Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 011227
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
826 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

VALID 00Z THU OCT 02 2014 - 00Z THU OCT 09 2014

THE 1/00 UTC GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF/ECENS WERE VERY MUCH IN MASS FIELD
AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THEN DEPART INVOF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS--46N 173W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AT MID LATITUDES.

THE SURFACE TROUGH MIGRATING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SUBTROPICS ALONG 30N 160W REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK TO BE
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI AROUND THE 5/12Z TIME FRAME (DAY 4). THE 1/00Z
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF DEPICTS THIS SURFACE TROUGH AS A SLOW-MOVING
BUT ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW (1012MB ISH) WHILE THE 1/00Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS MAINTAINS MORE OF A `WASHED-OUT` STATIONARY
FRONT.

RECOMMEND THE MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH WITH THIS WAVE...WITH THE
1/00 UTC ECENS AND GEFS MEANS HANDLING THE PATTERN ALOFT IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BEYOND DAY 5.

OVERALL, A SULTRY...MORE HUMID WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION IS EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

VOJTESAK

$$




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