Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 190600
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
100 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...VALID 06Z FRI DEC 19 2014 - 12Z SAT DEC 20 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...ERN TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

EXPECT AN AREA OF RAIN AND ELEVATED TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
FRI MRNG ACRS ERN TX AND SRN LA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SFC WAVE DVLPG
ALONG WARM FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEX AS S/WV ENERGY
KICKS EWD FROM THE SRN HI PLAINS.   MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE WARM FRONT FROM BARELY GETTING MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE IMMEDIATE UPR TX/SRN LA COAST AS S/WV GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TN VALLEY BY SAT MRNG.  SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS FCST TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO PARTS OF ERN TX AND THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND UA DATA SUGGESTS SOME POTNL FOR TRAINING OF
CELLS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ...MAINLY
THRU THE EARLY FRIDAY OVERNIGHT PD.  LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THIS WAS GENLY ACCEPTED GIVEN WEAK
INLAND INSTABILITY AND POSITION OF THE UPR JET.  IN
ADDITION...MOST OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER
THAN GLOBAL RUNS ACRS THIS AREA...AND THE HIER AMOUNTS GENLY AGREE
WITH GFS REFORECAST AMOUNTS ACRS THIS AREA.  AS A RESULT...GENLY
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF HI RES GUIDANCE WITH WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2+
AMOUNTS FROM THE UPR TX COAST EWD INTO SRN MS.  FFG VALUES ACRS
THIS AREA ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND THUS ANY RUNOFF CONCERNS SHOULD
BE RATHER ISOLD.

SULLIVAN
$$




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