Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 311722
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

VALID 12Z SAT JUN 04 2016 - 12Z WED JUN 08 2016

ENTERING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MIDST
OF TRANSITION TOWARD A BERING SEA UPPER LOW...WITH PORTIONS OF THE
LOW COMING FROM THE WEST AND ALSO FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THE FLOW
ACROSS THE ARCTIC OCEAN SEPARATES AND PIVOTS AROUND THE SMALL
UPPER HIGH. THE FLOW SURROUNDING THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW SHOULD
GENERALLY BE COOL AND MOIST...PARTICULARLY FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE
MAINLAND AND INTERIOR PORTIONS ARE LESS CLEAR AND DEPEND ON HOW
THE FLOW SEPARATES OVER THE ARCTIC. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ONE OF THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS IN ALLOWING A LARGE PORTION OF THE
ARCTIC OCEAN FLOW TO DRIFT ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND THE TOWARD THE
BERING SEA...THUS SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE
00-06Z GFS ARE WEAKER AND FLATTER...THUS SUPPORTING WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. SO UNTIL
THE SPREAD REDUCES...PLAN TO REMAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH A
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS PREFERRED FOR DAY 4 BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A PREDOMINANT ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND THEREAFTER.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN...IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD AND
PERSISTENT COASTAL PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE
MORE SCATTERED INLAND AND NORTHWARD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST WHICH
WILL BE UNDER GREATER INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER HIGH.

JAMES

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