Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 271231
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017

VALID 00Z FRI APR 28 2017 - 00Z FRI MAY 05 2017

MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK IN ALLOWING A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ISLANDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODEL SPREAD IS MODEST WITH THEIR
DETAILS, WITH WPC PREFERRING A SOLUTION ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF, WITH THE MODELS MOST AGREEING THAT THE BIG
ISLAND HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MORE THAN SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN THROUGH 12Z MONDAY, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES OF LOWER AMOUNTS
PROJECTED FOR THE WESTERN ISLANDS.

JAMES

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