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000
FXAK69 PAFG 181148
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
348 AM AKDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA EXTENDING FROM
KODIAK TO NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND CONTINUES TO ROTATE EASTWARD
WITH AXIS OVER CENTRAL ALASKA SUNDAY EVENING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE LONG WAVE SEPARATES AND CONTINUES EAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHWARD
INTO THE ARCTIC AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA SUNDAY AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA MONDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL ALASKA INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE...VERY COLD AIR MASS FOR MIDDLE OF MAY ENTRENCHED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA WITH VERY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
OUT OF EASTERN ALASKA INTO THE YUKON AT THIS TIME. PAOR DROPPED
FROM THE LOW 60S YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SNOW
AND THE UPPER 20S THIS MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN
INTERIOR HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS WHILE LOW VIS AND SNOW
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S ARE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HOISTED FOR EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH REPORTS OF
NEARLY TWO FEET OF SNOW NEAR BLACK RAPIDS GLACIER IN EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE. OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF SNOW FELL AT VALLEY
LEVEL IN FAIRBANKS YESTERDAY WHILE REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FELL
IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500 FEET. EXPECT SIMILAR SNOW FALL ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TODAY WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS AND 1 TO 2
INCHES ABOVE 1500 FEET. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR
ZONES 220...221...222...223 AND ZONE 224 WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL TODAY...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET.

MODELS...ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAIN FEATURES IN THE SHORT AND MID
TERMS HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SPREAD EXISTS IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH REDUCES FORECASTE CONFIDENCE TO BELOW NORMAL.
GRADUAL WARMING INDICATED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BREAKUP IN PROGRESS ON THE UPPER YUKON RIVER AND WILL PROCEED
SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH UNSEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURES. MORE SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
WARM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA. FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE
JAM FLOODING FOR THE YUKON RIVER FOR CIRCLE CITY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ218-AKZ225-AKZ226.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ220.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC MAY 13