Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 290735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL BECOME
ABSORBED LATER TODAY BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS MERGED FRONT WILL
RESIDE FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF NEAR
VERA CRUZ TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON FRIDAY FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ON
SATURDAY. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NW OF THE COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST W OF 96W WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES...A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COVERING MUCH
OF THE GULF BASIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW AFTERWARDS.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W WILL CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FRIDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGING
AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
E TO NE WINDS JUST N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST THROUGH TODAY...THEN
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BREAK DOWN AS MATTHEW APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST.

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IS MAKING ITS TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
HURRICANE BY FRIDAY AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LARGE
SWELL PRODUCED BY MATTHEW WHILE OVER THE ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH
STRONG TRADES WILL SUPPORT SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT WELL TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH TODAY. SEAS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL VARY FROM LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 25 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF
MATTHEW...TO 8 FT NEAR PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAX
SEAS NEAR THE CENTER OF MATTHEW INCREASING TO GREATER THAN 30 FT
AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MATTHEW WILL MAKE
A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON SATURDAY AS INDICATED BY MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARD EASTERN CUBA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS STILL DIVERGE BY A FEW HUNDRED MILES
BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AS WELL IMPACTING
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE SAT THROUGH TUE TIME PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW AFTERWARDS.

SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE NORTHERN
PORTION WILL THEN RESIDE BETWEEN A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO THE BAHAMAS AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE EXTREME
NW WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY THERE SATURDAY...THEN
DISSIPATING THROUGH SUNDAY.

ACROSS THE SE ZONES EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM
MATTHEW TODAY. THESE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD
TO THE NORTH OF MATTHEW THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH NO EFFECTS FROM MATTHEW ON THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE
SYSTEM MAKES A BRIEF WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD JOG FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN
INCREASES AS MOST MODELS EVENTUALLY TAKE MATTHEW NORTHWEST THEN
NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN CUBA...THEN OVER THE BAHAMAS. WITH CURRENT 5
DAY FORECASTS FROM NHC ADVISORIES TAKING THE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN
CUBA...POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
OFFSHORES...VOBRA...AND NAVTEX OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI.
     HURRICANE WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING
VENEZUELA BASIN...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY.
     HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ035...OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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