Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 242132
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
431 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 25/0000 UTC THRU JAN 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...CENTRAL U.S...

IT REMAINS THE CASE THAT THE LAST IN WHAT HAS BEEN A SERIES OF
PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE A HEFTY SWATH OF SNOW IN THE PLAINS
AND MIDWEST AS CYCLOGENESIS EVOLVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE AREA SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY-SLOTTED...WHILE THE
DEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION OCCURS FARTHER
NORTH...HEAVIEST STRADDLING THE EASTERN SD/NE BORDER...THE MN/IA
BORDER...AND INTO SOUTHERN WI.

IN SUCH CIRCUMSTANCES WITH A WELL DEFINED...MEDIUM WAVELENGTH
SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE...OUR IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE USUALLY DOES WELL...WITH A
CAVEAT. DESPITE THE SOLID MODEL CONSENSUS...ONE ELEMENT THAT CAN
CERTAINLY DISRUPT WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE HIGHLY PREDICTABLE
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WOULD BE WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION
(ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE MAX TOTALS). AS THE TROWAL
CONTINUES TO ELONGATE WESTWARD...THE MODELS DEPICT A RELATIVELY
NARROW STRIPE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES (BETWEEN 7-8 C/KM) AND
NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500 MB. THIS IS ALSO
NOTED QUITE WELL ON E-W CROSS SECTIONS...WITH AN ELEVATED POOL OF
LOWER THETA-E BETWEEN 700-500 AND CORRESPONDING NEGATIVE EPV LAPSE
RATES...MOST PRONOUNCED BETWEEN 06-18Z WED ACROSS NORTHERN IA ENE
INTO SOUTHERN MN. WPC TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE AXIS
OF 0.50-1.0+ INCH AMOUNTS...ALIGNING CLOSER TO THE 850/700 MB LOW
TRACKS AND CLOSER TO THE APEX OF THE DEEPER-LAYER DRY SLOT WHERE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED PCPN AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED.

BECAUSE OF THE PLAUSIBILITY OF MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT...WPC LEANED
QUITE A BIT ON SOME OF THE HIGH-RES CAMS DURING DAY 1...THE 12Z
NSSL-WRF PARTICULARLY...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT OF THE
MAX PCPN AXIS (AGAIN WHICH ENDED UP BEING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
COMPARED TO CONTINUITY OR PREVIOUS FORECAST). OF AN EQUALLY (IF
NOT MORE) CHALLENGING CONCERN WILL BE THE THERMAL STRATIFICATION
AND THUS PCPN TYPE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK... ESPECIALLY IF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MATERIALIZE. PLEASE REFER TO THE WPC HEAVY
SNOWFALL DISCUSSION...QPFHSD... FOR DETAILS ON THE WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS.


...NORTHEAST...

THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND WED. DEEP-LAYER DYNAMICAL
FORCING WILL REMAIN ROBUST...AS THE STRENGTHENING ALONG-STREAM
AGEOS DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE NEGATIVE TILT IS ENHANCED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND (ME) WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET STREAK TO THE NORTH. MOREOVER...THE MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE...AS THE AXIS OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES BETWEEN +4 AND +5 NUDGE INTO ME FROM THE
GULF STREAM. THE DYNAMICAL AND THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILES WOULD
CERTAINLY SUPPORT  ADDITIONAL MOD-HEAVY LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND (ME ESPECIALLY)...BACKED BY A GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS OF 0.50-1.5" AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS. WPC AGAIN
UTILIZED COMPONENTS OF BOTH THE GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IN
COMPOSING THE QPF...ALONG WITH CONTINUITY (PREVIOUS FCST)...WHICH
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT BOOST IN AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WPC
QPF.


DAYS 2 AND 3...


...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY EAST TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
NORTHEAST U.S....

AS A CLOSED LOW-MID LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON DAY 2...DEEP LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE INCREASING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL CYCLONE TRACK ACROSS MI AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ALONG A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW.

ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES...STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS FIRST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS .  CROSS LAKE FLOW AND LEE SHORE CONVERGENCE
AND ASCENT RESULTS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.P. OF
MI INTO LEE SHORE AREAS IN LOWER MI...INCLUDING THE TERRAIN OF
NORTHWEST LOWER MI.  THE LAKE EFFECT THEN PICKS UP IN THE LOWER
LAKES THU EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LAKE MOISTURE LIFTED IN
UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  HERE A BLEND OF
THE HIGHER RES NAM QPF WAS USED.

SEE THE WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS AND DISCUSSION FOR POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN...

LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS OF THE PAC
NORTHWEST WHEN THE DAY 2 FORECAST BEGINS AT 00Z JAN 26 AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN MAKES ITS
WAY EAST/SOUTHEAST.  AS THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND THE SHORTWAVE
LOSES ANY CONNECTION TO MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DRY UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAY 3 GENERALLY BEING DRY.


...LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...

THE MODELS FORECAST A COLD FRONT TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY DAY 2 INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON DAY 3. A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK
FROM PRIOR FORECASTS. TENDED TO GIVE THE LATEST AVAILABLE
GFS/ECMWF THE MOST WEIGHT WITH RESPECT TO QPF HERE.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

HURLEY/BANN

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 496610 497612 533706 538734 540747 541761 539775 537785
      535792 533795 530799 525800 516801 513799 510799 505798
      502794 494790 490790 488793 483794 480792 476792 474790
      471787 467787 459782 453777 450776 450784 452789 454796
      455801 456807 461816 464825 466832 469837 473847 473852
      473856 473869 473876 472881 471888 470893 467904 465915
      462925 452969 451974 452981 452996 452004 450007 447016
      440036 438041 438047 437053 439057 440062 443066 447073
      449078 447079 443079 437079 428077 425075 423070 416050
      413040 410036 410032 407008 405983 403977 399969 396961
      396948 396940 398934 401924 407906 407892 408887 411882
      414879 415873 416862 415855 412854 410856 404861 379880
      351899 344905 337910 325922 315934 312937 312940 314940
      322935 325934 329936 328940 325943 315952 303965 296970
      291968 290964 288963 285964 282966 275970 270970 271967
      272964 276960 283942 286935 291927 299914 307901 318887
      323881 329874 340861 345854 350848 365839 371832 377824
      381818 384813 388812 381809 379807 379803 381798 385792
      392787 400785 405785 405790 397804 401804 404808 411814
      412816 415816 419813 423811 426807 429786 431781 432777
      431774 429772 426772 421773 420771 422768 427767 430764
      434761 437760 445763 452764 456764 460761 463758 465754
      464750 462746 457742 453744 447749 440755 438755 436751
      436747 436745 434745 429746 419748 406744 398741 392736
      386731 382727 378726 367728 362729 359727 356723 358717
      362713 363710 367708
 0.01 367708 377703 380702 384699 389697 394698 398702 404702
      411701 415696 416691 416687 414684 410681 405677 403673
      402669 403666 406660 407655 412651 423644 428641 433638
      444629
 0.01 509286 511277 510270 508256 505242 501233 499227 498220
      494215 491209 487207 482208 474211 464213 455213 445216
      441218 440219 441222 459232 454234 449234 444235 446238
      447243 446247 442251 431253 411252 400253 391255 373262
      369265 366269 364277 367283 372284 377285 378291 380294
      386297 393299 397299 404300 424300 429300 435301 448306
      452306 456309 468314 478317 485318 489318 493317 497313
      502304 504298 506294 509286
 0.01 494173 491168 484165 487159 486151 488149 491147 493145
