Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS21 KWNC 062002
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JULY 06 2015

SYNOPSIS: A FRONT LOCATED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IS PREDICTED TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR WET WEATHER DURING THE BEGINNING OF THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE AND HOT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE MOST OF THE
WEST REMAINS DRY.

HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO, THU-SAT, JUL 9-10.

ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK FOR PARTS OF MAINLAND ALASKA, THU-MON, JUL 9-20.

EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, SAT-MON, JUL 11-13.

SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS, TUE-THU, JUL 14-16.

ONGOING OR LIKELY FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA,
AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR THURSDAY JULY 09 - MONDAY JULY 13: THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST, WITH A STRONG SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE.  IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH, STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF WILDFIRES, IN PARTS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA, SOUTHWESTERN UTAH, AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA.  HOWEVER,
NO HAZARD IS PLACED ON THE MAP AT THIS TIME, DUE TO ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
PRECLUDING THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FROM ISSUING AN AREA ON THEIR
CATEGORICAL FORECAST.



UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE, EXCESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA AS DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH 110
DEGREES, WHICH WOULD PROMPT HEAT THREATS TO BE ISSUED FROM LOCAL NWS OFFICES.



IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LOWER 48, SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST TO BRING A
PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.  WITH
MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT,
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO, WITH TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES
POSSIBLE.  OTHER PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THIS MEAN FLOW
COULD CAUSE HEAVY RAIN IN OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, MOST NOTABLE THE OHIO
VALLEY.  HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THESE AREAS ARE PREDICTED TO BE VERY SMALL IN
NATURE, AND NO LARGE SCALE HAZARD IS DENOTED ON THE MAP.  ANY HEAVY RAIN THAT
DOES FALL IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL OF EXACERBATING
ONGOING FLOODING.



TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THIS PERIOD, THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THE
NORTHERN STREAM IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS.  WHILE A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA MIGHT UNDERCUT THE RIDGE,
REDUCING TEMPERATURES, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS.  THIS MORNING`S
OPERATIONAL GFS, FOR EXAMPLE, HAD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS.  THIS PATTERN ALSO FAVORS THE GENERATION OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.  THESE
SYSTEMS COULD EASILY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THE EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY SYSTEMS IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD
TIME.



A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS,
BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE ALASKAN MAINLAND.  THIS WOULD MEAN ANY MOISTURE
WOULD FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE, KEEPING THE INTERIOR WARM AND
DRY.  THUS, A CONTINUED ENHANCED RISK OF WILDFIRES REMAINS FOR THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK PERIOD.

FOR TUESDAY JULY 14 - MONDAY JULY 20: THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE
PLAINS BRINGS A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO EASTERN
MONTANA AND THE ROCKIES FROM THE 14TH TO THE 16TH.  THE GENERAL PREDICTED
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE REST OF THIS PERIOD KEEPS THE STORM TRACK ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER, TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THIS WOULD FAVOR ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND BELOW-MEDIAN FOR THE SOUTHERN
STATES.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, VALID ON JUNE 30, INDICATES AN INCREASE
(FROM 14.31 TO 15.54) IN THE PERCENTAGE OF THE CONUS IN SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT (D2-D4). DROUGHT INTENSIFICATION (IMPROVEMENT) WAS OBSERVED OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST (MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST).



FORECASTER: KENNETH PELMAN

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