Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 061053
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
553 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2016

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM 06/06
UTC: FORECAST AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
CAP INVERSION...WITH BROAD CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DOMINATING THE FLOW. AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS IT CONTINUES TO FAVOR
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE GRADUAL EROSION OF AVAILABLE WATER. MEANWHILE...IN
LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES...MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. BUT AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WANES
ON WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL THEN LIMIT TO WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CAP INVERSION STARTS TO
WANE.

RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH AXIS TO GRADUALLY ERODE
LATER THIS WEEK AS SUCCESSIVE POLAR PERTURBATIONS STREAM OVER THIS
AXIS. CAP INVERSION IS THEN EXPECTED TO RELAX ITS FOOTHOLD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THIS AREA THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE PROJECTS
PWAT CONTENT OF 1.75-2.00 INCHES ON FRIDAY AS AN EASTERLY WAVE
STREAMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ATMOSPHERE IS TO THEN REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING/SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FORECAST
AREA COMES UNDER INFLUENCE OF A PREFRONTAL/INVERTED TROUGH. THIS
IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MODERATE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

JIMENEZ...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MIRANDA...INAMEH (VENEZUELA)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$





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