Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
887
FXHW01 KWNH 081228
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
727 AM EST THU DEC 08 2016

VALID 00Z FRI DEC 09 2016 - 00Z FRI DEC 16 2016

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND... A MOIST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE STATE. A MID TO UPPER
TROUGH ALIGNED BETWEEN 170W TO 160W WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BUT DRAW NORTH A CONTINUOUS PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 1.5
INCHES. AS A RESULT EXPECT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL
SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
DOWNSTREAM AND MOVES PAST THE ISLANDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK... A
BIT MORE SPREAD BEGINS TO SHOW UP WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE
ECMWF/UKMET ARE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DRIVING A RATHER STRONG
FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE ISLANDS AND SHIFTING THE
ENTIRE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THE LATEST GFS
APPEARS TO BE ALMOST A DAY SLOWER IN NOT DRIVING THE TROUGH/FRONT
THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY. THE BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION WILL BE
TEMPORARY MID WEEK... AS ANOTHER AGGRESSIVE POLAR TROUGH ATTEMPTS
TO DIG TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY.
THESE LOWER UPPER HEIGHTS COULD STEER ANOTHER ANOMALOUS FRONT
TOWARD HAWAII AND INCREASE MOISTURE CONTENT AGAIN. OVERALL WPC
FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WENT A BIT
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN AND A COMPROMISE OF THE DATA A WEEK OUT.

MUSHER

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.