Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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TXUS20 KNES 310943
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
VIZ000-PRZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/31/16 0942Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0915Z  JS
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC
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EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER MESSAGE ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH TROPICAL
WAVE.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SINCE THE LAST MESSAGE, HAVE SEEN SOME OF
THE LEADING SHOWERS PASS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THOUGH
THEY HAVE BEEN RATHER SCATTERED AND QUICKLY MOVING SO FAR. THE CURRENT
IR SIGNATURE IS INDICATING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION IN AND NEAR THE LOWER
OR MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH IS PASSING CLOSE TO MARTINIQUE. AT THIS
TIME, NOW BEGINNING TO SEE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT IR ENHANCEMENT WITH
A PATCH OF STRONGER CONVECTION MOVING W OF SAINT THOMAS AND CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTION STILL PULSING AND
CYCLING EXCEPT FOR SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENCE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER,
STILL NO REAL USEFUL INFORMATION FROM ANY OF THE AUTOMATED SATELLITE
ESTIMATING TECHNIQUES OTHER THAN A FEW VERY SPOTTY AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE THE HYDROESTIMATOR IS INDICATING ROUGHLY 2.0"-3.0"
IN A 3-6 HOUR TIME FRAME.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0945-1545ZZ...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...GIVEN THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO, EXPECT
THESE ISLANDS TO REMAIN WITHIN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL GENERALLY
PROMOTE QUICK INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTIONS. HOWEVER, THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALSO PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR REPEAT CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY IF A MORE PRONOUNCED WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND FORMS NORTH OF
THE CIRCULATION. ALSO, AS STATED IN THE EARLIER MESSAGE, ANY TERRAIN
ALIGNED FAVORABLY TO THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE SUBJECT TO FURTHER LIFT
AND RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 1888 6738 1885 6477 1755 6478 1755 6743
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