Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 311233
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
833 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

VALID 00Z THU SEP 01 2016 - 00Z THU SEP 08 2016

...A WEAKENING HURRICANE MADELINE STILL A THREAT TO CLIP THE BIG
ISLAND TONIGHT...

...MAJOR HURRICANE LESTER MAY IMPACT THE HAWAI`IAN ISLANDS BY THIS
WEEKEND...


A QUICK LOOK AT THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED
TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES GENERALLY MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE
HAWAI`IAN ISLAND CHAIN. THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR WESTWARD PROPAGATING FEATURES GIVEN THE BUILDING
HEIGHTS OVER THE MID-LATITUDES. FIRST, HURRICANE MADELINE WHICH
HAS WEAKENED QUITE A BIT SINCE YESTERDAY SINCE REMAINS A THREAT TO
AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GIVEN A
TRACK SOUTH OF THE ISLAND, THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STORM SURGE
WOULD IMPACT THIS REGION. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY,
PARTICULARLY IN REGIONS OF UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL, PLEASE VISIT THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND
LOCAL HAWAI`IAN FORECAST OFFICE WEBSITES.

AMONG THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES, HURRICANE LESTER DEFINITELY LOOKS
MORE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY GIVEN A PRONOUNCED EYE
STRUCTURE. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY
LIFTING A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD COME FRIDAY WITH A RATHER
EXPANSIVE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT IN
TIME, THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS ENVELOPE ENCOMPASSES THE BIG ISLAND
BUT THE OTHER EXTREME TAKES IT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE ATCF
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SPREAD WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS
GENERALLY WITHIN THE CENTER. REGARDLESS, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS,
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE VISIT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE.


RUBIN-OSTER

$$




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