ALLOW EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO FRESHEN ACROSS
THE SE CARIBBEAN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE GLOBAL OR ENSEMBLE MODELS WITH REGARD TO
THE PATTERN...FORECAST FOLLOWS GFS BLEND WITH THE OFFICIAL TO
CAPTURE STRONGER WINDS STARTING OFF TODAY OFF COLOMBIA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THU AND FRI
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING TO 29N E OF 70W AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SE PAST 65W THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES S OF 25N. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE A SWATH OF E TO SE WINDS TO 20 KT FROM
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THROUGH MON...THE
AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS WILL EXPAND TO COVER ALL OF THE
BAHAMAS TO THE NE FLORIDA COAST AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST.
WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THROUGH MID WEEK...THE SITUATION IS
LESS CLEAR TOWARD LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT DEPICTING A LOW PRES AREA FORMING OFF NE FLORIDA. IT
HAS BACKED OFF A MORE AGGRESSIVE STANCE IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...AND NOW SHOWS THE LOW FORMING INLAND. FORECAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK IS A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS SHOWING WEAK
TROUGHING FORMING OFF NE FLORIDA BY FRI.

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL
BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.