Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 191104
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
703 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VALID 00Z WED AUG 20 2014 - 00Z WED AUG 27 2014


BOTH THE 00Z/19 ECMWF AND THE 06Z/19 GFS INDICATE THAT A PATCH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PASS FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY, ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
MUCH OF THE STATE. THEREAFTER, DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE LOOKS HARDER TO
COME BY, WITH THE SUGGESTION OF ANOTHER PATCH AFFECTING HAWAI`I
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH THESE
ENHANCED-MOISTURE EPISODES, SEVEN-DAY QPF FROM EVEN THE MORE
HIGHLY RESOLVED ECMWF LOOKS LACKLUSTER--WITH MOST AREAS NETTING
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH, SAVE THE HIGH TERRAIN ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE TRADES ALSO APPEAR MODEST--MOSTLY
RANGING FROM 15-20 KNOTS, WITH THE NORMALLY HIGHER FUNNEL EFFECTS
IN THE CHANNELS.


CISCO

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