Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 271043
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
643 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY 27/06
UTC: CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS EXPECTING MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO COLLAPSE UNDER PRESSURE FROM TROUGH
TO THE WEST. AS THE RIDGE RELAXES ITS FOOTHOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AND CAP INVERSION WANES...DEEPER MOISTURE IS TO THEN POOL
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A LONG
FETCH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT IS TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD...WITH PWAT OF TWO INCHES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND
ONWARD. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON IMPACT THIS
IS TO HAVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GFS FAVORING A
WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE EUROPEAN MODELS. BUT WITH MJO
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVING...WE CONTINUE TO LEAN IN FAVOR
OF THE WETTER GFS. THIS IS A SOLUTION WELL SUPPORTED BY THE NCEP
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. IN A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW...LATE
MORNING CONVECTION IS TO BUILD ALONG THE CORDILLERA.
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS TO THEN CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHERN
PUERTO RICO AS ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING/SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
MAXIMA IN THIS AREA IS LIKELY TO PEAK AT 2-4 INCHES PER DAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HIGHLY PROBABLE.

CARDOS...SMN (MEXICO)
CABANERIT...INAMEH (VENEZUELA)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

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