Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 161210
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
710 AM EST MON JAN 16 2017

VALID 00Z TUE JAN 17 2017 - 00Z TUE JAN 24 2017

ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AND SHOW
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN FOR
HAWAI`I WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADES AS SURFACE PRESSURES (AND THE
GRADIENT ITSELF) INCREASE TO THE NORTH. BY THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES
INDICATE TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WHICH MAY CLOSE
OFF JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS BY MONDAY AND SUPPORT A SURFACE
BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE FEATURE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
(WHICH SHOULD INCREASE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY), BUT ALL SUPPORT A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASED TRADES FROM THE NNE AND
NE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH A 1032-1037MB HIGH NEAR 33N/165W ON
SUNDAY MOVING EAST. THIS MAY RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
THE ISLANDS. PREFER A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF FOR NOW AS THEY HANDLE THE DIGGING TROUGH AND POTENTIAL
UPPER LOW COMPARABLY FOR THIS LEAD TIME.

FRACASSO

$$





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