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000
FXUS64 KAMA 161714 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1214 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, AND IF THEY DO,
THEY COULD POSE A THREAT TO KAMA 21Z-00Z AND KGUY 00Z-02Z. HOWEVER,
IF STORMS DEVELOP, THE COVERAGE WILL BE SO LOW THAT WE`RE NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A DIRECT IMPACT AT EITHER TAF SITE. IF A
-SHRA/-TSRA DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TAF SITE, BRIEF VARIABLE AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 55 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KAMA
AND KGUY 0730Z-16Z. HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES, AND IT`S POSSIBLE LIFR
CONDITIONS COULD ALSO DEVELOP 11Z-14Z.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG WORDING AND ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPS.

DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AREAS ARE
BEGINNING TO THIN. AS A RESULT, TEMPS HAVE WARMED QUICKLY, DESPITE
THE RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE WINDS. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A WEAK DRY LINE
WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES, ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM
GUYMON TO AMARILLO. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT SURFACE
CONFLUENCE AND MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE.
ADDITIONALLY, A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE IMPINGING ON THE DRY LINE
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM, MAINLY IN AN AREA
BETWEEN A BOISE CITY TO CANYON LINE AND A CLAUDE TO HOOKER LINE.
HOWEVER, 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, SO IF ANY STORMS ARE GOING TO DEVELOP,
THEY WILL HAVE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO INITIATE. IF STORMS
CAN DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES, A COUPLE WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
BECOME SEVERE. OUR MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES MAY SPIKE AS HIGH AS 2300
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP AND CAN PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, A SECONDARY
CONCERN FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS WILL EVOLVE AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES. STORMS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 11 PM. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND
POINT-N-CLICK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AT KAMA DUE TO EXPANDING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS A
MERE 15 MILES WEST OF THE TERMINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE/DURATION OF STORMS WILL BE LOW SO
CONFIDENCE ONLY SUPPORTS A MENTION OF SCATTERED CUMULUS AT THIS
TIME. IN ADDITION...PROGS SUGGEST THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 17/06Z. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED 1KFT CIGS AT KAMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.  FOR TODAY...
PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN THREE FOURTHS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL BE SITUATED.

HAVE REORIENTED CONFIGURATION OF THUNDERSTORM POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.  HAVE CONCENTRATED FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG
EXPECTED ZONE OF HIGHER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER 700 MB
THETA-E...WITH POTENTIAL FOR EASTWARD MOVEMENT DURING THE EVENING.
THUS...FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IS EXCLUDED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS REMAINING SECTIONS.  WILL STILL MENTION POSSIBLE STRONG TO
SEVERE IN HWO DUE TO ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.  EXPECT COVERAGE
TO BE LIMITED BY STRENGTH OF CAP.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT AND DRY...WITH SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE REACHING 100 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...WHERE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED AHEAD OF DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROF.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  DRY FORECAST THEREAFTER.

MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MONDAY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  APPEARS THAT NOTABLE COOLING ON MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH ALL SECTIONS BELOW 90 ON TUESDAY.
GRADUAL WARMUP COMMENCES ON WEDNESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.  ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ONE
THIRD OF THE PANHANDLES.  ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
SATURDAY AND AND SUNDAY.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

SP/JJ