Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 211815
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-NMZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/21/14 1815Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1745Z  JS
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LOCATION...W TEXAS/SE NEW MEXICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER SPENES MESSAGES AND MPD DISCUSSIONS FOR HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FOR PORTIONS
OF SE NM/W TX.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1800-0000Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...ANALYSIS AND ANIMATION OF THE CU FIELD IN VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE SE, E,  AND E-NE INTO
THE ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM SE NM INTO W TX WITH COLLOCATED REGION
OF OBJECTIVELY DERIVED SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION, VISIBLE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A SMALL POSSIBLY MCV CIRCULATION OVER
EDDY COUNTY OF SE NM DRIFTING TO THE NW WHICH ONLY ADDS FURTHER TO THE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA. DIFFLUENCE EXISTS AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH
CONVECTION APPEARING TO BE AIDED BY JET STREAK SPREADING ACROSS THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SW US PER WATER VAPOR ANIMATION WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE CONNECTION TO TS POLO OFF THE BAJA COAST. MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE OBVIOUSLY VERY SATURATED WITH EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES CONTINUING
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. NOW SEEING SOME INDICATION THAT THE CONFLUENT LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH SOME FURTHER BACK BUILDING TO
THE EAST IN W TX INTO THE INFLOW. OVERALL, BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A RATHER
HIGH THREAT FROM ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY FROM CHAVES/DE
BACA COUNTIES OF SE NM TO THE AREA BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND AND LIKELY
EXTENDING FARTHER TO THE EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TENDENCY FOR BACK
BUILDING OCCURS. OBSERVED RAIN RATES OF OVER 1"/HR TO AS HIGH AS 3"/HR
PER EARLIER WPC MPD INFO WITH VERY SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE CELLS/CLUSTERS
AS RAP FORECAST PROFILES ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
ALONG WITH DIRECTLY OPPOSING LOW LEVEL AND MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3433 10507 3370 10156 3266 10018 3154 10167 3140 10373
3353 10574
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