Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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697
FXHW01 KWNH 231226
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
826 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

VALID 00Z TUE OCT 24 2017 - 00Z TUE OCT 31 2017

...STRONG COLD FRONT WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...

THE WELL-ADVERTISED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
HAWAI`IAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO OVER 2 INCHES (+2 TO +5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS) AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A DEEP TROPICAL CONNECTION TO
THE ITCZ. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD 2-4" OF RAIN CENTERED
OVER MOLOKAI/MAUI/LANAI`I WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF 6-10" WITH A
SECONDARY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY TO THE EAST, COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR ON
BREEZY NW TO N FLOW WILL INFILTRATE THE STATE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE NE AND EVENTUALLY ENE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH UPPER RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. BY SUN/MON,
ANOTHER FRONT (MUCH WEAKER) WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW.


FRACASSO


$$





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