      492142 489134 484132 473125 468122 461124 457126 454127
      453132 462138 465138 467141 462144 456146 455149 452151
      444148 442147 440148 438149 439152 441156 442157 446162
      449165 451165 455161 453169 451179 448182 446182 443183
      442186 447191 452194 456188 461184 465179 464170 469171
      470173 476173 482176 490178 494173
 0.01 496038 496029 494023 491019 488012 484000 482994 484987
      485978 487972 491959 494945 496939 494934 492931 489931
      485934 479944 474956 472962 471969 470976 469983 468001
      467010 466018 466026 467033 469038 473042 479043 482043
      483047 483055 486060 488057 491051 496038
 0.01 455115 457105 455098 452093 447089 440088 437089 435092
      426091 428097 427101 425103 420106 416111 412105 410101
      410098 408096 407097 404102 398106 394110 393113 390114
      385117 382122 386125 392124 395122 397124 400124 398121
      401121 405123 409123 416125 418132 418141 415149 415153
      417155 420154 422148 424138 430124 432121 435123 439124
      443120 445116 448116 453117 455115
 0.01 423084 423076 420071 417064 414061 411061 407058 406058
      404053 400054 395056 391061 385063 380069 376068 375066
      371061 364061 360063 358065 359067 356071 352076 347078
      344083 347084 348088 349092 351095 354096 366092 369089
      374093 384083 385079 386077 388079 392082 402088 403088
      405084 409082 415092 423084
 0.01 418795 418792 416790 415788 414788 412788 410789 412791
      414793 416793 418795 418795
 0.01 410152 410150 408149 406151 404153 404156 406154 408152
      410152 410152
 0.01 394052 392048 389045 382037 377035 371033 364027 362026
      360031 362036 365041 368044 370046 369049 360054 357057
      359057 370055 381055 392054 394052
 0.01 346207 347203 346198 347194 345191 340185 331183 328184
      327187 326198 326205 329214 331219 336221 339219 343213
      346207
 0.01 351130 350126 352122 351117 349114 346110 343107 340107
      340111 343116 347117 349118 350121 348125 349130 351130
 0.01 337170 336166 332163 329161 324159 318159 315159 311160
      309166 313169 317171 322172 325169 328167 334168 337170
      337170
 0.01 336952 336946 331947 328949 325952 321955 318958 316962
      321964 325962 329960 332957 335954 336952
 0.25 522710 521702 520693 517680 510655 506643 502632 497625
      490620 486620 480622 470627 454637 433645 424648 421651
      418656 419661 421666 426675 431684 432689 433694 430705
      427715 423723 420726 414727 412729 412732 417733 427732
      437729 440726 444724 453724 463725 469729 476735 480743
      484755 486759 490760 493757 496753 502746 507744 512743
      516741 519739 522733 522728 522710
 0.25 447930 448910 447892 447882 446872 444865 441859 436857
      431862 424870 422877 421884 418898 415913 413928 411945
      412952 414959 416966 416976 418992 419999 422005 425009
      429010 432009 436005 439999 440992 442985 443966 445949
      447930
 0.50 514717 512697 508680 508670 506657 502642 498636 494630
      488628 482628 474630 466634 461637 455642 447644 440645
      426650 424653 422658 424663 426666 430672 434679 436687
      439696 446710 451713 458715 471718 476721 480726 488737
      490740 492741 498736 505734 512732 514729 514723 514717
 0.50 442937 442924 442911 440900 438890 437885 433883 430882
      427885 421902 419913 419924 417945 418951 420956 423964
      424987 426992 428995 431993 434990 436979 438969 441947
      442937
 1.00 493643 491637 488634 484633 478633 472636 468639 459645
      449651 440649 435652 434656 436659 438664 439673 441681
      443688 446691 450692 467702 473708 482713 489716 493715
      494707 494700 496693 496687 495681 492675 488670 488665
      488657 493643
 1.00 435940 436933 436926 434921 431916 429916 428921 427928
      428933 429940 430945 432947 434942 435940
 1.50 487642 485639 482639 476641 470647 463651 459652 455655
      455659 457664 461669 467669 472665 476658 482652 486645
      487642
 1.50 492690 491687 487688 484689 483690 480693 478695 477699
      479702 481703 484703 486702 487699 488696 491693 492690

