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000
FXAK69 PAFG 161149 AAA
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
349 AM AKDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
POSITION IN MOVING THE SHORT WAVE AROUND AND DOWN THE SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. CURRENTLY...EXTREMELY STRONG HIGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH AND EVEN STRENGTHEN A BIT AS WELL.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR RUBY AT 585
DM WITH EXTREMELY WARM AIR UNDER THE HIGH WITH THE COMPRESSION OF
THE AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HOT OVER ALL OF
NORTHERN ALASKA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS ON SUN. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RIDGE EAST OF THE ALCAN
BORDER THERE WILL BE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER LATE TONIGHT
AND MON BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUE.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER HIGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL VERY GRADUALLY
BEGINNING MON NIGHT...THIS DOES NOT TRANSLATE INTO COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERIOR THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEK...IF NOT
LONGER. THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE NORTHERN ALASKA COOLING DOWN A LITTLE
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR ON
MONDAY...BUT APPEARS TO BE CAPPED AT THIS POINT.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT PUT IN FORECASTS...THE
POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS DOES EXIST ON TUE.

NOT MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
THIS WEEK AFTER TODAY. PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WITH THE PASSING OF THE
SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE.



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES ARE SOARING AND RH VALUES ARE DRYING
OUT OVER ALL OF INTERIOR OF ALASKA. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE WELL
BELOW 30 PERCENT AND MANY AREAS NEAR 15 PERCENT THROUGH THIS WEEK.
FIRE CLEARLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN ZONE 152 WITH PLUME
TRAILING NORTHWARD WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...EXTREMELY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT OVER THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES THAT MAY
CAUSE RIVER TO RISE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.
&&

$$

CF JUN 13