Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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569 FXUS64 KAMA 290851 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 351 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Monday and Tuesday look to feature quasi-zonal flow aloft with slowly building heights aloft. Persistent flow over the Rockies to our west will encourage the development of lee surface troughing, resulting in southwesterly winds in the Panhandles. These should combine for a noted warming trend, with highs in the 90s favored Tuesday. Additionally, this should lead to low humidity values by Tuesday, with single digit RH values possible in much of the area. That said, progged winds 700/850mb winds Tuesday are generally around or under 20 knots, so winds will generally be too light for critical fire danger to develop. As for precipitation potential, while moisture return does look to occur Tuesday, aforementioned period of downslope winds will likely reduce quality of said return in the Panhandles and, along with the rising heights aloft, prevent any convection from developing in the forecast area. The chance for a thunderstorm remains 10 percent in the SE TX Panhandle unless you consider guidance other than the NAM, in which case the chance would be closer to zero. In any case, progged deep layer shear near 20 knots suggests severe risk is also very low aside from a stray damaging gust given the favored deep, well-mixed boundary layer. Ferguson && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Wednesday looks to be the hottest day as southwest flow will push up some very warm air, and 850mb temperatures look to be in the upper 20C range, pushing close to 30C. We are looking at another dryline setup on Wednesday evening, but some soundings indicate very strong capping east of the dryline, and models are starting to pull back on the precipitation east of the dryline. We are outlooked by SPC from Amarillo to Guymon east for severe weather, and if the cap can break than there`s plenty of dynamics to support severe storms with all hazards. The Cap...This has been the story of the past month, that we have plenty of ingredients for severe weather, but we just can`t break that cap. So we`ll continue to keep an eye on the east for a severe threat on Wednesday evening, but it`s highly conditional. Thursday`s highs will be cooled off a bit for the north, but still looks to be in the 80s across the south, as the front stalls across the Panhandles. We might get a few showers or storms across the Panhandles along the frontal boundary. Friday the trough should be through and most areas will be in the mid to upper 70s. Some models are hinting at a rapid departure of the trough and transition to a warmer zonal flow. So will not rule out high being bumped back up into the low 80s for Friday if this trend continues. Saturday zonal flow will shift to southwest flow and it looks like we may have a shortwave move across the area which certainly looks to trigger some scattered to possibly widespread showers and storms. NBM pops in the 20 to 40 percent range look reasonable at this time. Skies may be mostly cloudy on Saturday with the wave moving across and therefore highs are being held to the upper 70s to lower 80s. Sunday looks to be another transition back to zonal flow, with perhaps another shortwave embedded for a isolated shower or storm and highs in the 80s. Weber && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR conditions are extremely likely (95%) to prevail over the next 24 hours at all sites, with an incredibly small chance for a visibility reduction at DHT due to a passing shower over the next few hours but, even if rain occurs, VFR conditions are still favored to prevail. Ferguson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 82 52 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 82 54 93 53 / 10 0 0 0 Boise City OK 76 46 86 44 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 87 55 96 57 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 83 50 93 51 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 82 50 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 83 54 92 59 / 0 0 10 0 Dalhart TX 79 44 89 44 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 81 48 90 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 83 50 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 82 56 93 59 / 10 0 0 0 Pampa TX 82 54 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 83 55 92 59 / 0 0 10 10 Wellington TX 84 56 92 60 / 0 0 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...77