Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 271151
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
751 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

VALID 00Z WED SEP 28 2016 - 00Z WED OCT 05 2016

MODELS, INCLUDING MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, HAVE CLUSTERED TOWARD
GREATER AGREEMENT FOR AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH FORMING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY THE END OF THIS WEEK, WHICH THEN FAVORS A
BROAD AND MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE THAT SHOULD
SUSTAIN MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AS THE TRADES PERSIST, MOISTURE FROM T.D. 19 MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ISLANDS ANYTIME FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY WHICH IS THE CURRENT
SOLUTION SPREAD, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS SHOWS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WEAKENING
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH IF CORRECT, WOULD ALLOW THE TRADES TO
WEAKEN THEN.

JAMES

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