Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 231205
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 00Z SUN MAY 24 2015 - 00Z SUN MAY 31 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH/EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
SHOULD QUICKLY RELOAD BEFORE BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY UPSTREAM
PACIFIC FLOW.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY EXTENDS A
WEAKENING FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE BIG ISLAND AND VICINITY.
 EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR LIKELY YIELDING A DECREASE IN
RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS GENERALLY FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD LOCALES.
WINDS SHOULD TREND LIGHTER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TRAILING HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS, ALLOWING FOR POTENTIALLY GREATER INFLUENCE FROM
LAND/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.  BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE
SURFACE EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL TRADE
FLOW OF LIGHT TO MODERATE STRENGTH.  DURING THAT TIME THERE IS
NOTICEABLY LESS AGREEMENT IN EXACT DETAILS OF FLOW ALOFT AND THE
EXTENT/DURATION OF A POSSIBLE INCREASE OF DEEP MOISTURE.  00Z/06Z
GFS RUNS LEAN TO THE LOWER SIDE OF THE SPREAD WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE BY NEXT SAT SO AT THE VERY LEAST WOULD
LEAN AWAY FROM THOSE SOLUTIONS ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RAUSCH

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