Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 291230
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
829 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 00Z MON MAR 30 2015 - 00Z MON APR 06 2015

THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TRADES UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WILL ONLY
SUPPORT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE NORTH OF THE STATE TODAY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE
RIDGE TO ALLOW SOME GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN. THIS LEADS INTO
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE ENERGY AND HEIGHT FALLS WORKING
INTO THE STATE TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO FUEL
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER POTENTIAL. LESS CERTAIN SPECIFICS WITH
ADDITIONAL SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WNW THURSDAY/FRIDAY MAY EASE
TRADES AND REFRESH LOCAL SHOWERS. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO, AT LEAST AT
MID-LARGER SPATIAL SCALES. STILL PREFER A GUIDANCE COMPOSITE GIVEN
MODEST FORECAST SPREAD, BUT WITH LATER WEEK ONWARD
TIMING/AMPLITUDE ISSUES INHERENT WITH SMALLER SCALE SYSTEMS.

SCHICHTEL


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