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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 191738
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO HESITATES BUT EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. POLO HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...
LATER TODAY. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




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