Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS24 KWNC 111643
PMDENS
EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM EST THU 11 FEB 2016

NOTE: FIGURES MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION ARE AVAILABLE
ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION /ENSO/ DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

ISSUED BY

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

AND THE INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

11 FEBRUARY 2016


ENSO ALERT SYSTEM STATUS: EL NINO ADVISORY

SYNOPSIS: A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL IS LIKELY DURING LATE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER 2016, WITH A POSSIBLE
TRANSITION TO LA NINA CONDITIONS DURING THE FALL.

INDICATIVE OF A STRONG EL NINO, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE /SSTS/
ANOMALIES WERE IN EXCESS OF 2?C ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN DURING JANUARY /FIG. 1/. THE NINO
INDICES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC DECLINED, WHILE NINO-3.4
AND NINO-4 WERE NEARLY UNCHANGED /FIG. 2/.  THE SUBSURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC INCREASED
DUE TO A DOWNWELLING KELVIN WAVE /FIG. 3/, BUT TOWARD THE END
OF THE MONTH WEAKENED AGAIN IN ASSOCATION WITH THE EASTWARD
SHIFT OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT DEPTH IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC /FIG. 4/.  ALSO, LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES
AND UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.  THE TRADITIONAL AND EQUATORIAL SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION INDEX /SOI/ VALUES REMAINED NEGATIVE BUT WEAKENED
RELATIVE TO LAST MONTH.  CONVECTION REMAINED MUCH ENHANCED OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC AND SUPPRESSED
OVER INDONESIA /FIG. 5/. COLLECTIVELY, THESE ANOMALIES REFLECT
THE CONTINUATION OF A STRONG EL NINO.

MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT EL NINO WILL WEAKEN, WITH A
TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL DURING THE LATE SPRING OR EARLY
SUMMER 2016 /FIG. 6/.  THEREAFTER, THE CHANCE OF LA NINA
CONDITIONS INCREASES INTO THE FALL.  WHILE THERE IS BOTH MODEL
AND PHYSICAL SUPPORT FOR LA NINA FOLLOWING STRONG EL NINO,
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.  A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL
IS LIKELY DURING LATE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER
2016, WITH A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO LA NINA CONDITIONS DURING
THE FALL /CLICK CPC/IRI CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR THE CHANCE OF
EACH OUTCOME FOR EACH 3-MONTH PERIOD/.

EL NINO HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT GLOBAL IMPACTS AND
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES DURING THE UPCOMING MONTHS /THE 3-MONTH
SEASONAL OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 18TH/.
THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR FEBRUARY - APRIL INDICATE AN INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE UNITED STATES, AND BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER.  ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN
THE NORTH AND WEST, AND BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.

$$


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