Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 311736
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1235 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 01/0000 UTC THRU FEB 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST/PA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST, NEARLY CLOSING
OFF AT 500 HPA.  THE SYSTEM LURES GULF MOISTURE ORIGINALLY SENT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DROPPING DOWN THE
WEST COAST OF MEXICO, WHICH CONTINUES TO STREAM IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC.  INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX AND THE LOWER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY, ENOUGH SO FOR AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO BREAK OUT.  THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE AGREEABLE CONCERNING THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AND NEAR THE ASSOCIATED
CYCLONE`S WARM FRONT.  WHILE THE FORECAST MUCAPES ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF COAST ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1000 J/KG AND LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW OF 35+ KTS COINCIDES WITH THE INSTABILITY, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BARELY BREACH 1.25" IN THE LATEST GFS RUN, IMPLYING
THAT ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND BE
DUE TO CELL TRAINING, POSSIBLY WITHIN A REGION ENCOMPASSING
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX, LA, AND WESTERN MS LATE SUNDAY --
INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.  BELIEVE
THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR ANY AREAS WITHIN OUR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRODUCT COVERING THIS PERIOD.  OVERALL, THE QPF
WITH THIS SYSTEM RESEMBLES THE 12Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS-CORRECTED
ENSEMBLE QPF.

BACK IN THE COLD SECTOR, LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING/ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND TO ITS NORTHWEST WITHIN A
TROWAL/COMMA HEAD FEATURE SHOULD FOCUS DECENT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS, A BIT MORE THAN THEIR RECENT CLIPPER PASSAGES, WITH MUCH
OF IT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  COMPROMISED AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC
AND MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE, WHICH LED TO A MAXIMUM ACROSS NORTHERN
IL OF OVER 1.25".  COORDINATION WITH THE FSD/SIOUX FALLS SD OFFICE
LED TO AN INCREASE IN AMOUNTS NEAR THE EASTERN SD/NE BORDER, WHICH
COINCIDED BEST WITH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ARW/NMM/NAM CONEST/SPC
WRF/WRF NSSL/CANADIAN REGIONAL GUIDANCE.  SEE THE HEAVY SNOW/ICING
DISCUSSION AND WINTER WEATHER PROBABILITIES ONLINE FOR MORE
INFORMATION REGARDING FREEZING RAIN AND SNOWFALL EXPECTED.


NORTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~
A FRONTAL ZONE WITH ASSOCIATED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
URGED INLAND BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT CAUSES A SURGE OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  INCREASED AMOUNTS FROM 12Z WPC
QPF CONTINUITY IN THIS REGION TOWARDS THE 00Z GEFS- AND
CLIMATOLOGY-BASED REFORECAST.  THIS SOLUTION RESEMBLES A
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/09Z SREF MEAN/12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL QPF
GUIDANCE.


ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 472619 487629 491630 493634 497638 500643 504652 507656
      509663 510670 509674 507679 503681 487676 469677 463678
      459677 450679 447678 444679 438680 434681 429680 425679
      422675 420671 418666 416653 417648 420644 423641 426640
      429637 430634
 0.01 536218 537210 537204 536197 534192 530182 524171 518163
      514159 511156 497143 492136 490131 488126 485102 483089
      483085 482082 482078 480054 478027 472003 464979 457959
      454950 454934 450913 446887 449875 449870 447867 437811
      438804 439801 444792 450782 451775 451770 452764 451758
      450750 448746 434739 429746 426755 423756 420753 415748
      407744 403741 400739 397744 394747 390750 389755 386765
      383776 382782 379785 373792 367799 360805 344816 317833
      310838 305841 302844 287857 281863 273870 270879 270890
      267894 267899 273904 275909 275915 275925 279945 281951
      279956 273962 259973 255977 253982 250992 242012 239020
      243026 245030 242033 237033 234035 229044 227048 228053
      231063 235068 246080 251086 258093 268097 272100 277101
      294111 302117 305119 310121 328127 338131 344132 348132
      349128 349124 355124 364124 367122 363120 354116 350112
      349107 347102 346097 343086 341082 339079 336078 327079
      326073 326068 324065 326062 332062 334060 334056 330053
      327055 323056 320052 314044 310036 307032 309028 318018
      320014 326012 330014 337015 348016 354016 359020 366039
      368044 369048 366049 358053 357058 361058 363060 364063
      359064 357067 360069 368067 371073 374082 378085 381085
      386085 401077 403078 406075 409077 412074 416071 420077
      423087 428095 430100 430103 428106 424105 423108 428114
      429119 433121 436119 439117 442119 444122 442127 437136
      437144 438148 442156
 0.01 442156 445164 447175 439187 438194 439198 440202 444203
      448199 453193 464182 466181 471181 475187 477192 475195
      469199 457206 432217 418232 412238 417242 420249 421254
      420257 418263 419268 421272 424273 427274 431273 433272
      434276 438285 442291 459297 462298 464297 467298 475301
      489302 499301 504301 507304 523264 523262 524259 524257
      525255 525254 526252 526249 527247 528245 529242 529240
      529237 531235 532232 532230 533228 534228 534225 535223
      535220 536218
 0.01 481879 482875 481870 479867 473855 469855 466858 465865
      463868 461869 460875 459881 461887 461896 462903 463910
      465915 469918 472907 474900 475892 477887 480882 481879
 0.01 461124 460122 458121 456121 455122 455123 453122 451124
      452127 454127 456127 458127 459126 459125 461124
 0.01 457837 457835 455830 455828 453823 453820 451818 447819
      447821 448824 450828 451831 452833 454836 456838 457837
 0.01 437050 438045 435043 431042 426039 422035 419032 416027
      412024 410022 407022 397023 393027 391030 391034 392038
      394035 398034 401044 402048 405049 411049 413047 416047
      420050 424053 429051 434051 437050
 0.01 319082 319075 318069 315060 310054 308051 303049 296044
      287043 285038 284033 284028 283024 277023 273024 266027
      261035 258037 257043 256049 258054 264059 278069 284074
      290079 294083 300083 303082 308083 315084 319082
 0.01 301013 301011 302008 302006 300004 299006 299008 299010
      299012 300014 301013
 0.25 513279 515268 517263 517257 515250 512244 510237 507231
      502219 496213 491210 487207 481206 475208 470211 461215
      455218 453219 454223 457225 460226 465225 468227 468230
      464234 457233 452234 446237 444239 447242 456242 466243
      477249 485251 488253 490256 494269 495276 499283 503288
      508292 512285 513279
 0.25 510268 510260 508256 503246 498242 496238 490229 486225
      481223 478220 475221 472223 471228 473229 478231 485239
      493247 500255 505265 507270 510268
 0.25 442964 442945 440923 437904 435883 433870 432860 428838
      425817 422801 417794 416793 411794 399803 394808 391815
      387829 385834 383836 376840 373842 368843 359845 355844
      352842 350840 348840 345841 341842 332843 323844 316847
      309852 304857 297866 295873 298875 301877 331887 329891
      324896 311901 304905 301912 298921 297929 295945 295955
      296966 297969 299971 306967 308965 311964 314972 315980
      319985 326983 333980 400980 407982 414987 424997 431000
      434999 436997 439989 441981 442964
 0.50 503275 502273 502272 501274 502277 503275
 0.50 479241 479238 479237 478236 477235 476233 474234 473234
      472236 473239 474239 475240 476242 478242 479241
 0.50 483212 482210 481210 479210 480213 480214 481214 482213
      483212
 0.50 433964 434952 434940 433919 431896 429878 423836 422829
      419821 417818 413819 408822 403827 399832 395840 392847
      391855 389862 388870 386872 382874 373862 367860 360861
      354865 350871 346884 339897 336903 331909 325911 316913
      311915 308920 305928 303937 302946 303950 306949 313941
      321930 326924 332921 337925 339929 338934 334947 327960
      326963 328966 333966 336964 342960 346955 356948 361944
      364942 365938 366934 370933 374933 377936 378939 376944
      372949 368954 364960 368963 375964 391962 399963 407966
      413968 419971 423974 425976 429977 432969 433964
 0.50 326855 324851 318852 315854 311856 308859 305863 307867
      312868 317866 320864 323862 326857 326855
 1.00 421917 422898 420879 419869 418863 417858 415857 410859
      404871 402878 401885 400892 400901 401910 403917 406922
      409926 418933 420933 421928 420919 421917
$$





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