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 512287 516264 516257 514250 511244 509240 506239 500238
      494238 483240 479241 475240 478238 480236 479233 473227
      472213 460215 456218 449217 445220 444223 448225 453225
      460226 467237 473239 476242 474244 469248 468252 469255
      472260 478263 477268 475270 474276 474281 481291 487294
      494295 499293 501292 504292 509290 512287
 0.01 536864 536853 534848 528830 526820 522810 519803 516795
      515793 514788 511781 508773 506763 505759 503755 503749
      498732 488704 480686 476678 474674 473670 470662 468657
      466655 456660 453661 451659 448660 444664 438668 391695
      360726 352720 348720 345719 337720 333721 331723 327725
      324727 320731 316739 310749 304763 300772 298779 296784
      293796 291803 290812 290821 291826 293830 294834 293837
      289842 283852 281857 282862 282867 279873 275877 268886
      262894 260911 262913 267913 270916 271919 275926 275929
      278928 317901 335887 346876 353873 358869 368863 378856
      381853 385854 389858 396867 396872 398874 400878 402882
      400886 397892 392899 393902 396906 397914 399923 401930
      405936 410947 420952 431947 435947 437945 438940 442933
      444925 446920 448916 450909 453906 457906 460916 461918
      465918 470915 474915 475917 479919 480922 475927 474932
      476938 481943 485947 487952 499958 503958 506960 514960
      522947 526934 529914 529905 534901 534891 535883 535870
      536864
 0.01 489139 488136 485133 478128 467137 458139 456141 453142
      453146 451151 449155 449160 446171 442178 439189 441195
      446197 450196 453194 457195 463191 465187 466182 468178
      469170 472167 476167 481163 482153 481148 482143 485140
      489140 489139
 0.01 487826 485821 483816 481812 479807 475803 473798 471798
      472805 474810 476815 478817 480822 484826 487826
 0.01 459257 456251 446247 437245 431245 417238 411235 407233
      404233 401235 396236 393236 389233 386231 383229 374227
      367226 359228 350239 344244 342249 343253 346261 349262
      352261 362249 364247 368247 371248 371250 368253 358264
      356267 355271 357278 361279 365278 373276 379273 384272
      392271 401271 410273 417273 432271 443267 453263 456261
      459257
 0.01 454112 454107 452104 453098 445096 438097 430097 427103
      419106 416106 414108 401111 398113 402114 404116 407116
      410118 414123 417131 422137 426137 428134 432126 436120
      440120 442118 445116 447114 448116 452115 454112
 0.01 436223 437216 436211 427208 423198 422195 418195 413195
      409196 404195 400197 400201 402205 407211 413212 417215
      422222 425225 429226 434225 436223
 0.01 446048 447046 447043 446041 445040 443038 441038 440036
      438035 438038 436040 436042 437045 438045 439048 441048
      443048 444049 446049 446048
 0.01 430190 430188 430187 429185 427184 425186 426189 428192
      430190 430190
 0.01 430168 430160 428153 428149 426147 419145 414143 411141
      407142 405144 406149 407152 407156 410160 414162 415165
      420167 424168 425170 430168
 0.01 405191 404188 404184 403181 403179 401176 398175 394175
      394177 394179 395182 397185 398187 401190 403191 405191
 0.01 416071 416061 412059 409058 406056 402055 399055 396057
      391063 387070 383074 386079 391081 393084 398085 401082
      404081 409080 411078 415071 416071
 0.01 277828 276823 274821 268817 263818 262821 260825 261829
      261839 261848 263855 266856 268853 271847 273839 276832
      277828
 0.25 490260 490258 490257 488257 488260 489260 490260
 0.25 466720 466717 466714 465713 463715 462717 461718 460719
      460721 461723 461726 462728 463728 464728 464725 465724
      465722 466720 466720
 0.25 447753 448746 444744 439743 434744 429747 428752 429759
      431766 433769 438769 441765 443761 446756 447753
 0.25 453852 454847 453844 451842 447843 446845 444848 443851
      442853 441856 440861 441864 445864 448863 450860 451858
      452855 453852
 0.25 436866 435863 433861 429861 426860 424860 420860 419862
      418865 419868 422869 424870 428870 431870 435868 436866
 0.25 426789 426786 424785 421787 417791 414795 413800 413805
      414809 417811 419810 422806 424802 425798 426791 426789
 0.25 403795 401791 400790 395792 389795 384799 381803 379805
      378809 378812 379816 383816 388813 392808 396804 400800
      403795
 0.25 355839 356835 353833 348835 343840 341845 333853 326863
      320872 317877 316881 318884 327877 335869 342862 351853
      355841 355839
 0.25 334756 333753 329754 327755 326758 324760 323763 321766
      322768 325768 327766 329764 331761 333759 334756
 0.25 332850 330847 327846 323847 318849 314854 311858 308864
      306869 307873 308874 313871 317866 321862 324859 328855
      332850

