Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 221845
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS NEAR 28N89W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG
WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER
THE NE WATERS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE NE WATERS
AND 2-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THOUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.
SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-7 FT
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND 4-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH LITTLE AFFECT ON THE WINDS OR SEAS. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY N OF PUERTO RICO DISRUPTS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
20 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA N OF THE AREA
INHIBITS NE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE PASSAGE. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO WILL BE THE MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GALE WARNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS BEEN DROPPED AS THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATE WINDS PEAKING NEAR
30 KT. AS OF FRI AFTERNOON...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THIS
LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH
SUN MORNING...TRACKING THE FEATURE N OF HISPANIOLA TOWARD THE SE
BAHAMAS. THAT IS WHERE THERE IS A DIVERGENCE ON THE MODELS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF RECURVE THE SYSTEM...SHIFTING THE LOW NORTHWARD ONCE
IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...THEN NNE AFTERWARDS. THE GFS IS
EASTWARD OF THE ECMWF WITH THE LATEST TRACK...THOUGH BOTH MODELS
SHIFT THE LOW N OF THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET
BOTH TAKE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE
DISREGARDED IN THE LATEST NHC/WPC COORDINATED FORECAST POINTS
WHICH FAVORS THE TRACK OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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