Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 261644
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1243 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VALID 12Z SAT MAY 30 2015 - 12Z WED JUN 03 2015


THE POWERFUL STORM LIFTING INTO THE BERING SEA FRIDAY IS PROGGED
TO PUMP UP THE RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND, EVENTUALLY TO THE EXTENT
THAT A CLOSED HIGH CENTER PINCHES OFF TOWARD THE NORTH POLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE VERY HIGH LATITUDE OF THE CLOSED HIGH WILL ALLOW
UNDERCUTTING EASTERLIES INTO ALASKA. THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY OF
THE FLOW PROMISES A GENERALLY DRY REGIME FOR THE CONTINENT,
DESPITE THE BROAD, CYCLONIC PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF. THE BIGGEST
UPSTREAM QUESTION IS THE LATITUDE AND COHERENCY OF THE DAY-5
KAMCHATKA CYCLONE ONCE IT EXTRICATES ITSELF FROM THAT PENINSULA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY JUNE 2ND AND 3RD. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE THAN THE GFS/GEFS THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL CYCLES, SO A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN--WITH A GRADUAL PROGRESSION TOWARD THE MEAN WITH
TIME--SHOULD TELL THE SYNOPTIC TALE SUFFICIENTLY THIS MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD.


CISCO

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