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 428634 440645 445654 446661 445666 442675 441679 438683
      434687 430688 426686 425681 423675 420672 416671 412672
      405679 398684 393686 390688 385690 381693 379691 380688
      385682 395667 401660 406653 417639 420637
 0.01 462329 469328 475327 481324 486321 493319 497315 502309
      507303 511295 514285 517276 520269 524260 530240 529237
      526233 520230 512227 505224 502215 498208 495207 492207
      489210 488213 488220 489224 490232 488235 484235 480240
      473254 470266 465271 460277 457284 455288 454294 452302
      451315 452323 453325
 0.01 503775 502759 501749 499743 498737 496732 495727 493723
      485709 481703 478698 478694 479687 478680 477671 474669
      471666 468664 464665 462668 464676 464680 463685 456690
      456696 454700 452704 446706 439714 434720 427725 424731
      422740 419743 414745 411748 410754 414761 415765 413769
      409771 405776 396780 376805 371812 366815 364819 360826
      358830 358835 361839 365839 368840 372838 375833 376828
      376823 390847 397847 402841 407834 413828 416832 418834
      419837 419841 418844 416850 414861 415868 417871 420873
      425873 428871 433870 439867 444865 447863 450862 453857
      457852 459853 460857 462867 463872 462877 462883 461886
      461899 461906 462911 465913 469912 474904 474894 476889
      477885 482882 490881 490875 488871 482866 480862 479856
      478845 478840 475834 470823 466813 468811 472811 475813
      480812 485811 488808 492805 497797 500791 501785 503775
 0.01 454755 452751 450753 448758 444764 441769 437775 434780
      433783 435787 440784 443778 446773 450768 451762 454755
 0.01 450838 448833 443832 440830 436828 432826 429826 430833
      431838 433842 437844 441846 443848 446846 448843 450838
 0.01 322747 320742 315740 309740 306743 296756 285772 281779
      277788 276789 276785 277780 282772 289756 294746 296743
      294737 291736 288739 282746 275753 272755 270760 256767
      253778 250787 243803 242808 242814 242818 241822 240826
      241832 247831 249829 254818 259811 264804 269803 272804
      275800 275794 277800 279804 282807 284806 290799 296789
      301782 311767 317757 320752 322747
 0.25 516262 517256 517252 515247 510243 504240 499242 495245
      486248 482256 480264 482281 480291 481296 483300 486302
      490305 496306 501304 505300 507294 510286 512279 516262
 0.25 469704 467699 463698 460700 457704 455707 453712 452716
      452721 457719 459716 461713 464709 468706 469704
 0.25 445747 444745 444744 442743 441743 439744 439746 438748
      438749 438751 437753 436756 437757 439756 440755 440753
      442752 443750 444749 445747 445747
 0.50 506292 508286 509280 509270 506261 502256 494254 488255
      486260 486266 486277 488285 491293 497298 501299 504297
      506292
 1.00 502288 503286 503283 503281 503280 503278 502276 500274
      499275 498276 498279 497281 498282 498284 499286 499287
      500288 502288 502288

$$





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